The Numbers News - September 2015
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Contest: Family Fun: Winning Announcement
September 29, 2015
The winners of our Family Fun contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Hotel Transylvania 2 opening weekend were...
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Per Theater Chart: Sicario Continues to Chase Down the Competition
September 29, 2015
It is very rare for a limited release to repeat on top of the per theater chart, because if a film does well enough to lead the per theater chart, they tend to expand so much that repeating on top becomes nearly impossible. Sicario expanded from 6 to 59 theaters, but still managed first place with an average of $29,107. At this pace, it will expand semi-wide, at the very least. Lost in Hong Kong was next with an average of $19,916 in 27 theaters. It is already more than halfway to its first major milestone after just one weekend of release. I think more and more Chinese films will get limited releases here. 99 Homes was next with an average of $16,127 in two theaters. This is enough to suggest some potential to expand, especially if it can turn its reviews into Award Season Buzz. The overall box office champ, Hotel Transylvania 2, was next with an average of $12,910. The final film in the $10,000 club was Mississippi Grind with $12,434 in its lone theater. It looks like it will be another success for A24.
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Home Market Releases for September 29th, 2015
September 29, 2015
It is another week loaded with TV on DVD releases, including iZombie: Season One, which is one of the best new TV shows from last season. However, while that release is a Pick of the Week contender, the actual honor goes to Spy (DVD or Blu-ray Combo Pack).
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Weekend Wrap-Up: Hotel Transylvania Climbs into the Record Book
September 28, 2015
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Hotel Transylvania 2 was surprisingly strong this past weekend, topping expectations and entering the record book. It wasn't the only new release of the week. The Intern matched expectations nearly perfectly. On the other hand, Everest struggled and The Green Inferno barely made a peep. The overall box office pulled in $138 million, which is 22% higher than last weekend and 29% higher than the same weekend last year. 2015's lead over 2014 has grown to $470 million or 6.3%. This year we have a running tally of $7.96 billion compared to $7.49 billion from last year. There's just three months left in the year, so 2015's lead looks safer and safer every passing weekend.
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Home Market Numbers: Mad Max Chases Away the Competition
September 28, 2015
There were eight releases from the week of September 1st to reach the top 30 on the combined DVD and Blu-ray chart for September 6th. This includes Mad Max: Fury Road, which sold 1.04 million units and generated $23.75 million in sales. There are three important notes. Firstly, the film's opening week Blu-ray share was 56%, which is excellent. Secondly, this was the first release to have opening week sales above 1 million units since Home debuted five weeks ago. Finally, these numbers don't include the Franchise Box Set, which opened in 16th place with 27,000 units / $1.51 million.
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Featured TV on DVD Review: Modern Family: Season Six
September 28, 2015
Modern Family has been one of the best and most popular sitcoms on TV for each of its five previous seasons. In fact, it has won five Outstanding Comedy Series Emmys in a row, tying the record. Is it still the best sitcom on TV? And how are the extras on the DVD?
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Weekend Estimates: Hotel Transylvania 2 Breaks September Record
September 27, 2015
Hotel Transylvania 2 is off to an impressive start this weekend with a new record weekend for September, according to Sony’s estimate released on Sunday. The animated comedy is expected to earn $47.5 million, beating the record held by the first film in the franchise, which debuted with $42.5 million this time in 2012. It’s also on the high end of expectations, which had it coming in the high 30s or low 40s. It’s a welcome turnaround for Adam Sandler, after a string of flops, but even more so for Sony Pictures, which has had a dismal year so far, with no film earning more than Pixels $76.7 million before now.
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Friday Estimates: Hotel Fully Booked
September 26, 2015
As expected, Hotel Transylvania 2 earned first place on Friday, but it did so with an unexpectedly strong result. The film pulled in $13.25 million for the day; by comparison, this is 21% higher than the first film’s debut. Sequels do tend to be a little more front loaded than the original film, but this is still a fantastic start. For instance, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs had a 3.72 internal multiplier of (weekend box office divided by Friday box office) while its sequel had an internal multiplier of 3.68. Granted, that's a tiny drop, but the reviews of these two films dropped dramatically, which likely had some effect. On the other hand, the two Hotel Transylvania films have earned nearly identical reviews. Hotel Transylvania earned an internal multiplier of 3.88, so if that drops to about 3.7, then Hotel Transylvania 2 would pull in about $49 million over the weekend. That's seems excessive. On the other hand, even earning just over $42.5 million and breaking the September record would be disappointing after an opening day like this.
