The Numbers News - July 2015
| ← June 2015 | August 2015 → |
Limited and VOD Releases: Summer is Coming to an End
July 30, 2015
It is a bad time of the year to release a limited release. It is too late into summer to think a limited release can expand wide enough to gain mainstream success before summer ends. At the same time, it is far too early for Awards Season buzz to have an effect at the box office. This partially explains why there are so few films on this week's list and fewer still have any chance at box office success. There are only two films on this week's list with strong buzz and overwhelmingly positive reviews. Best of Enemies and The End of the Tour. Both could do well on the Per Theater Chart this weekend, but The End of the Tour is the only film with a shot at expanding significantly.
More...
Contest: KISS of an Angel
July 30, 2015
August begins next weekend and there are four wide releases. However, only Fantastic Four has a real shot at earning first place. (Ricki and the Flash should become a midlevel hit, but the other two will likely barely make any noise at the box office.) Because of this, Fantastic Four is the only real choice target film for this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Fantastic Four.
Weekend Predictions: Mission has Impossible Mission
July 30, 2015
Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation shouldn't have any trouble earning first place over the weekend. In fact, it should make more than the rest of the top five combined. On the downside, its real competition isn't the other films in theaters, but Guardians of the Galaxy, which set the August weekend box office record when it opened this weekend last year. Rogue Nation could have a record-opening for the franchise and still not come close to Guardians of the Galaxy. The only other new wide release of the week is Vacation, which started on Wednesday. Its reviews are terrible and its box office chances are not much better. Since nothing will top Guardians of the Galaxy's record-breaking opening, it seems 2015 will end the month on a losing note. Hopefully this is just a momentary hiccup and not an omen for how the rest of the summer will go.
More...
International Box Office: Monster Hunt Chomps Chinese Record Book
July 29, 2015
Monster Hunt remained in first place on the international chart with $46 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $225 million. The film again dominated its home market (China) earning $113.16 million over the full week for a running tally of $221.41 million after eleven days of release. It became the biggest Chinese film in its native market and the third biggest film of all time, behind Transformers: Age of Extinction and the current record holder, Furious 7.
More...
Contest: Pixel Perfect: Winning Announcement
July 29, 2015
The winners of our Pixel Perfectcontest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Pixels opening weekend were...
More...
Per Theater Chart: Phoenix Reborn
July 28, 2015
-1-News.jpg)
None of the wide releases earned a spot in the $10,000 club, but at least we had a couple of limited releases that found their way there. The number one film was Phoenix with an average of $15,148 in two theaters. Samba was next with an average of $12,294, also in two theaters.
More...
Weekend Wrap-Up: Ant-Man Towers Over Pixels
July 28, 2015
Ant-Man unexpectedly repeated on top of the weekend box office, as Pixels failed to meet expectations by a sizable margin. In fact, only Southpaw beat expectations. The overall box office sunk as a result, down 22% from last weekend to $151 million. Worse still, this was 2.3% lower than the same weekend last year. Fortunately, 2015 has won a lot more weeks than it has lost and has built up an impressive 8.2% lead over 2014 at $6.45 billion to $5.96 billion. It isn't impossible for 2015 to lose a lead that large, but I'm cautiously optimistic that it can see this lead grow through to the end of the year.
More...
Home Market Releases for July 28th, 2015
July 27, 2015
It is a terrible week for limited releases. There is only one first-run release, Home, but its reviews were only mixed. The next biggest release, Justice League: Gods and Monsters, is a direct-to-DVD animated movie. That's a huge drop in sales potential. Neither of those releases are contenders for Pick of the Week. The best new releases are Mystery Science Theater 3000: XXXIII and White God on DVD or Blu-ray. It was a close call, but in the end I went with MST3K.
More...
Featured Blu-ray / DVD Review: X-Men: Days of Future Past: The Rogue Cut
July 27, 2015
X-Men: Days of Future Past came out last year and earned plenty of praise from critics. It also became the biggest worldwide hit in the franchise. Now it is being re-released on DVD or Blu-ray as something called The Rogue Cut. How is it different from the theatrical release? And is it worth the double-dip?
