The Numbers News - August 2015

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Weekend Wrap-Up: Compton Wins the War over the New Releases

August 31, 2015

War Room

August is over and the number one film over the full month remained in first place for the third weekend in a row. Only one of the three new releases did well, War Room, as it topped the high end of exceptions. The other two wide releases bombed, in the case of No Escape, and bombed hard, in the case of We Are Your Friends. The overall box office plummeted 17% to just $88 million over the weekend. That's so low that I double-checked the numbers. Granted, there are likely a few limited releases that we don't have weekend numbers for yet, so this number isn't final. However, even the final number won't be that much higher than this, certainly not high enough to make a real difference. This was also 21% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2015 is still ahead of 2014 by nearly $400 million at $7.39 billion to 7.00 billion, so this slump isn't terrible news. However, I would really like it to end sooner rather than later. More...

Concussion Trailer

August 31, 2015

Drama starring Will Smith, Alec Baldwin and Gugu Mbatha-Raw opens December 25 ... Full Movie Details. More...

Weekend Estimates: Compton Tops War Room for Third Win

August 30, 2015

Straight Outta Compton

Straight Outta Compton will win a third weekend at the box office, according to studio estimates released on Sunday, but it won’t be without a struggle. The biopic lost on Friday to War Room, a faith-based film that opened in just 1,135 theaters, and the weekend race will finish with just a couple of million dollars between the two films, with Compton’s $13.2 million edging out War Room’s $11 million. Compton now has $134 million in the bank, making it the fifth-highest-grossing biographical film after American Sniper ($350 million), Lincoln ($182 million), A Beautiful Mind ($170 million), and Catch Me if You Can ($165 million). If you’re playing the Oscars game at home already, it’s worth noting that three of the four films above it received Best Picture nominations (Catch Me if You Can being the odd-one-out). More...

Friday Estimates: War Room Escapes Dog Days of Summer

August 29, 2015

No Escape

Only one of the three new releases did well on Friday, and it was a film that many analysts thought would bomb. Despite earning the worst reviews and having the smallest theater count of the three new releases, War Room earned first place on Friday with $3.875 million. Faith-based films tend to have a higher internal multiplier than most films, because their target audience tends to show up at theaters on Sunday after church. Because of this, the film might open with a theater average above $10,000, which would give it an opening weekend of over $11 million. That’s probably a little too optimistic, but second place with $10 million is within reach. More...

Home Market Numbers: Home Finds a Home on the Home Market

August 28, 2015

Home

The new releases for July 28th were led by Home, which dominated the combined DVD and Blu-ray chart for August 2nd. The film sold 1.18 million units and generated $22.60 million in revenue. That was enough to put it in 16th place on the yearly chart after just one week of release. Its opening week Blu-ray share was 42%, which is good for a kids movie. More...

Limited and VOD Releases: Race to the Top

August 28, 2015

Turbo Kid

There are practically no films on this week's list that I think have a shot at box office success. That's not to say there are no films earning great reviews, but all of them have something that will hold them back. Most of the time, it's a simultaneous Video on Demand run. This includes Turbo Kid (Video on Demand); Z for Zachariah (Video on Demand); and Queen of Earth (Video on Demand). All could find audiences, but they will find them on the home market. More...

Contest: Give the Wheel a Spin

August 27, 2015

Next weekend is Labor Day long weekend, which is historically the worst long weekend at the box office all year. This year, only one film, The Transporter Refueled, is opening wide, so at least it has the box office to itself. That should help it open better. It also means it is the only choice for the target film for this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The Transporter Refueled.

Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a TV on DVD release. It could be either The Vampire Diaries: Season Six on Blu-ray or The Originals: Season Two on Blu-ray. I don't know what prize the winner will receive and neither will they, until it is delivered.

Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a Frankenprize, comprised of a previously reviewed TV on DVD full-season release. Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a second Frankenprize, comprised of a previously reviewed TV on DVD full-season release. Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay! More...

Weekend Predictions: Will the New Releases have a Friendly Reception?