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Limited and VOD Releases: Taking a Gamble on Limited Releases
September 25, 2015
While it isn't a quiet week for limited releases, nearly all of the buzz is directed towards two films, 99 Homes and Mississippi Grind. The former will likely be the biggest box office hit, but the later is a gambling movie, so it is the one I most want to see.
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Contest: Rescue Mission
September 25, 2015
The first weekend of October has only one wide release, The Martian. It should easily dominate the box office and could be one of the best wide releases for the rest of the year. As such, it is the only real choice for the target film for this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The Martian.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize consisting of two previously reviewed DVDs or Blu-rays.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a Frankenprize consisting of two previously reviewed DVDs or Blu-rays.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a Frankenprize consisting of two previously reviewed DVDs or Blu-rays.
There is a difference this time. Two people will earn Frankenprizes consisting of two horror movies. The other winner will earn a Frankprize consisting of two "horror" movies, that is to say movies so bad that it will fill you with horror.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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Weekend Predictions: Busy September Weekend is Quantity Over Quality
September 25, 2015
There are two wide releases this week, a wide expansion, and a semi-wide release. That's a lot of films to talk about. Of the three new films, none of them are earning more than 50% positive reviews. This is sadly typical of this time of year. Hotel Transylvania 2 is easily the biggest new release of the week and the only film with a shot at $40 million. The second wide release, The Intern, and the wide expansion, Everest, should be in a tight race for second place with $20 million each. On the other hand, The Green Inferno, the semi-wide release, is staring down the barrel of the Mendoza Line. If you look at the top three films from last year and compare them to the top three films from this year, they look about the same. The Equalizer's opening is on low the end of Hotel Transylvania 2's range of expectations. Additionally, the depth this year looks better than last year. 2015 should end the month on a high note in the year-over-year comparison.
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Home Market Numbers: Walking Dead Can't Revive the Home Market
September 24, 2015
While there were a huge number of new releases from August 25th to reach the top 30 on the combined DVD and Blu-ray chart for August 30th, none were big hits. The Walking Dead: Season Six led the way with 295,000 units / $7.69 million. Its opening week Blu-ray share was 34%, which is average for the format as a whole, but excellent for a TV on DVD release.
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International Box Office: Runner Breaks Out to an Early Lead
September 23, 2015
The Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials rose to first place with $43.3 million in 67 markets over the weekend for a total of $78.0 million internationally and $108.3 million worldwide. The film's biggest opening came from South Korea, but it only managed second place there with $5.66 million on 804 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $7.20 million. On the other hand, the film dominated the Russian box office with $4.19 million on 2,328 screens. The original movie opened stronger in Russia, but The Scorch Trials performed better in its opening in South Korea. Given these results, it is still too soon to tell how well this film will do compared to its predecessor. That said, it already has more worldwide than it cost to make. In fact, it almost has enough worldwide to pay for its entire production budget. Its advertising budget would have to be much larger than expected for it to not break even sooner rather than later.
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Contest: Lovely Prizes: Winning Announcement
September 22, 2015
The winners of our Lovely Prizes contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for The Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials opening weekend were...
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Per Theater Chart: Sicario is the Most Wanted Limited Release
September 22, 2015
Sicario not only led the weekend on the Per Theater Chart with an average of $66,881 in six theaters. It also had the best per theater average for any film released in 2015, beating out the previous record-holder, Ex Machina, by about $7,500. On a related note, there's already reports of a sequel in the works. Jeremy Scott: The People's Designer was up next with an average of $18,750 in twelve theaters. Finally, there's Everest. This film not only earned a spot in the top five overall, but pulled in an average of $13,251 in over 500 theaters.