More...
Home Market Numbers: Maggie Can't Wake Up the Box Office
July 26, 2015
There was not a single first run release among the new releases for July 7th, which meant Get Hard remained on top of the combined DVD and Blu-ray chart for July 12th. It sold an additional 268,000 units and generated $5.21 million for the week, giving it totals of 760,000 units / $13.75 million after two.
More...
Weekend Estimates: Ant-Man Defeats Poor Pixels
July 26, 2015
Three new wide releases and three returning movies that are still pulling in good crowds will produce a box office chart with no knock-out winner this weekend. That’s in large part thanks to a disappointing debut from Pixels. The Adam Sandler/Kevin James-comedy/adventure-Ghostbusters/wannabe will earn about $24 million this weekend, according to Sony’s Sunday estimate. That puts it in danger of not even earning back its marketing budget domestically, let alone starting to recover the $88 million production budget. It also means that Ant-Man will top the charts for a second weekend.
More...
Friday Estimates: Pixels Struggling in Crowded Market
July 25, 2015
Three mid-tier new releases combined with three returning hits made for a very crowded market on Friday, with all six films earning over $5 million for the day. Pixels emerged the winner with $9.2 million, according to studio estimates, but that far from guarantees a weekend win for the film. Based on previous opening weekend ratios for Adam Sandler movies, we can expect a Friday-weekend multiplier for the film around 2.9, which puts it on course for a $27 million debut. Current studio tracking suggests it will fall short of that mark, with more like $24 million. Either way, that’s not a great start for a film with an $88 million budget and a seemingly attractive premise. Sandler’s drawing power is clearly on the wane, at least domestically. The film has somewhat better prospects overseas, and early reports show it performing well.
More...
Limited and VOD Releases: Exorcising Your Options
July 24, 2015
Every once and a while, I feel the need to apologize for the pun in the headline. This is one of those weeks. It is also one of those weeks where I can't find a limited release that has a good chance at earning some mainstream success. Unexpected is the biggest release, but its reviews suggest it will do better on Video on Demand than in theaters. There are a few documentaries that might do well on the art house circuit, but it is unlikely that any have what it takes to find mainstream success.
More...
Contest: Mission: Possible
July 24, 2015
Next weekend, there are are two wide releases, one of which, Vacation, is opening on Wednesday, which normally disqualifies it as a choice for target film. The other, Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation, should dominate the box office. As a result, it is the only real choice target film for this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Yu-Gi-Oh Gx: Season 2 on DVD.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a copy of Tooken on The Encore of Tony Duran on .
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
More...
Weekend Predictions: Is Pixels Poised to Top the Weekend Chart?
July 24, 2015
Pixels leads a group of three wide releases looking to battle for limited box office dollars. It appears to be on track for first place, but with not as much as I anticipated at the beginning of the month. This is partially explained by its reviews which are lower than the 30% to 40% positive range I was anticipating. Paper Towns is earning much better reviews, but still barely above the overall positive level. Finally there's Southpaw, which is earning mixed reviews and its buzz is weak, so it will likely be outside the top five over the weekend. Both Ant-Man and Minions should continue to perform well, with the former having a shot at first place, if Pixels flops. This weekend last year, there were two wide releases that did quite well, Lucy and Hercules. I don't think any of the new releases this week will come close to earning the same as Lucy did, but I think the depth is better this year, so 2015 will still come out ahead in the year-over-year comparison.
More...
International Box Office: Monster Hunt is Monster Hit
July 23, 2015
It is a special week on the international chart, as we have an international film in first place. Monster Hunt earned first place in China with an estimated $72 million over the weekend and a total opening of $107.58 million. (This includes less than $1 million in early previews.) This movie is a romantic comedy, of sorts, set in a world of CGI monsters. This is the kind of film that could have appeal in many markets outside of the usual markets Chinese films play in. Additionally, this is the kind of opening that will make distributors here interested in obtaining the rights. It is too soon to tell if it will have a global run, but it will be worth keeping an eye on.