August 27, 2015

We Are Your Friends

It's the last weekend of August and there are three films being dumped into theaters this week. None are expected to earn even $10 million, but there might be a bit of a race to see which of these movies will be the best of the bad group. No Escape already opened on Wednesday, but it didn't have a great start, despite playing in just over 3,000 theaters. We Are Your Friends opens on Friday in about 2,300 theaters, but it has a shot at second place. The final wide release is War Room, which is debuting in just over 1,000 theaters. However, it is a faith-based film, so it could be a surprise hit earning close to $10 million, or it might miss the Mendoza Line. Unless one or more of these films completely blows away analysts, Straight Outta Compton will remain in first place for the third weekend in a row. This weekend last year, there were two wide releases and a limited release that nearly made the top ten. That's very similar to what it is this weekend. I think it will be relatively close, but 2015 will likely fall just shy of 2014 in the year-over-year comparison. More...

International Box Office: Genisys Reborn in China

August 27, 2015

Terminator: Genisys

Terminator Genisys earned $26.97 million on Sunday in China. That was enough for first place in that market over the entire weekend. In fact, that was enough for first place internationally. Adding in one holdover market, and the movie made $27.4 million in 2 markets for totals of $264.0 million internationally and $353.1 million worldwide. One final note, China is already the film's biggest single market and it could save the franchise and make another installment likely. More...

Home Market Numbers: New Releases Suffer from a KISS of Death

August 26, 2015

Scooby-Doo and KISS! Rock and Roll Mystery

The new releases for July 21st were WOW levels of bad with not a single first-run release to mention. This left holdovers on top of the combined DVD and Blu-ray chart for July 26th. The Longest Ride remained in first place with 288,000 units / $4.64 million for the week, giving it totals of 788,000 / $13.39 million after two weeks of release. It should have no trouble cracking 1 million units sold, which will keep the studio happy. More...

Contest: Sinister Six: Winning Announcement

August 26, 2015

The winners of our Sinister Six contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Sinister 2 opening weekend were... More...

Per Theater Chart: Grandma's Road Trip to Success

August 26, 2015

Grandma

Grandma led all of the new releases, both in terms of reviews and in terms of per theater average. The film opened with $116,000 in four theaters for an average of $28,885. There was a very tight race for second place between The Quay Brothers in 35MM ($16,955 in one theater) and Learning to Drive ($16.504 in four theaters). More...

Home Market Releases for August 25th, 2015

August 25, 2015

Big Game

TV on DVD releases dominate the home market this week even more than they did last week, including five of the six best-selling new releases on Amazon.com. Despite this, none of them are contenders for Pick of the Week, at least not in my opinion. The two best are Two Days, One Night and CitizenFour. I really should select one of those for Pick of the Week... but I'm going with Big Game on Blu-ray, because I'm a big goofball. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Box Office Assassinated

August 25, 2015

Hitman: Agent 47

It was an ugly weekend, for the most part. Straight Outta Compton fell about as fast as expected, but that was more than enough to dominate the new releases and push it past an important milestone. On the other hand, the biggest new release, Sinister 2, only managed third place, while the less said about Hitman: Agent 47 and American Ultra, the better. Overall, the box office fell 27% to $107 million. Like I said on Friday, summer is most definitely over. Worse still, this figure is 7.3% lower than the same weekend last year. Had all three new releases matched expectations, the box office would have practically matched last year's pace. Year-to-date, 2015 has pulled in $7.26 billion, which is 5.3% head of 2014's running tally of $6.90 billion. More...

Featured DVD Review: Clouds of Sils Maria

August 25, 2015

Clouds of Sils Maria

Clouds of Sils Maria is a French co-production that earned a lot of praise in its native market. Not only was it nominated for the Palme d'Or at the Cannes Film Festival, but it earned six César Award nominations, including a win for Kristen Stewart for Best Supporting Actress. She became the first American actress to win a César. Unfortunately, despite this praise, the movie never caught on here in theaters earning just under $2 million in limited release. Granted, that's better than a lot of films manage, but still disappointing compared to the critical praise. Did it deserve better? Or was the film geared towards critics and won't appeal to the average moviegoer? More...

Weekend Estimates: Compton Brushes Off Newcomers

August 23, 2015

Straight Outta Compton

As expected, Straight Outta Compton is continuing to dominate at the box office this weekend, with a second weekend of $26.76 million and a total of $111.5 million projected by Universal on Sunday morning. In fact, Compton is so dominant that the music biopic will earn more than the combined grosses of all three debutants. Mission: Impossible—Rogue Nation’s fourth-weekend $11.7 million will be enough for second place. More...