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Weekend Wrap-Up: New Releases Fail to Reach High Heights
September 22, 2015
While the two new releases landed in first and second as expected, their box office numbers were not as strong. The Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials failed to match The Maze Runner, which is not a good sign for the franchise going forward. Black Mass did well, for a September release. Meanwhile, Everest might be considered the best new release of in the top ten, which is not surprising as it is being released by Universal. Finally there's Captive, the latest victim of the Mendoza Line. Overall, the box office was still strong and rose 10.0% from last week to $112 million. It was also 9.6% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2015 saw its lead expand to 5.8% over 2014 at $7.78 billion to $7.36 billion.
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Home Market Releases for September 22nd, 2015
September 21, 2015
This week's list is led by Pitch Perfect 2, which was a surprisingly strong performer at the box office. However, its reviews are not up to Pick of the Week levels. The best of the best are dominated by TV on DVD releases, including Modern Family: Season 6, which is the last sitcom I watch every single week. However, it is a double-dip that wins the Pick of the Week honors, Moonrise Kingdom:Criterion Collection. The original Blu-ray didn't have nearly enough extras, but this one corrects that problem.
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Weekend Estimates: Maze, Mass and Everest Make Solid Debuts
September 20, 2015
Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials will win the weekend at the box office, according to studio estimates released on Sunday, with a very solid $30.3 million. That’s down a bit from The Maze Runner’s $32.5 million this weekend last year, but the difference is small enough that a good performance on Sunday and slight increases in the actuals for Friday and Saturday could actually push the sequel slightly ahead. Either way, the franchise seems on fairly solid ground, although the increase in budget for the second film to $61 million from $34 million the first time around suggests it won’t be as profitable. As always, international box office will be key, and early signs there are good, with $78 million already in the bank.
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Featured Blu-ray / DVD Review: Walt Disney Animation Studios Short Films Collection
September 20, 2015
The screener for Walt Disney Animation Studios Short Films Collection finally arrived, so the review is a little late. Was it worth the wait? Are the shorts worth owning? Are there a lot of double-dips?
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Friday Estimates: Maze Runner and Black Mass Make Strong Starts
September 19, 2015
The Fall Season starts in earnest this weekend with the release of a Young Adult, dystopian-future action movie and an Older Adult dramatic thriller (not to mention a couple of pieces of counter-programming) vying for box office dollars, and, in one case, Oscar attention. Both films are getting off to good starts, based on Friday’s estimates. Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials is off to the best start with $11 million for the day and a projected weekend around $30 million. Black Mass will have to settle for second place with $8.8 million on Friday and around $25 million for the weekend.
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Limited and VOD Releases: These Releases are Contagious
September 18, 2015
We are getting close to Halloween, which explains the three horror / horror related movies coming out this week. However, while Cooties and the other two films likely won't find an audience, that doesn't mean there are no potential box office hits on this week's list. Both Sicario (Reviews) and Pawn Sacrifice (Reviews) could do well in theaters.
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Contest: Family Fun
September 18, 2015
There are two wide releases and a semi-wide release coming out next week, but Hotel Transylvania 2 is the only one with a real shot at first place. As such, it is the only real choice for the target film for this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Hotel Transylvania 2.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Modern Family: Season Six on DVD.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a Frankenprize consisting of a previously reviewed TV on DVD release.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a Frankenprize consisting of a previously reviewed TV on DVD release.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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Weekend Predictions: Which New Release will Climb to the Top?
September 18, 2015
It's a sort of busy week this week, with two wide releases, The Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials and Black Mass, as well as two limited releases with a shot at reaching the top ten, Captive and Everest. The Scorch Trials is the latest Young Adult Adaptation franchise. The first film crossed $100 million domestically, so this one hopes to grow at the box office. Black Mass is early Oscar-bait, but the reviews suggest it won't quite get there. Captive is the latest faith-based film and it likely won't go anywhere. Everest gets an early IMAX opening before its wide release next week. This weekend last year was the weekend The Maze Runner opened. Since sequels tend to open faster than their predecessors, 2015 should come out on top in the year-over-year comparison.