More...
Contest: Ant Machina: Winning Announcement
July 23, 2015
The winners of our Ant Machina contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Ant Man opening weekend were...
More...
Get Hard Tops Soft Home Market
July 22, 2015
Only one of the new releases for June 30th was a really big seller on the DVD and Blu-ray chart for July 5th. That was Get Hard, which led the way with 503,000 units / $8.81 million during its first week of release. Its opening week Blu-ray share was 31%. This is lower than the market average, but not that bad for a comedy.
More...
Per Theater Chart: Irrational has Very Reasonable Debut
July 22, 2015
The $10,000 club was led by Irrational Man with $175,312 in five theaters for an average of $35,062. While this was the best average of the weekend, it was the weakest opening weekend for a Woody Allen movie since You Will Meet a Tall Dark Stranger. The Stanford Prison Experiment was next with an average of $18,757 in two theaters. Its reviews are good, but not great, so its chances to expand significantly are still just 50/50. Up next is a pair of wide releases, Ant-Man and Minions, which earned averages of $14,841 and $11,430 respectively. The final entrant in the $10,000 club was Bajrangi Bhaijaan with an average of $10,239; however, it was playing in 256 theaters and arguably it had the most impressive opening for any limited release this week. This is the second weekend in a row a Bollywood film did this well on the per theater chart.
More...
Home Market Releases for July 21st, 2015
July 21, 2015
I can't wait till the TV on DVD releases start coming out. I will finally have something to talk about on the home market. This week, according to Amazon.com, the best-selling new release is What We Do In Shadows. The film earned excellent reviews and did well in limited release, but it isn't a number one chart-topper. The second best-selling new release of the week is Scooby-Doo and Kiss. ... What? From what few reviews I could find, it is better than it looks. That said, the Pick of the Week is still What We Do In Shadows.
More...
Weekend Wrap-Up: Ant-Man Tops Terrific Weekend
July 20, 2015
The top of the box office had a small surprise, as Ant-Man earned first place with $57.23 million over the weekend. This is a little lower than predicted, but Minions really collapsed, so Ant-Man easily won the race for the top of the box office race. Meanwhile, Trainwreck had a solid third place opening and could be on its way to $100 million, thanks in part to its target demographic and to its reviews. Overall, the box office pulled in $194 million. This is 9.6% lower than last weekend, but more importantly, it is 30% higher than the same weekend last year. 30%. That's a massive margin of victory. Year-to-date, 2015 has pulled in $6.20 billion, which is 8.1% more than 2014's pace. Summer is winding down, so 2015 is in a great place moving into the slower part of the year. Even if August and September are slower than average, there's almost no chance 2015 will blow through the $460 million lead it has over 2014.
More...
Featured Blu-ray / DVD Review: The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
July 20, 2015
The Best-Exotic Marigold Hotel is a film that cost just $10 million to make, but pulled in a global box office of $135 million. Needless to say, a sequel was made and The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel hit theaters earlier this year. Comedies rarely produce sequels that live up to the original film, but is this one an exception? If not, is it still worth checking out, if it isn't quite as good?
More...
Weekend Estimates: Ant-Man Misses Out, Trainwreck Breaks Out
July 19, 2015
Perhaps we’re seeing the first signs of multiplex fatigue? In the midst of a buoyant Summer at the movies, Ant-Man will debut with around $58 million, according to Sunday estimates, about 10% below expectations, and well short of the $94 million earned by Guardians of the Galaxy this time last year. It’s a very good opening, to be sure, but the second slightly disappointing debut from the Marvel Cinematic Universe this year, after The Avengers: Age of Ultron’s $191 million opening weekend back in May. We’re talking disappointment of the level of seeing Babe Ruth only hit one home run in a game here, so we need to put things in perspective. It’s the twelfth straight $50 million-plus opening for the franchise in seven years—an unprecedented box office run.
More...