Friday Estimates: Sinister Starts Strong, but Can't Save Summer

August 22, 2015

Sinister 2

As expected, Sinister 2 was the best of the new releases, earning $4.7 million on Friday. This is “strong” in the loosest sense of the word. The horror sequel had an opening day that was 37% lower than the first film’s and it is only going to get worse. Sequels tend to be more front-loaded than original films and the reviews will scare away moviegoers for the rest of the weekend. Worst case scenario has the film earning less than $10 million this weekend and even the best case scenario is just $12 million. The lower end seems more likely, so look for between $10 million and $11 million over the full weekend. This is more than it cost to make, on the other hand, so the studio might still recoup its total budget sometime on the home market. More...

Limited and VOD Releases: Autumn Years and Oscar Glory

August 21, 2015

Grandma

It might not be a good week for limited releases overall, but we do have a potential Oscar nominee opening this week. Grandma is not only earning the best reviews of the week, but Lily Tomlin is earning some early Awards Season buzz. More...

Contest: Check Up

August 21, 2015

Next weekend is the last weekend in August and it isn't hard to tell looking at the releases. There are three wide releases, sort of. War Room is only opening in just over 1,000 theaters, so it likely won't make an impact at the box office. No Escape is opening in just over 3,000 theaters, but it is opening on Wednesday. That leaves We Are Your Friends as the only real choice for the target film for this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for We Are Your Friends.

Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize, comprised of Bottoms Up on DVD and one previously reviewed DVD / Blu-ray. Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a second Frankenprize, comprised of Knifed Up on DVD and one previously reviewed DVD / Blu-ray. Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a third Frankenprize, comprised of Father Forgive HIm on DVD and one previously reviewed DVD / Blu-ray. Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay! More...

Weekend Predictions: Summer's Over. Oh boy, is Summer Over!

August 21, 2015

Sinister 2

After last week's reprieve, summer truly ends this week. There are three wide releases coming out, none of which are expected to become even midlevel hits. Also, none of them are earning overall positive reviews. The biggest movie is Sinister 2, which is expected to do well enough to earn a profit, mostly thanks to its very low production budget. American Ultra is the best in terms of Tomatometer Score—by a huge margin. However, it is still earning less than 50% positive reviews by a large margin. The biggest movie in terms of production budget is Hitman: Agent 47, which is bad news for the studio, because it is not expected to do well. In fact, there's almost no chance any of the three new releases will top Straight Outta Compton this weekend. There's a small chance that their combined openings won't top Straight Outta Compton. There is some good news. This weekend last year, there were no movies that earned more than $20 million, which is the absolute low end of Straight Outta Compton's range. On the other hand, If I Stay was the best new release with $15.68 million. That's more than any of the wide releases this year will earn and it only managed third place last year. I think 2015 will win with ease at the top of the chart, but 2014 might have better depth, keeping it ahead in the year-over-year comparison. More...

International Box Office: Mission Completes Hattrick, but International Fair Thrives

August 20, 2015

Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation

Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation remained in first place for the third weekend in a row with $46.1 million in 63 markets over the weekend for totals of $235.3 million internationally and $373.6 million worldwide. The film's biggest opening was in France where it easily earned first place with $7.96 million on 719 screens. It also earned first place with $2.99 million on 947 screens in Brazil. The film isn't quite done its international run. It opens in Italy this weekend and China next month. It should have no trouble getting to $300 million internationally and could get all the way to $500 million worldwide. China could be a huge market for the movie. More...

Contest: Once Bitten: Winning Announcement

August 20, 2015

The winners of our Once Bitten contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Straight Outta Compton opening weekend were... More...

Per Theater Chart: Mistress's Opening is American Dream Come True

August 19, 2015

Mistress America

We are inching towards Awards Season and the number one film on this week's per theater chart is a potential Awards Season player. That film, Mistress America, earned an average of $23,302 in four theaters. That's more than enough to suggest it will expand, but not enough to suggest it will expand truly wide, or even semi-wide. Second place went to the overall number one film, Straight Outta Compton, with an average of $21,835. Meru was well back with an average of $13,040 in seven theaters. Assassination saw its average rise to $10,111 in 29 theaters. It is very rare for films to have their averages rise week-to-week. More...