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International Box Office: Mission: Accomplished
September 17, 2015
Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation rocketed up the chart into first place with $91.3 million in 63 markets over the weekend... sort of. This includes $86.42 million during the film's six-day opening in China. Its three-day weekend number is a lot smaller than that, but still enough for first place. Overall, the film now has $424.8 million internationally and $612.9 million worldwide. It became only the second film in the franchise to reach the $600 million mark worldwide. This is more than enough to break even, so it should come as no surprise that there's another installment in the works.
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Contest: The Perfect Prize: Winning Announcement
September 17, 2015
The winners of our The Perfect Prize contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for The Perfect Guy opening weekend were...
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Per Theater Chart: Sleeping's Shocking Start
September 16, 2015
Sleeping with Other People wasn't expected to do well in theaters, because it only earned mixed reviews, while it was also playing on VOD. Despite this, it led the way on the per theater chart with an average of $17,820 in five theaters. Goodbye Mommy was in second place with an average of $15,063. It could do well in the art house circuit, but expanding wide will be nearly impossible for this German film. Meet the Patels was right behind with an average of $14,436. It too could do well in the art house circuit, but it is a documentary, so expanding wide is likely out of the question. The Black Panthers: Vanguard of the Revolution was the only holdover in the $10,000 club with an average of $13,288 in three theaters. The overall number one film, The Perfect Guy, was next with an average of $11,656. The final film in the $10,000 club was A Brilliant Mind with an average of $10,469 in three theaters.
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Home Market Releases for September 15th, 2015
September 16, 2015
This week's home market releases are insane, so I'm going to have to be a lot more judicious in pruning the list. If I were to include all releases that are big enough to include, if they were released during a slow week, there would be more than 100 releases on this week's list (including secondary Blu-rays, but not VOD releases). I have to pare that back to a more reasonable number. Why are there so many releases? Firstly, it is the beginning of the Christmas Shopping season and we have two monster hits on this week's list. Secondly, it is the last week before the fall season begins in earnest, so it is the last week for a lot of shows to come out on DVD before they are running into competition from the new season. It should come as no surprise that the best releases on this week's list are in the TV on DVD categories, including Marvel's Agent Carter: Season 1 and Marvel's Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.: Season 2. Both of which are co-winners of the Pick of the Week.
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Weekend Wrap-Up: Perfect Opening for Visit and Guy
September 15, 2015
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Both of the two true wide releases had amazing openings this past week. Or to be more specific, amazing openings for a September release. The Perfect Guy did earn first place, but by less than half a million dollars over The Visit. Both films opened substantially above expectations. Thanks to this, the overall box office rose significantly, both compared to last week and compared to last year. The total box office was $102 million, which is 13% higher than last week. It is also 13% higher than the same weekend last year. September is already looking really good. Year-to-date, 2015 has pulled in $7.65 million putting it 5.3% ahead of last year's pace of $7.26 million. 2015 is nearly $400 million head of 2014's pace and there's not a lot of time for 2015 to blow that lead. It wouldn't be impossible, but it is getting more and more unlikely.
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Featured Blu-ray / DVD Review: Cinderella
September 15, 2015
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Cinderella is the latest in a long line of Disney animated movies to be turned into a live-action film. I've previously reviewed a few of these movies, including Maleficent. I enjoyed that movie a lot more than most critics did. I loved the fact that the movie took the original characters, but told a different story than the original did. Does this film also do something new with the old story? If not, is it at least a good re-telling of the old story?
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Featured Blu-ray / DVD Review: Love and Mercy
September 14, 2015
Love and Mercy is a movie about a real life person dealing with adversity. It's a movie about a real life famous person dealing with adversity. This movie practically screams Oscar bait. However, while it won over a lot of critics, Oscar bait movies can't always translate critical acclaim into mainstream appeal. Is that the case here? Is it worth checking out for fans of the The Beach Boys? Will those with limited knowledge of their music enjoy the film?
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Home Market Numbers: Walt Disney Shorts Come Up a Little Short
September 13, 2015
A huge number of new releases from August 18th reached the top 30 on the combined DVD and Blu-ray chart for August 23rd. However, none of them could overtake Home, which rose to first place with 216,000 units / $3.89 million for the week, giving it four-week totals of 2.09 million / $38.58 million. It became just the sixth film to sell more than 2 million units during 2015.