Friday Estimates: Ant-Man Stands Tall on Opening Friday
July 18, 2015
Ant-Man opened in first place with $22.64 million on Friday, which puts it well ahead of Minions on the Friday box office chart. On the other hand, it was a little disappointing compared to expectations. Figuring out where it will end up is deceptively tricky given the number of other Marvel Cinematic Universe films to compare it to. Ant-Man's reviews continued to tick up, and are now at 80% positive—in the same range as the first Captain America movie. It also had a similar opening day to that film. However, Captain America opened before The Avengers and one could argue that every film after that should be considered a sequel, which would tend them towards being even more front-loaded than original films. Factoring that in, look for Ant-Man to post around $56 million over its opening weekend, which will give it an easy first place debut. Unless its legs are as long as Guardians of the Galaxy’s, it won't reach $200 million in total, but it should top its budget (reportedly $130 million) so it will become a box office success. Analysts hoping for the first MCU bomb will have to wait.
More...
Limited and VOD Releases: Holmes is on the Case
July 17, 2015
There are very few films on this week's list that have a real shot at earning mainstream success. I would like to think Court or A Hard Day could do so, but they are both foreign-language films and that's usually too big of an obstacle to overcome. Mr. Holmes has both the cast and the reviews to thrive, but it is playing in more than 300 theaters. That might be too many to thrive. Let's hope I'm being too pessimistic.
More...
Thursday Night: Ant-Man’s $6.4 Million Points to Healthy Weekend
July 17, 2015
Ant-Man posted a reported $6.4 million on Thursday evening, a healthy number for a movie that’s not a sequel. Although it sort of is a sequel, or at least sort of a franchise film. It’s certainly considered part of the Marvel Cinematic Universe, so looking for comparable Thursday night openings presents a bit of a challenge. The bottom line, though, looks as though the film is headed into the weekend a little ahead of expectations.
More...
Contest: Pixel Perfect
July 16, 2015
Next weekend, there are three wide releases, two of which should do well at the box office. Paper Towns will very likely be the best film coming out next week, while Pixels will very likely be the biggest. (On the other hand, Southpaw looks like busted Oscar-bait and I'm not bullish about its chances.) I don't know if Pixels will be one of the biggest hits of the summer, but it should be the biggest hit of the week and as such, it is the target film for this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Pixels.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel on Blu-ray.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a copy The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel on Blu-ray.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a Frankenprize featuring a previously reviewed DVD or Blu-ray.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
More...
Weekend Predictions: How Large Will Ant-Man Grow?
July 16, 2015
There could be an interesting race on top of the box office charts this weekend, as Ant-Man will be looking to unseat Minions. However, while I think Ant-Man will come out on top on Friday, I think Minions will repeat over the weekend. The other new release of the week is Trainwreck, which has seen its reviews fall from 100% positive to a mere 90% positive. The amazing reviews and the success of R-rated female-centric films lately suggests it has the potential to reach $100 million. Inside Out and Jurassic World will also both hit milestones, so it should be an exciting weekend. This weekend last year, none of the three wide releases were particularly strong, which left Dawn of the Planet of the Apes in first place for the second weekend in a row with $36.25 million. Both Minions and Ant-Man will top that. Trainwreck might top that as well. It should be a good weekend for 2015 in the year-over-year comparison.
More...
International Box Office: Minions Crowd Out the Competition
July 15, 2015
Matching its stellar domestic debut, Minions rose to first place with $130.7 million on 9,606 screens in 56 markets at the international box office at the weekend for totals of $287.77 million internationally and $403.49 million worldwide. The film debuted in 30 new markets, earned first place in all of them, and broke the record for the biggest animated opening in 28 of them. This includes Russia, where it earned $15.12 million on 1,209 screens, which is the biggest opening in that market, animated or otherwise. Its biggest opening was in Mexico, where the film earned $15.72 million on 692 screens over the weekend. Meanwhile, it earned first place in France with a total opening of $12 million on 868 screens. It remains above Despicable Me 2's pace and this puts it on track to reach $1 billion worldwide.
