The Numbers News - November 2016
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International Box Office: Fantastic Beasts have another Century Weekend with $132.0 million
November 30, 2016
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them remained in first place with $132.0 million in 67 markets for totals of $317.5 million internationally and $473.5 million worldwide. Its biggest debut came from China where it opened with $41.70 million, which is a little behind Doctor Strange’s opening earlier this month. On the other hand, the film is already $10 million ahead of what will be Doctor Strange’s lifetime total in the U.K. with $11.07 million in 666 theaters over the weekend for a two-week total of $37.52 million.
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Silence Trailer
November 29, 2016
Historical drama starring Liam Neeson, Andrew Garfield and Adam Driver, directed by Martin Scorsese, opens December 23 ... Full Movie Details.
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Contest: Say Thanks: Winning Announcement
November 29, 2016
The winners of our Say Thanks contest contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Moana opening weekend were...
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Theater Averages: Lion Starts like a Lion with an Average of $30,840
November 29, 2016
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Lion led the way on the theater average chart this week with an average of $30,840 in four theaters. Its reviews are great and it could become a sleeper hit throughout the Christmas holidays. Up next was Manchester by the Sea with an average of $25,541 in 48 theaters. It still has plenty of room to expand and its Awards Season buzz is growing. Miss Sloane opened with an average of $19,932 in three theaters. This is good, but not good enough to think it will expand truly wide. The overall number one film, Moana, was next with an average of $14,615. The final film in the $10,000 club was Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them with an average of $10,880.
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Weekend Wrap-up: Moana Takes on Beast Over Thanksgiving Weekend
November 29, 2016
As expected, Moana earned first place over the Thanksgiving weekend and became the biggest true opener in the holiday’s history. (Technically Frozen opened in limited release the week before and as we learned from Futurama, technically correct is the best kind of correct.) The film was a little more front-loaded than expected and nearly matched our predictions. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them held on better than predicted and that one-two punch helped the overall box office grow 17% from last weekend to $184 million, over the three-day portion of the weekend. This is nearly identical to the same weekend last year; in fact, it was up by less than 1%. Year-to-date, 2016 has pulled in $9.99 billion. 2016 will soon become the eighth year in a row to reach the $10 billion milestone. This is 5.0% / $470 million above last year’s pace. I’ve been saying for a while that we needed to enter December with a $300 million advantage over 2015 in order to come out ahead at the end of the year, so this is great news.
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Why Him? Trailer
November 28, 2016
Comedy starring James Franco and Bryan Cranston opens December 23 ... Full Movie Details.
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Home Market Releases for November 29th, 2016
November 28, 2016
Last week was the week of Black Friday / Cyber Monday, so the massive sales scared away top-notch releases. This week is the week after Black Friday / Cyber Monday and the new releases are even worse. There are a few midlevel releases, like Don’t Breathe or Pete’s Dragon, but the the size of the release quickly drops from there. Fortunately, both of those releases are very good and on even really busy weeks would be contenders for Pick of the Week. It was a close pick between the two, but in the end, I went with Don’t Breathe as Pick of the Week.
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Featured VOD Review: Suicide Squad
November 28, 2016
After Superman Returns struggled at the box office and The Dark Knight became a surprise $1 billion hit, the folks at Warner Bros. decided to reboot the D.C. movies as D.C. Extended Universe using the dark and gritty style of the Dark Knight Trilogy. That hasn’t worked out so far. Man of Steel barely broke even and the mixed reviews made a few people worried about the franchise’s future. The dour interpretation of Superman didn’t work and the editing and pacing was a mess, but at least it had an interesting villain. Batman v Superman was terrible and had one of the worst villains of any comic book movie I’ve seen. When that film was eviscerated by the critics, Warner Bros. stepped in and made last minute changes to Suicide Squad. Did it work? Nope. But is it better than BvS?