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Weekend Estimates: Perfect Guy and The Visit Give Fall Season a Good Start
September 13, 2015
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The movie business will make its best ever start to the Fall Season in dollar terms this weekend, thanks to a couple of openers that are handily out-performing expectations. The second weekend in September is traditionally the weakest of the year for the industry, with the combined box office for all movies in release only reaching $100 million on two previous occasions (2008 and 2013). This year will be the third time it’s happened, and final numbers will take 2015 comfortably past 2013’s record of $103.2 million (see complete rankings here). In terms of ticket sales, we’ll still fall short of 1999’s high mark of 15.1 million, but we should see a weekend in the top 5 by that measure too.
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Featured Blu-ray / DVD Review: Furious 7
September 13, 2015
Furious 7 is the latest in the Fast and the Furious franchise. The films started out okay, but critical reception fell quickly. It wasn't until Fast Five when the filmmakers realized they were making, in essence, live-action cartoons that they truly found their voices. This focus helped the box office, so much so that Furious 7 became just the third film to earn more than $1 billion internationally and just the fourth film to earn $1.5 billion worldwide. Is the quality up to the same level as its box office? The odds of that are nearly zero. However, is it at least as entertaining as its box office numbers would indicate?
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Friday Estimates: Perfect Guy and Visit Headed for Strong Debuts
September 12, 2015
What is traditionally the weakest weekend of the year isn’t looking too bad this morning, with The Perfect Guy and The Visit both posting solid opening day numbers on Friday. The Perfect Guy came out marginally ahead on the day, picking up an estimated $9.95 million compared to $9.22 million or so for The Visit. Both films will land over $20 million for the weekend, which is a victory at this time of year, but The Perfect Guy is expected to stretch its lead over the next couple of days.
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Limited and VOD Releases: Feeling Brilliant
September 11, 2015
It's actually a really good week for limited releases, with nearly half a dozen films on this week's list earning overwhelmingly positive reviews. This includes A Brilliant Young Mind (Reviews), which has a good shot at earning at least some measure of mainstream success. There are others, like Coming Home, that have a good shot at limited success, but their chances of expanding significantly are much more limited.
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Contest: Lovely Prizes
September 11, 2015
There are three wide releases coming out next week, but everyone expects The Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials to dominate the box office. As such, it is the only real choice for the target film for this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Love and Mercy on DVD.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a second copy of Love and Mercy on DVD.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will win the final copy of Love and Mercy on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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Weekend Predictions: Will the New Releases have Perfect Openings?
September 10, 2015
There are two and a half wide releases coming out this week, led by The Perfect Guy. I think it will earn first place at the box office, but it isn't a sure thing. Up next is The Visit, which is the latest from M. Night Shyamalan. It has been a while since he had real drawing power at the box office. Finally there's 90 Minutes in Heaven, which is not expected to open truly wide, but wide enough to get into the top ten. This weekend last year was led by No Good Deed, which opened with $24.25 million. I don't think any new release will match that this year. There's a chance none of them will match Dolphin Tale 2. I'm cautiously optimistic that 2015 won't lose by a substantial amount, but if either of the two truly wide releases bomb, then the box office will be in real trouble.
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Home Market Numbers: Hot Pursuit Can't Catch Holdovers
September 10, 2015
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There were more new releases to chart this week than there were last week. However, none of the new releases from August 11th were unable to unseat the holdovers on the combined DVD and Blu-ray chart for August 16th chart. This left Insurgent in first place with 303,000 units / $4.85 million for the week, giving it totals of 1.17 million units / $18.95 million after two weeks of release.
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International Box Office: Summer is Terminated
September 10, 2015
Terminator: Genisys remained in first place on the international chart, but with only $11.5 million in 8 markets. This lifted its international total to $346.3 million, while it now has $435.9 million worldwide. This helped the film become the second biggest hit in the franchise, assuming you don't take inflation into account. In China, the film managed $26.67 million, but that was for the full week, giving the film a total of $111.92 million after 15 days of release.
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Contest: Give the Wheel a Spin: Winning Announcement
September 9, 2015
The winners of our Give the Wheel a Spin contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for The Transporter Refueled opening weekend were...