More...
Contest: Don't Be Slow: Winning Announcement
July 14, 2015
The winners of our Don't Be Slow contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Minions opening weekend were...
More...
Home Market Numbers: Life's A Beach
July 14, 2015
The list of new releases for June 23rd was not good and the best DVD release, Teen Beach 2, wasn't even released on Blu-ray. This left holdovers on top of the DVD and Blu-ray chart for June 28th and The Kingsman: Secret Service claimed top spot with 198,000 units / $3.41 million units for the week for totals of 1.11 million units / $17.84 million after three weeks of release.
More...
Per Theater Chart: Tangerine Has Sweet Start
July 14, 2015
The $10,000 club was busier that it was last week with four films earning a per theater average of more than $10,000. This includes the overall number one film, Minions, which earned an average of $26,905 in over 4,000 theaters. The best limited release was Tangerine with an average $15,171 in four theaters. I thought this might be a little too niche to find a large audience, but perhaps I was wrong. Up next is Baahubali: The Beginning, which was also a surprise hit with an average of $13,559 in 236 theaters. It is very rare for a Bollywood film to do that well. The final film in the $10,000 club was Do I Sound Gay? with $11,000 in its lone theater.
More...
Weekend Wrap-Up: Minions Crush Competition, but Fall Short of Record
July 14, 2015
As expected Minions dominated the box office earning first place with more than a 50% share of the total box office. It became the fourth film to open with more than $100 million this year. Three of those were released by Universal. On the other hand, the less said about The Gallows or Self/Less the better. To be fair, The Gallows earned more during its opening day that it cost to make, but its advertising budget is much bigger than its production budget. Meanwhile, Self/Less barely topped the Mendoza Line (earning only just over $2,000 per theater). The overall box office reached $215 million, which was 59% more than last week and 43% the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2015 has earned $5.92 billion, which is 6.4% higher than last year's pace.
More...
Home Market Releases for July 14th, 2015
July 13, 2015
It is both a good and a bad week on the home market. The biggest new release is Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2. That's bad. However, there are also a trio of limited releases coming out this week that are easily contenders for Pick of the Week: Clouds of Sils Maria, Ex Machina, and It Follows. It is really a coin-toss between those three, but in the end, I went with Clouds of Sils Maria - Buy from Amazon: DVD.
More...
Featured Blu-ray / DVD Review: Ex Machina
July 13, 2015
Ex Machina is a high-concept Sci-fi movie that I thought had a chance to do well in limited release. ... It earned just over $25 million in theaters and is currently one of the biggest limited release hits of the year. The fact that it found an audience is excellent. Did it deserve this success? And does the DVD / Blu-ray live up to its theatrical success?
More...
Weekend Estimates: Minions Have Second-Best Animated Opening
July 12, 2015
2015 is becoming a golden year for blockbuster openings, and a platinum year for Universal. The studio is celebrating yet again, with Minions heading to a gigantic $115.2 million projected opening weekend. That’s the second-best debut of all time for an animated film (see all-time opening weekend records), although, incredibly, it’s only the third-best weekend for the studio this year after the debuts of Furious 7 and Jurassic World. The studio, which would usually consider a 12% market share an excellent year, has so far earned a whopping 26% share for 2015—quite literally off the charts.
More...
Friday Estimates: Minions On Pace for Century Opening, Perhaps Record
July 11, 2015
The Friday estimates are in and Minions pulled in $46.2 million. On the one hand, this makes my job as a box office analyst easy, because all I have to say is “Wow!” On the other hand, it is hard to compare this film to others to calculate its most likely weekend haul, because there are so few animated films that opened this well.
More...