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Weekend Estimates: Moana Sails to Thanksgiving Win
November 27, 2016
November 26, 2016
Moana remained the dominant film at the box office on Friday, pulling in $21.86 million. This is lower than the $23 million we were hoping for yesterday, but it still puts the film on pace to break the record for the biggest Thanksgiving opening, currently held by Tangled at $48.77 million / $68.71 million. (Frozen opened in limited release the week before Thanksgiving, so it technically doesn’t hold the record for best Thanksgiving opening, although it does have the best Thanksgiving weekend for an animated film with $67.4 million / $93.6 million.) Moana should earn just under $55 million over the three-day weekend for a five-day total of just over $80 million. This would put the film in a tie with Toy Story 2 for sixth place on the list of all-time best Thanksgiving weekends, depending on how well it does for the rest of the weekend. Furthermore, its 98% positive reviews and its A rating from CinemaScore suggest long legs going forward. It should still be in a lot of theaters on Christmas day.
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November 26, 2016
Next week is the weekend after Thanksgiving, which is one of two weekends that are historically the worst weekends of the year. (The other is the weekend after Labor Day.) Often times, there are no wide releases to talk about this week and that appears to be the case this year, as Incarnate is reportedly only opening in 1,500 theaters. It has not been a good year for releases like this, so I suspect the winning prediction will be on the low side. However, it is the only film with a shot at the top ten, so it is the only serious choice for the target film in this week’s Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Incarnate.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of The Secret Life of Pets on Blu-ray Combo Pack.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a copy of The Secret Life of Pets on Blu-ray Combo Pack.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will the final copy of The Secret Life of Pets on Blu-ray Combo Pack.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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November 25, 2016
Despite earning 97% positive reviews, Moana fell faster than expected down 37% to $9.91 million on Thursday. That still gives it $25.59 million after two days of release, compared to $16.30 million for The Good Dinosaur at the same point in its run. This puts the film on pace for $61 million / $87 million, which is very close to predictions. If the film earns $23 million or less on Friday, then it is slipping and we will have to lower expectations. If it pulls in $24 million or more, then it is gaining ground and that will be reason to celebrate.
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November 25, 2016
While Thanksgiving weekend is a boon for wide releases, the number of potential monster hits in theaters scares away a lot of the limited releases. There are some great releases, like Always Shine and Baden Baden, as well as some bigger releases, like Lion and Miss Sloane. Hopefully they will find audiences in limited release.
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November 24, 2016
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them opened in first place on the international chart with $143.3 million in 63 markets. The film had the biggest opening of the Harry Potter franchise in 16 of those 63 markets, but ironically not in the U.K., where it had its biggest opening. The film debuted in first place there with $18.90 million in 666 theaters. This is the third best in the franchise behind the two Deathly Hallows films. Some of the markets where Fantastic Beasts set the franchise record include South Korea, where it made $10.64 million on 1,431 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $14.15 million. It did the same in Russia with $10.29 million on 1,173 screens and in Brazil with $6.4 million.
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November 24, 2016
Moana started its box office run in first place, which is no shock. However, it did so with an opening day of $15.68 million. This is the new record for the biggest Wednesday before Thanksgiving, topping the previous record-holder, Frozen, which managed $15.16 million back in 2013. Frozen is also the biggest animated hit worldwide, so I don’t think using it is a good idea. Instead, let’s use The Good Dinosaur, which opened this time last year with $9.76 million. If the two films have the same legs, then Moana will earn $62.90 million / $89.09 million over the three-day / five day weekend. That’s a little higher than predicted and it might be too cautious. Moana’s reviews are 97% positive, while its CinemaScore is a solid A. The Good Dinosaur’s reviews were only 77% positive, although it too earned an A from CinemaScore. Hopefully the reviews will translate into better legs and an even bigger opening weekend.
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November 24, 2016
The winners of our Fantastic Prizes contest contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them opening weekend were...
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November 23, 2016
Thanksgiving weekend is one of the most lucrative weekends of the year and this time around we could have a relatively close battle between a new release, Moana, and last week’s number one film, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them. At least that’s what analysts thought, before we saw the preview numbers. None of the rest of the new wide releases are expected to do much. Allied could become a midlevel hit, but I would be surprised if its budget was only midlevel. Bad Santa 2 is on its way to becoming another comedy sequel that bombs. If Rules Don’t Apply’s previews are any indication, it will become one of the worst box office performers of the year. This weekend last year, The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 beat The Good Dinosaur rather easily. However, Fantastic Beasts started slower than Moana, so I think we will have a new winner this week.