Home Market Releases for August 18th, 2015

August 18, 2015

Walt Disney Animation Studios Short Films Collection

The TV on DVD season is kicking into high gear, but it is still too soon for the summer blockbusters to arrive on the home market. This has led to a number of good releases, but not a lot of great ones. It was a pretty easy race for Pick of the Week with Walt Disney Animation Studios Short Films Collection on Blu-ray Combo Pack well ahead of the rest. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Compton Makes the Competition Cry U.N.C.L.E.

August 18, 2015

The Man From U.N.C.L.E.

Straight Outta Compton destroyed expectations earning even more than the outlier prediction I saw. Sadly, our predictions for The Man From U.N.C.L.E. turned out to be too optimistic, but overall the box office was still very strong. In fact, it grew 12% from last week to $148 million. Growth like that almost never happens at this time of year. Compared to last year, the box office was also strong, albeit by a smaller 3.7% margin. That said, a win is a win and worth celebrating, especially after a couple of strong declines. Year-to-date, 2015 maintains a strong lead over 2014 at $7.09 billion to $6.73 billion. A 5.4% lead year-over-year is a great margin for this time of year and it would take a really serious collapse to put that lead at risk. I don't think that's going to happen. In fact, there are three potential $1 billion hits yet to open in theaters, which is actually better than it was last year. Add in the number of potential $100 million hits and the lead could grow through till the end of the year. More...

Featured DVD Review: Descendants

August 17, 2015

Descendants

Descendants is the latest Disney Channel Original Movie and the channel is on a roll with their previous such release, Teen Beach 2, doing well with critics and with viewers. We already know Descendants was a hit in the ratings (there's even a TV spin-off in the works). However, did it earn this success? Or is it a case of hype more than quality. More...

Weekend Estimates: Straight Into the Record Books

August 16, 2015

Straight Outta Compton

Straight Outta Compton is smashing all sorts of records this weekend, as Universal’s miracle year continues. The studio is already enjoying its best year ever, and will pass $2 billion at the domestic box office this weekend, becoming the second studio to ever hit the mark, after Warner Bros.’ $2.1 billion year in 2009. Universal’s achievement is even more remarkable given they’ve only had 14 movies playing this year, compared to Warner’s 36 in 2009. More...

Friday Estimates: Outta Compton, Into the Record Book

August 15, 2015

Straight Outta Compton

Friday’s estimates are in and, not to put too fine a point on it, Straight Outta Compton destroyed predictions. In my defense, with Fantastic Four bombing, it looked like summer was over. It is very rare for the box office to rebound this time of year, but that’s exactly what happened. Straight Outta Compton earned $24.2 million on Friday night. Not only is this the biggest opening day for a musical biopic, it tops the previous record-holder’s opening weekend. (Walk the Line earned $22.35 million during its opening weekend back in 2005.) Since the film has broken records, it is a little hard to predict where it will be by the end of the weekend. The big opening day could mean a huge opening weekend. Or it could be the result of an extreme Fanboy Effect. Worst case scenario has the film making less over the rest of the weekend than it did during its opening day. This isn’t common, but it has happened before. That would still result in a $48 million opening weekend. On the higher end, its reviews could translate into long legs and an opening weekend of more than $65 million. If the weekend is below $55 million, then the Fanboy effect was bigger than its reviews. Anything above $60 million and the reverse is true. I'm going to go with $53 million, but as I said, this is a record-breaking opening day, so we are in untested territory. More...

Limited and VOD Releases: Final Releases

August 14, 2015

Final Girl

It is both a very busy week with nearly a dozen releases on this week's list and a disappointing one. The slate of new releases is really weak, with only Mistress America having a decent shot at box office success. There are a couple of other releases that have the reviews to do well, but are playing on VOD. Of these, People Places Things is my choice for Video on Demand Pick of the Week, although I'm hoping Final Girl is better than its early reviews would indicate. More...

Contest: Sinister Six

August 14, 2015

Summer is rapidly winding down. There are three wide releases coming out next week, none of them are expected to be midlevel hits. The only one that even has a shot at $50 million is Sinister 2. Horror films tend to do well in late summer, or at least they tend to perform better than most other genre. Because of this, Sinister 2 is the only real choice for the target film for this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Sinister 2.

Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize, comprised of Little Loopers on DVD and one previously reviewed DVD / Blu-ray. Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a second Frankenprize, comprised of The Last Days of the Nazis on DVD and one previously reviewed DVD / Blu-ray. Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a third Frankenprize, comprised of It Happened Here on DVD and one previously reviewed DVD / Blu-ray. Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay! More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Compton Go Straight to the Top?