Thursday Night: Minions Have Explosive Start
July 10, 2015
Minions made an explosive debut on Thursday night, earning $6.2 million from evening showings, which is more than any other film earned for the entire day. However, those numbers will be wrapped up into its Friday numbers, which we will talk about tomorrow. How good is this? To put this into perspective,
Minions made an explosive debut on Thursday night, earning $6.2 million from evening showings, which is more than any other film earned for the entire day. However, those numbers will be wrapped-up into its Friday numbers, which we will talk about tomorrow. How good is this? To put this into perspective, Despicable Me 2 earned $4.7 million during its Tuesday night shows and that film went on to earn $84 million during its opening weekend and had a total opening of $143 million. Granted, that film also earned better reviews and opened during July 4th weekend. Even so, a $100 million opening seems very likely. We will know more by Saturday.
More...
Limited and VOD Releases: What Films to see on Our Holiday
July 10, 2015
Very few movies on this week's list have a real shot at box office success. Stations of the Cross and Tangerine are both earning amazing reviews, but both are niche market releases. Many movies are also earning good reviews, like What We Did on Our Holiday, but are playing on VOD, so they likely won't find audiences in theaters.
More...
Contest: Ant Machina
July 10, 2015
Next weekend, there are are two wide releases, Ant-man and Trainwreck, and while I think Trainwreck will be a bigger hit than most analysts are predicting, Ant-man is still going to dominate the box office. Because of this, it is the clear choice for the target film for this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Ant-man.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Ex Machina on DVD.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a copy of Ex Machina on DVD.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will win a Frankenprize featuring a previously reviewed DVD or Blu-ray.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
More...
Weekend Predictions: Will Minions Top $100 Million?
July 9, 2015
Of the three wide releases this week, only Minions is dominating the box office tracking. Unfortunately, its reviews are nowhere near as strong as they were at the beginning of the month. Even worse, they are twice as good as the reviews for Self/Less and The Gallows. The Gallows should earn a spot in the top five during its opening weekend, but the prospects for Self/Less are not as good. This weekend last year, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes opened with $72.61 million. Minions should crush that number. Also, last year only three films earned more than $10 million over the weekend, while this year, the top five should do the same. 2015 should earn a solid win in the year-over-year comparison.
More...
International Box Office: Genisys Takes Over the World
July 9, 2015
Terminator: Genisys expanded its market count to 47 over the weekend, which allowed it to rise to first place with $74.0 million for a two-week total of $85.5 million internationally. Its biggest new market was Russia, where it dominated with $11.17 million on 2,192 screens over the weekend. South Korea was close behind with $9.24 million on 1,113 screens for a total opening of $11.06 million. The film earned first place in Mexico with $4.73 million on 1,307 for a total opening of $6.18 million. It only managed second place in Brazil with $3.9 million on 1,012. In all four markets, the film set records for the franchise. It wasn't as lucky in the U.K., where it opened in second place with $5.83 million in 536 theaters. That's about on par with its opening here in the US. The goal for the film is to earn over $200 million internationally and $300 million worldwide. If it can get there, then the film will likely break even, eventually. On the other hand, "breaking even" isn't enough to justify continuing the reboot trilogy.
More...
Contest: Terminate Maggie: Winning Announcement
July 8, 2015
The winners of our Terminate Maggie contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Terminator: Genisys opening weekend were...
Per Theater Chart: Amy Earns an A
July 8, 2015
-1-News.jpg)
Only one film was in the $10,000 club this week. Amy earned an average of $37,083 in six theaters. That's amazing for a documentary, but this genre rarely expands truly wide. Let's see what happens next weekend and maybe I will be proven wrong.
More...
Home Market Releases for July 7th, 2015
July 8, 2015
It's a slow week, which should come as no surprise. There are no major releases and even among the smaller releases, there are few that are must haves. As far as Pick of the Week contenders go, Dude Bro Party Massacre 3 is the best. It is the Pick of the Week, but you can only get it on the Official Site. I think it is worth the price for the Superfan Edition, but I also backed the Kickstarter at the Blu-ray level, so my judgment is not to be trusted.
More...
Featured Blu-ray / DVD Review: Slow West
July 7, 2015
Slow West opened in two theaters, but it quickly fell apart when it tried to expand. This is disappointing, as its reviews are more than 90% positive. Is this film aimed too much at critics? Or will it find an audience on the home market?