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November 23, 2016
It’s Thanksgiving this weekend and that will cause some disruption in our usual schedule. First of all, there’s no midnight preview column this week, but we will of course talk about those numbers in today’s weekend prediction piece. Tomorrow we will have contest winners’ announced and the international top five, while on Friday the new contest will start and the limited release report will be published. As for the Friday estimates, we will try to have an estimates column each day up to Friday, if we get numbers. A lot of studios are going on holiday and we might not get much in the way of numbers.
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November 23, 2016
Manchester by the Sea led the way on the theater average chart with an average of $64,125 in four theaters. That isn’t the best average we’ve seen this year, but it is fourth place for a 2016 release. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them earned first place on the overall chart and second place with $17,954 on this chart. Nocturnal Animals earned an average of $13,315 in 37 theaters. That’s an impressive average considering how wide it was playing. Best Worst Thing That Ever Could Have Happened earned an average of $11,745 in two theaters. Meanwhile, the re-release of Daughters of the Dust was the final film in the $10,000 club earning $10,842 in its lone theater.
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November 23, 2016
The Independent Spirit Awards nominations were announced last night and thus the 2016 Awards Season begins. There were a few surprises and some snubs to discuss, but for the most part, there’s not a lot nominations that broke the established narrative. It’s because there isn’t really an established narrative. This means films that earn nominations here have a much better chance of doing well going forward and Moonlight looks like it could rise up as a result.
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November 22, 2016
Thanksgiving is nearly upon us, and that means we have theater counts early this week from most of the studios. We’re still missing a few (in particular for Fantastic Beasts), but we do know that Moana will be opening in 3,875 theaters tomorrow, and will be the film to beat over the holidays. Allied will also be worth looking out for, and opens in 3,160 theaters. Rules Don’t Apply gets a more modest 2,382 movie houses, and will have Allied to compete against for older audiences.
We’ll report more counts as we receive them.
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November 22, 2016
It’s Thanksgiving weekend, which means Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and of course the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. This week we will tackle first run releases, as well as franchise box sets, although there aren’t many of the latter to talk about. In fact, the best movie box set of the year includes more TV shows than movies in its running time and I’ve decided to include it in our second part, which deals with TV on DVD releases. There are still a number of big first-run releases this year that are definitely worthy gifts. We are going to start with the biggest domestic hit of the year...
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November 22, 2016
As expected, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them dominated the box office earning nearly as much as the rest of the films combined. However, it was unexpectedly weak earning just $74.40 million. In fact, every film we talked about on Thursday’s predictions underperformed and the overall box office was down to $158 million. Granted, “down” in this case is only off by 0.1%, but considering we were expecting significant growth, even a little drop is distressing. Worse still, the box office is off by 8.9% from this weekend last year. Again, we were expecting growth in the year-over-year comparison, so a drop this big really hurts. Year-to-date, 2016 has pulled in $9.49 billion, which is 5.9% or $540 million better than last year’s pace. That said, I wouldn’t panic, as Moana should help the box office bounce back this weekend.
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November 21, 2016
This is the Tuesday before Black Friday / Cyber Monday. It is the last chance for a home market release to come out before one of the most important shopping weekends of the year. However, it also means the new releases coming out have to compete with massive sales and they will tend to get lost in the crowd. Overall, this is a negative for the new releases, which explains why there are not many big titles. The biggest release of the week is Kubo and the Two Strings, which is also one of the best. If you don’t have any of the Laika films, then the Box Set is easily worth picking up. However, I’m giving the Pick of the Week title to Mystery Science Theater 3000: XXXVII, because I’m a huge fanboy.
November 21, 2016
Kubo and the Two Strings came out in the late summer and struggled at the box office, despite its nearly unanimously positive reviews. It wasn’t a bomb and was better than most Stop-Motion animated films at the box office, but that still meant it wasn’t seen by many moviegoers. Should it be seen by more? Or will it only appeal to the niche market fans of this animation style?
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November 20, 2016
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them is doing everything Warner Bros. could have wished for this weekend, posting a lively $75 million opening in the US, hitting $143.3 million internationally for a global opening over $200 million, and getting a A CinemaScore that should give it positive word of mouth going into Thanksgiving. For a franchise reboot, that’s a lot of reasons to be happy, although its opening is well below the openings enjoyed by the original Harry Potter franchise. The worst of those, Chamber of Secrets, opened with $88 million over three days (Order of the Phoenix and Half-Blood Prince both technically had slower weekends than Chamber of Secrets, but both of them opened on Wednesday, and they still did over $75 million Friday–Sunday).
