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Will S.W.A.T. Finally Make Colin Farrell a Superstar?

August 9th, 2003

Two new films have wide releases this week, one of which was already released on Wednesday. Reviews for both movies started out strong, but only one was able to hold on to the positive press.

This week sees the release of Colin Farrell's fourth of five movies this year. Each one will either bring him closer to superstardom or overexposure. And while it's almost a sure thing S.W.A.T. will finish first, it looks like this movie won't make Colin Farrell a superstar. Reviews started out strong, over 80% on Wednesday, but have now fallen to just over 50%, and they could fall farther as the weekend progresses. In the end $25 million for the weekend and a total take equal to its production budget are in the cards.

My prediction for Freaky Friday's Wednesday opening was right on the money with $6 million. However, my prediction that the reviews would take a drop was not. In fact, reviews have increased to 89%. Because of this I'm increasing my prediction for the weekend to $20 million.

After disappointing figures its first week, American Wedding will start to quickly drop down the list landing in third place this week. Its box office will be cut in half to just under $17 million, which is better than most this summer.

Its weekday numbers are tracking on par with last week, but Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl is starting to shed theatres so a slightly bigger drop-off than last week is in the cards. That still leaves Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl $15 million and just shy of Bruce Almighty. It should beat that movie sometime mid-week.

The battle for fifth place is too close to call at this point. Seabiscuit did have a miniscule 15% drop last week, but it also had a more than 20% increase in theatre count. And without a significant increase in theatres with week I see a much larger drop in box office, down to $13 million. That's the same number I see for Spy Kids 3-D: Game Over. That would bring its three week total to $90 million, ahead of Spy Kids 2's total run.

Nemo Watch takes a break this week as there are no milestone that Finding Nemo is likely to cross this week. At least not on the domestic front.

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Filed under: Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl, Seabiscuit, S.W.A.T., Spy Kids 3-D: Game Over, Freaky Friday, American Wedding