August 14, 2015

Straight Outta Compton

It appears summer is over, but a strong showing from Straight Outta Compton and The Man From U.N.C.L.E. could mitigate that decline. Both are earning good reviews, which is unusual for this time of year. On the other hand, it is late in August, so neither are expected to be monster hits. Straight Outta Compton has a chance to turn its amazing reviews into long legs, so it could be a surprise $100 million hit. Even so, it won't open explosively. This weekend last year, the best new release was Let's Be Cops, which only managed $17.81 million. I think both new releases will top that by a serious margin. However, the best results from this weekend last year were Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles and Guardians of the Galaxy. I think 2014 has an advantage over 2015 in the year-over-year comparison, but I think things will be closer than they were the past two weeks. More...

International Box Office: Rogue Remains Massive, While Fantastic Fairs Better

August 13, 2015

Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation

Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation expanded over the weekend and saw its weekend haul grow, but by a tiny amount. It pulled in $65.5 million in 59 markets over the weekend for totals of $156.7 million internationally and $264.5 million worldwide. The film earned first place in a trio of major markets, led by Russia where it made $4.07 million on 1,125 screens. It also debuted in Germany ($2.84 million on 612) and Spain ($1.73 million on 603). On the other hand, it had to settle for second place in Japan with $4.60 million on 600 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $6.07 million. Jurassic World earned first place in Japan, so that's hardly a poor opening. Its biggest market overall was South Korea, where it made $6.57 million on 818 screens over the weekend for a two-week total of $31.99 million. The film is below average for the franchise so far, but that's still enough to break even and justify yet another installment. More...

Per Theater Chart: Profitable Start for Prophet

August 12, 2015

Kahlil Gibran's the Prophet

There were only two films in the $10,000 club on the per theater chart, but while it wasn't a crowded field this week, the two films had nearly identical averages. Kahlil Gibran's the Prophet led the way with an average of $13,718 in two theaters. Meanwhile, The Diary of a Teenage Girl was right behind with an average of $13,084 in four. More...

Contest: KISS of an Angel: Winning Announcement

August 12, 2015

The winners of our KISS of an Angel contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Fantastic Four opening weekend were... More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Mission Still Fantastic, Four Flops

August 11, 2015

Fantastic Four

Despite what conventional wisdom was predicting, Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation remained in first place, as Fantastic Four missed even our low expectations. The Gift also did well, but the other two wide releases opened on the low end of expectations. Overall, the box office fell 8.3% from last weekend down to $132 million, so according to that number, it is safe to say summer is fading fast. Worse still, compared to last year, the box office was 29% lower, which is terrible and a clear sign that summer is already over. Granted, 2015 still has a solid lead over 2014, at $6.88 billion to $6.51 billion. A lead of 5.7% at this time of year is great and it would take an epic collapse for that to disappear anytime soon. I don't think 2015 will bounce back and start padding its lead any time soon, but I also don't think it will have 29% deficits week after week either. More...

Home Market Releases for August 11th, 2015

August 11, 2015

Felicia Day

Fortunately, summer is coming to an end, so the quality of the home market releases will start to climb very soon. Unfortunately, this week the biggest first-run release is Unfriended. It is worth picking up, if you are a fan of the genre, but it is not exactly a blockbuster title. As for the best releases of the week, I Am Big Bird: The Caroll Spinney Story is close to the top of the list. However, in the end I went with Felicia Day: You're Never Weird on the Internet (Almost), which is a bit of an unorthodox choice, as it is not a DVD or Blu-ray. However, it is the best new release of the week. More...

Featured TV on DVD Review: Mythbusters: Collection 13

August 10, 2015

Mythbusters

Mythbusters has been on the air for roughly thirteen seasons. (It depends on whether you consider the three first specials as a separate season or not.) It has been a while since I watched the show consistently, but when I do catch the occasional episode, I'm usually entertained. Collection 13 has eight episodes on two discs. What episodes are they? And where do they rank on the show's average? More...

Featured Blu-ray / DVD Review: Home

August 9, 2015

Home

Home is a 3D digitally animated family film that opened in March. Nearly every year there is at least one such film that cracks $100 million and this year it was Home, which not only earned more than $100 million, it came relatively close to $200 million. Is it as good as its box office numbers? Is it at least good for a kids movie? More...