More...
Unexpected Trailer
July 7, 2015
Drama starring Cobie Smulders and Gail Bean opens July 24 ... Full movie details...
More...
Weekend Wrap-Up: New Releases are on the Outside
July 6, 2015
It was not a good weekend for new releases, as the top two spots went to holdovers. Fortunately, Inside Out earned first place over Jurassic World, because I had no idea what I was going to do for an image this time around. (That's not true. I was going to look for pictures of corgis dressed as dinosaurs.) Neither Terminator: Genisys or Magic Mike XXL matched expectations. At least Terminator: Genisys came close. Overall, the box office plummeted 26% from last weekend to just $135 million. Granted, that's still 2.2% higher than the same weekend last year, but boy have we come down from the highs we saw just a few weeks ago. Year-to-date, 2015 has earned $5.62 billion, which is 6.0% above 2014's pace of $5.31 million. 2015 would really need to sink for a number of weeks before that lead was in trouble, but after this week, that scenario is a little more likely.
More...
Featured Blu-ray / DVD Review: Maggie
July 6, 2015
Maggie is a film starring Arnold Schwarzenegger, who hasn't had a massive hit since his return to acting post-politics. In fact, most of the films he's starred in have struggled mightily. Maggie was given an early VOD release, which might be a sign that the studio gave up on the movie. Or it might be a sign that VOD is becoming more lucrative, so much so that VOD can cover this film's modest production budget.
More...
Home Market Numbers: New Releases Chap My Hide
July 5, 2015
Back on schedule, not that there's much to talk about. The biggest new release for the week ending June 21 was Chappie, which barely made more than $30 million domestically. This meant a holdover, American Sniper, rose to top spot on the home market chart with 378,000 units / $5.30 million for the week. This gives the film totals of 2.76 million units / $49.44 million after a month of release.
More...
Featured DVD Review: Teen Beach 2
July 5, 2015
Before we get started, I should point out that I've never seen Teen Beach Movie, but it did earn amazing reviews. So when I got a chance to review Teen Beach 2, I jumped at it. Is it as good as the first film's reviews would suggest? Or was making a sequel a mistake?
More...
Weekend Estimates: Inside Out, Jurassic World Neck and Neck for July 4 Honors
July 5, 2015
Two much-anticipated sequels have fallen short of knocking the two incumbents from the top of the box office chart this weekend. Terminator: Genisys will come closest with a mediocre $28.7 million three-day weekend, and $44.1 million after five days in release. That’s a couple of million behind the two returning giants, which are essentially tied for the weekend at this point. Jurassic World has the edge according to the official studio estimates, with Universal putting its total at $30.94 million for the weekend, compared to Disney’s $30.11 million projection for Inside Out. Other tracking we’ve seen suggests that the films will both end up with a shade over $30 million. The film’s respective performance on Sunday will determine who ends up the weekend winner.
More...
Friday Estimates: Inside Out On Top as New Releases are Not Magical
July 4, 2015
Inside Out earned first place on the Friday chart, just ahead of Jurassic World $12.5 million to $11.8 million. This is bad news, as the new releases will be well behind films that are three and four weeks old respectively. At this pace, Inside Out should top $30 million over the weekend, but barely. Jurassic World will earn about $28 million. This is roughly in line with Friday's predictions. On the other hand...
More...
Home Market Numbers: Kings Among Men
July 4, 2015
It was a busy week in real life, with the July Preview, Canada Day, and July 4th holidays messing with schedules. Because of that, the home market numbers were late this week. However, this week's numbers will be up in the next two days, so it was a very short disruption. That said, there's not much to talk about when it comes to new releases on the home video sales charts for the week ending June 14. Sure, The Kingsman: Secret Service earned first place on the home market chart, but there was only one other new release in the top five and only a few others in the top 30. The number one release of the week sold 591,000 units and generated $10.29 million in consumer spending. This includes an opening week Blu-ray share of 51%. Anything above 50% is worth celebrating; however, the overall numbers are still lower than anticipated.