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Per Theater Chart: Black Panther Tickled Pink
September 9, 2015
There was just one film in the $10,000 club, The Black Panthers: Vanguard of the Revolution, which earned $20,215 in its lone theater over the weekend. This is even more impressive, as it was a Wednesday release and earned $28,580 over five days. While it was the only film to reach $10,000 over the three-day weekend,
Un gallo con muchos huevos did earn an average of $11,030 if you include Monday.
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Weekend Wrap-Up: New Releases were Simply Resistible
September 9, 2015
While first trying to come up with picture / title ideas for the weekend columns, I saw the image above and was reminded of "Simply Irresistible" by Robert Palmer. Ever since then, the song has been stuck in my head. It's been there for more than 48 hours now and I'm starting to think I will need medical help getting rid of it. The overall box office was more or less in line with Friday's expectations. A Walk in the Woods matched predictions (nearly) perfectly, while The Transporter Refueled was on the low end of expectations. Fortunately, War Room showed off strong legs leaping into first place. It was able to help the overall box office grow 3.5% to $90 million over the three-day weekend. This was 38% higher than the same weekend last year; however, this is due to a misalignment of holidays. Compared to last labor day, the box office was 18% lower. With that, the summer of 2015 is officially over and while records were broken, the overall box office was actually the second best on record, falling just short of 2013 at $4.48 billion to $4.75 billion. Year-to-date, 2015 has a 5.3% lead over 2014 at $7.53 billion to $7.15 billion.
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Home Market Releases for September 8th, 2015
September 8, 2015
The home market is not particularly strong. The Age of Adaline is the biggest first-run release of the week, at least as far as physical releases are concerned. The Avengers: Age of Ultron is coming out on Video on Demand and it is bigger than all other releases combined. However, I really think it is a waste to rent it, as the Blu-ray is Pick of the Week material. Or to be more accurate, it will be Pick of the Week when it comes out in October. As for the Pick of the Week for this week, I'm going with Over the Garden Wall on DVD.
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Featured Blu-ray / DVD Review: The Age of Adaline
September 7, 2015
The Age of Adaline was a late April release, which is one of three dumping grounds throughout the calender. The big summer releases are just around the corner and are sucking up all of the available hype. Because of this, it is hard for a late April release to thrive and studios tend to dump misfires or counter-programming films during these weeks. So is The Age of Adaline a misfire? Or does it fit nicely into the counter-programming role?
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Weekend Estimates: War Room Stays Strong to Top Chart
September 6, 2015
Summer, 2015 comes to a sedate finish this weekend, with The Transporter Refueled falling flat, and War Room moving to the top of the chart in its second weekend in release. The faith-based drama is expected to earn $9.3 million for the three-day portion of the weekend, comfortably clear of Straight Outta Compton’s $8.8 million in its fourth weekend. War Room will top the chart while playing in only 1,526 theaters, the fewest theaters for a number one film since the Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour topped the chart from 683 theaters back in 2008 (see fewest theaters for number one movie since 2000).
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Friday Estimates: Will Slow and Steady Win in the End?
September 5, 2015
As expected, The Transporter Refueled earned first place on Friday with $2.4 million. However, bad reviews will lead to a front-loaded weekend, so it won’t last there long. I think the best comparison is The Transporter 2, which was also released on Labor Day long weekend. That film opened with $5.57 million on the Friday, and earned $16.54 million / $20.10 million after three and four days respectively. If The Transporter Refueled had the same internal multiplier, it would make $7.1 million / $8.7 million. However, The Transporter 2 also earned better reviews, so it would be best to shave a few points off, to give The Transporter Refueled just under $7 million over the three day weekend and just over $8 million including Monday. That’s a disappointing start, even for a film that wasn’t expected to do well at the box office.
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Limited and VOD Releases: Before You Go to the Movies
September 4, 2015
As bad as the overall box office looks, the list of limited releases is arguably worse. The biggest limited release in terms of buzz is Before We Go, a film that was earning zero positive reviews when I checked late last night. (A couple of positive reviews have since trickled in.) That's not to say there are no films earning overwhelmingly positive reviews. The Black Panthers: Vanguard of the Revolution and Elle L'Adore are both being praised by critics. However, as a documentary and a foreign-language film respectively, their box office chances are not strong.