Weekend Estimates: Fantastic Four Falls Flat

August 9, 2015

Fantastic Four

The Summer Season has come to an abrupt end this weekend, with Fantastic Four busting out with only $26.2 million, according to Fox’s Sunday morning estimate. That’s about half of what one would expect for a superhero movie in this budget range, even taking into account the fact that it’s the first in a potential franchise (see here for some comparisons), and a final box office total of less than $80 million seems in prospect, which is nothing short of a disaster: the film is likely not to even cover its marketing budget. More...

Friday Estimates: Far From Fantastic

August 8, 2015

Fantastic Four

I was significantly less optimistic than most box office analysts were when it came to the weekend predictions. While most predicted Fantastic Four would earn just over $40 million over the weekend, I assumed the film will struggle so much that it was just a matter of time before it was given back to Marvel Studios. Despite my pessimism, I appear to have been too optimistic. More...

Limited and VOD Releases: Resurrecting Limited Releases

August 7, 2015

Cop Car

It could be a really good week in limited release, as there are several films earning great reviews and loud buzz. Leading the way in raw size is Dragon Ball Z: Resurrection "F", which could become one of the biggest Anime hits of all time, at least Stateside. Other films with a shot at thriving in limited release include Cop Car and The Diary of a Teenage Girl, but they are not the only films worth checking out. More...

Contest: Once Bitten

August 7, 2015

There are three wide releases next week, well, two and a half, as Underdogs might not open truly wide. As for the other two, Straight Outta Compton is the heavy favorite over The Man from U.N.C.L.E. Because of this, Straight Outta Compton is the only real choice for the target film for this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Straight Outta Compton.

Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Shark Week: Dominating the Deep on DVD. Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a copy of Fast N' Loud: Speed Demons on DVD. Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a copy of Very Fairy Princess…and more imaginative tales on DVD. (I couldn't find it on Amazon.com.) Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay! More...

Weekend Predictions: How Long till Marvel Gets the Fantastic Four Back?

August 7, 2015

Fantastic Four

There could be a close race on top of the box office chart with Fantastic Four trying to unseat Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation as box office champion. This should be the number one story of the weekend; however, if I'm right and Fantastic Four does as poorly as I think it will, then the franchise will be in the hands of Marvel Studios by the end of the weekend. None of the other three wide releases are guaranteed to top $10 million over the weekend. In fact, it is very likely that one of them, Shaun of the Sheep, will miss the top five. This weekend last year was led by Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles with $65.58 million. Guardians of the Galaxy was second with $42.12 million. I don't think any film opening this weekend will match Guardians of the Galaxy, while there's a chance all four combined won't match TMNT. 2015 is going to take a beating on the year-over-year comparison. More...

International Box Office: Rogue Nation Goes International

August 6, 2015

Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation

Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation opened in first place on the international chart with $64.5 million in 41 markets. Its biggest opening by far came in South Korea, where it made $13.80 million on 1,202 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $16.90 million. That total opening was more than twice the film's second biggest opening, $8.31 million in 572 theaters in the U.K. The film also had major market openings in Mexico ($4.17 million) and in Australia ($3.68 million). The film has yet to open in most major markets, including Germany, Russia, Spain, and Japan. The film opens in all four this weekend, so it should strong on the international chart. More...

Contest: Mission: Possible: Winning Announcement

August 6, 2015

The winners of our Mission: Possible contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation opening weekend were... More...

Per Theater Chart: Strong Beginning for The End

August 4, 2015

The End of the Tour

The End of the Tour is the latest success for A24, as it topped the per theater chart with an average of $30,810 in four theaters. Up next were a pair of documentaries, Best of Enemies and Listen to Me Marlon, with averages of $16,913 and $15,034 respectively. The overall number one film was next, as Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation earned an average of $14,034. The final film in the $10,000 club was Phoenix. Its theater count doubled, but its per theater average dropped just 20% to $12,004. That's amazing and it could be an omen that it will expand wide enough to earn some measure of mainstream success. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Impossible Mission has Plausible Opening

August 4, 2015

Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation

Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation matched expectations close enough to call it a victory. Meanwhile, Vacation came within 10% of Friday's predictions, but unfortunately, we weren't predicting box office success, so that's not a good thing. With the holdovers slumping as summer ends, the overall box office dipped 3.2% from last weekend. That's not the problem. The problem is the 21% drop-off from the same weekend last year. Granted, Guardians of the Galaxy broke records when it opened this weekend last year, but a 21% drop-off is still troublesome. 2015 still leads 2014 by a substantial margin at $6.67 billion to $6.25 billion, so unless 2015 really crashes, it will still have a lead going into the winter holidays. More...