More...
Limited and VOD Releases: Have Faith in Limited Releases
July 3, 2015
There are a few limited releases on this week's list that are earning overwhelming positive reviews, but they are all documentaries. Documentaries rarely have breakout success, but Amy is the one with the best shot. Jimmy's Hall is the best of the rest and while I don't think it will expand wide, it should be the biggest hit on this week's list.
More...
Contest: Don't Be Slow
July 3, 2015
Next weekend, there is only one new release that has a shot at first place, Minions. The other two might not even make the top five. This makes Minions the only real choice for the target film for this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Minions.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Slow West on DVD.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a copy of Slow West on DVD.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will win a Frankenprize featuring a previously reviewed DVD or Blu-ray.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
More...
Weekend Predictions: Will the New Releases Free the Box Office from Jurassic's Grip?
July 3, 2015
If one of the new releases doesn't earn top spot this weekend, then the box office is in trouble. Jurassic World has been in first place for three weeks in a row and even last week it only won because the new release, Ted 2, missed expectations. If it or Inside Out win this weekend, it will be because Terminator: Genisys and Magic Mike XXL are both struggling. Fortunately, the two films topped the chart on Wednesday during their opening day, but not by enough to ensure they come out on top over the full weekend. It could be a very close race for first place. This weekend last year was led by Transformers: Age of Extinction with $37 million, while Tammy was second with an opening of $21.58 million over the three-day weekend and $33.51 million over five days. The overall box office take was just $133 million last year, while the top five could top that this year. 2015 should have no trouble coming out on top in the year-over-year competition.
More...
International Box Office: Billion Dollar Dinosaurs
July 2, 2015
(As I warned previously, we've run out of images for Jurassic World, so we are down to Picture Unrelated. And no, I will not explain the context of the image. I will say the TV show it comes from is surprisingly good.)
Jurassic World completed a hat-trick at the weekend by earning first place with $82.5 million in 67 markets for totals of $737.5 million internationally and $1.238 billion worldwide. The film entered the top ten on the all-time worldwide box office chart over the weekend and has already moved into seventh place. Its biggest single market was China, where it made $38.07 million over the full week for a total of $206.57 million after three weekends. Hopefully this is the last weekend the film spends in top spot, as new releases finally rise to overtake it. If it is still in first place next week, it will be a sign that the box office is slowing down.
More...
Contest: Lather Up: Winning Announcement
July 2, 2015
The winners of our Lather Up contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Ted 2 opening weekend were...
More...
Per Theater Chart: Wide Releases Run Away from the Pack
July 2, 2015
There were only two films in the $10,000 club and they were the wide releases that earned the top two spots on the overall box office chart. Jurassic World earned an average of $12,990, while Inside Out was very close behind with an average of $12,663. The best limited release was Runoff, which earned $9,515 in one theater.
More...
2015 Preview: July
July 1, 2015
June was a much better month than expected due to two films, Jurassic World and Inside Out. Had those two films merely matched expectations, then 2015 would have likely fallen behind 2014. As for this coming month, there are five weekends in July and each week there is at least one film with the potential to reach $100 million. Most weeks there are two films that at least have a shot at getting to the century mark. The biggest hit of the month will likely be Minions, which has already opened in several international markets and it's ahead of Despicable Me 2 at the same point. That film made more than $300 million and nearly $1 billion worldwide, so any growth would be fantastic. There are also a number of potential $200 million films, led by Ant-man. Ant-man is the latest release in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, a franchise that has averaged $300 million domestically over eleven films and all of the past six films have reached at least $200 million. I'm not saying this one is guaranteed to do the same, but you can't dismiss that possibility. Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation and Pixels have smaller chances to get to $200 million, but you have to at least entertain the possibility. Additionally, last July was a lot weaker than this July looks to be, so 2015 should win in the year-over-year comparison most weeks. Or I might have let the box office success of June cloud my judgment. We will soon find out.
More...