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Contest: The Perfect Prize
September 4, 2015
Next weekend is the weekend after Labor Day long weekend, which is historically the worst weekend at the box office. This year appears to be a rare exception to that general rule, as there are two films opening wide, The Perfect Guy and The Visit, and neither is expected to truly bomb. Unfortunately for me, those two films are expected to be in a real coin toss for first place over the weekend. I was going to do some research to figure out which film is most likely to earn first place, but instead I went with literally a coin toss. ... The Perfect Guy won and is the target film for this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The Perfect Guy.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of The Age of Adaline on DVD.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a second copy of The Age of Adaline on DVD.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a copy of Camilla Dickinson on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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Weekend Predictions: Will the Box Office Run Out of Gas?
September 4, 2015
It's Labor Day long weekend, the weakest long weekend of the year. There are two films looking to grab spots in the top five, The Transporter Refueled and A Walk in the Woods. They will have to contend with Straight Outta Compton, but more importantly, they will have to compete with last chance outdoor activities. This weekend last year, the best new release was The Identical, which is one of the biggest bombs of all time. We won't have a repeat of that this year, so hopefully fall can start on a winning note.
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International Box Office: Terminator Generates Black Ink
September 3, 2015
Terminator Genisys remained in first place with $23.6 million in 26 markets over the weekend for totals of $320.1 million internationally and $409.5 million worldwide. In China, the film pulled in $23.4 million over the weekend for an eight-day total of $85.15 million in that market. It is going to hit the century mark in that market, while its overall worldwide number is high enough to break even.
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Home Market Numbers: Insurgent Leads, but Home Market is not very Diverse
September 3, 2015
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Only two and a half new releases from August 2nd reached the combined DVD and Blu-ray chart for August 9th chart. Insurgent led the way with 904,000 units and $14.71 million during its first week of release for a Blu-ray share of 54%. This is substantially lower than Divergent's opening week, which is a troubling sign for the franchise. Speaking of the franchise, there was also a Double-Feature, which placed third with 130,000 units / $2.98 million for an opening week Blu-ray share of 48%.
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Contest: Check Up: Winning Announcement
September 2, 2015
The winners of our Check Up contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for We Are Your Friends opening weekend were...
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Per Theater Chart: Grandma Takes Victory Lap
September 2, 2015
Grandma remained on top of the per theater chart, which is impressive in its own right. While it is not uncommon for a movie to repeat on top of the overall box office, doing so on the per theater chart is a lot rarer. This is because the films most likely to win on the per theater chart are limited releases and if they do well enough to win, they tend to expand the following week. This is what happened with Grandma, which saw its theater count rise from 4 to 19, but its per theater average was still top at $15,330. The only other film in the $10,000 club was War Room, which earned an average of $10,001. That's cutting it really close.
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Home Market Releases for September 1st, 2015
September 1, 2015
Summer is officially over, both in theaters and on the home market. This week, the new releases are led by Mad Max: Fury Road, which was not only one of the biggest hits of the summer, it was also one of the best. Nearly everything else of note is TV on DVD, so if you are a fan of those releases, it will be an expensive week. There were several contenders for Pick of the Week, including two TV on DVD releases (Castle: Season 7 and New Girl: The Complete Fourth Season), a documentary (Glen Campbell: I'll Be Me on DVD), but the winner is Mad Max: Fury Road on 3D Combo Pack.
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2015 Preview: September
September 1, 2015
As September begins, the box office is in a slump. August was terrible and only Straight Outta Compton escaped with its dignity intact. Fortunately, we expected August to be terrible, so the box office isn't any lower than anticipated. As for September, there are two wide releases expected to earn more than $100 million, which is better than most years. Those two films are Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials and Hotel Transylvania 2, both sequels. There are four other films that could become midlevel hits, so we have good depth as well. By comparison, last September there were also two $100 million hits, The Maze Runner and The Equalizer. However, there were only two midlevel hits, so it appears this year has better depth. Frankly, 2015 has such a large lead over 2014 that all it needs to do is maintain pace for the rest of the year to be considered a success. If September can help 2015 grow its lead, then the overall industry should be very happy.
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