Home Market Releases for August 4th, 2015

August 4, 2015

Orphan Black

For a summer week, there's a surprising strength on top of the home market releases. Insurgent will very likely be the top selling DVD or Blu-ray on this week's list, but it isn't even close to the best. There were five contenders for Pick of the Week, three of which were in the TV on DVD category. This includes the eventual winner, Orphan Black: Season Three. More...

Home Market Numbers: Longest Ride Rides Tall

August 3, 2015

The Longest Ride

The new releases for July 14th dominated the combined DVD and Blu-ray chart for July 19. In fact, they took every single spot in the top five. The Longest Ride led the way with 514,000 units / $9.03 million Its opening week Blu-ray share was 24%, which is better than the Blu-ray share of a lot of female-centric dramas. More...

Featured Blu-ray / DVD Review: Barely Lethal

August 3, 2015

Barely-Lethal

A24 has only been around for little more than two years, but in that time, I've reviewed more than a dozen of their releases. I haven't enjoyed all of them, but their hit to miss ratio has been better than most. Likewise, their hit to miss ratio at the box office has been better than most. If this keeps up, they might start releasing wide releases in a few years. However, while their track record is amazing compared to most limited releases, Barely Lethal is not a success story. It earned terrible reviews and missed the Mendoza Line during its opening weekend, earning less than $2,000 per theater. Granted it was also a VOD premiere, so that's a mitigating circumstance, it was one of the weakest box office performers for A24. Was this result fair? Or did it deserve better? More...

Weekend Estimates: Rogue Nation Takes Off with $56 Million

August 2, 2015

Mission: Impossible—Rogue Nation

Mission: Impossible—Rogue Nation will comfortably win the weekend at the box office, with Paramount projecting a total of $56 million on Sunday morning. That’s a very respectable performance by any measure, although it falls short of the franchise record, which was set by Mission: Impossible 2 15 years ago. It’s early days yet, but the prospects of another franchise chapter making around $200 million seem good, based on the excellent reviews this outing has been receiving. Overseas business is reportedly very good so far, although we don’t yet have any official figures. More...

Featured TV on DVD Review: I Love Lucy: Season Two

August 2, 2015

I Love Lucy

It is not overstating things to say I Love Lucy is a classic TV show. It is one of the most influential sitcoms of all time and to this day it remains one of the ten best sitcoms of all time. The show has already been released on DVD, but the second season is coming out on Blu-ray this week. Is the show worth owning? Of course. But is the Blu-ray worth the upgrade? That's a more interesting question. More...

Friday Estimates: Rogue Nation Off to Solid Start

August 1, 2015

Mission: Impossible—Rogue Nation

Mission: Impossible—Rogue Nation earned about $20.3 million at the box office on Friday, including $4 million on Thursday evening, according to Paramount’s Saturday morning estimate. That puts it on track for a $50 million opening weekend, which is decent money by any measure, but isn’t enough to put it in the top ten weekends of 2015, and might not even top The SpongeBob Movie to become the studio’s best opener of the year. Does that count as a disappointing start? Maybe… More...

2015 Preview: August

August 1, 2015

Fantastic Four

It is still a little too soon to tell how July will finish, as we don't have any numbers for the final weekend at the time of writing. We know Minions was a monster hit and that Ant-man will be a financial success. However, until we see how Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation does, it will be impossible to call the month a true success. If Rogue Nation bombed this weekend, then the month is only a partial success. It would also mean the summer of 2015 could be coming to an abrupt end. As for August, only Fantastic Four has a better than 50/50 chance of reaching $100 million; although some people think Straight Outta Compton also has a shot at that milestone. Besides those two, only a couple of other films even have a realistic shot at becoming midlevel hits. Worse still, last August was amazing with Guardians of the Galaxy breaking records. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles also did better than expected with a domestic haul of nearly $200 million. No release this August is going to match that figure. There's a good chance the top two releases combined won't do so. Fortunately, 2015 has a sizable lead over 2014, so even a soft month will keep 2015 ahead in the year-over-year comparison. More...