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November 19, 2016
As expected, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them easily earned first place on Friday. However, it only managed $29.7 million, which was well below expectations. This is the worst opening day in the Harry Potter franchise since The Chamber of Secrets. (The two films are so close that the final figure for Fantastic Beasts could be the worst in the franchise.) The reviews are weaker than the franchise as a whole, but its CinemaScore is an A and that’s roughly average for the previous 8 Harry Potter films. The film should still earn between $70 million and $75 million over the weekend, depending on if the high CinemaScore can overcome the Fanboy Effect. I would choose to be optimistic, but that hasn’t worked out this weekend.
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November 18, 2016
There are few films on this week’s list, but most of them are earning good reviews. Two of them, Manchester by the Sea and Nocturnal Animals, are also earning Oscar buzz and I wouldn’t be surprised of both did very well on the per theater average chart. On the other hand, I’m interested in seeing Girls und Panzer The FILM.
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November 18, 2016
Big ape adventure with an ensemble cast led by Tom Hiddleston, Brie Larson, Samuel L. Jackson and John C. Reilly opens March 10, 2017 ... Full Movie Details.
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November 18, 2016
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them pulled in $8.75 million during its midnight shows last night. That’s good, but a little lower than expected and not even the best of the fall so far. It was beaten by Doctor Strange, which earned $9.4 million just two weeks ago. Worse still, Fantastic Beasts' reviews have fallen to 74% positive. That’s still good for a blockbuster release, but it is the lowest in the Harry Potter franchise and will likely hurt the film’s box office performance over the weekend. It should still make over $80 million this weekend, but it will be close. We might have to revise that prediction lower tomorrow when we have Friday’s estimates.
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November 17, 2016
There are four films opening next week, but only one of them, Moana, is going to be a major factor at the box office. Allied looks like it will be a midlevel hit, but it likely cost a serious amount of money to make, so a midlevel hit won’t be enough. Finally, there are limited releases coming out that will top Bad Santa 2 or Rules Don’t Apply. Because the new releases are so lop-sided, Moana is the only serious choice for the target film in this week’s Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Moana.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize consisting or either a full-season TV on DVD release, two movies, or three single-discs kids movies, winners’ choice, from our collection or previously reviewed titles.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, as described above.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will the final Frankenprize, as described above.
Remember, while Moana opens on Wednesday, we only care about the Friday through Sunday three-day weekend.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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November 17, 2016
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them kicks off Thanksgiving festivities this weekend by opening in 4,144 theaters. That’s the biggest opening since Suicide Squad—which opened with $134 million—debuted in 4,255 locations back in August. Fantastic Beasts isn’t expected to top $100 million on its opening weekend, based on ticket pre-sales, but its reviews are strong, and it has a prime opening spot, so it should make a small fortune domestically, and could make a large one internationally.
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November 17, 2016
At the beginning of the month, we thought there would be four wide releases / expansions this week. However, it turns out there will be just one, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them. The lack of wide releases should help it at the box office and there is a small chance it could top $100 million over the next three days. While there are no other wide releases, there are a few films opening or expanding semi-wide. Of these, The Edge of Seventeen is the only one with a realistic shot at the top five. It is earning the best reviews of the week and did earn a lot of film festival buzz, so that should help. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk had an amazing opening in limited release last weekend, but it will likely struggle as it expands into just over 1,000 theaters this weekend. Finally there’s Bleed for This, which is expected to barely make the top ten. This weekend last year, the final installment of the Hunger Games franchise opened with just over $100 million. There’s a slim chance Fantastic Beasts will do the same. Even if it doesn’t, the depth this year is much better than last year and that should help 2016 win in the year-over-year comparison.
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November 16, 2016
Doctor Strange remained in first place with $60.2 million in 53 markets over the weekend for totals of $339.6 million internationally and $492.6 million worldwide. This puts the film ahead of the lifetime total of Thor and into 11th place in the MCU. It will be at least a couple of spots higher by this time next week. The film had a stronger than expected hold in China down $22.54 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $83.22 million. It also remained in first place in South Korea with $4.35 million on 951 screens over the weekend for a total of $36.22 million after three weeks of release. Up next for the film is Argentina on the 24th, while it doesn’t end its run until next year when it opens in Japan.
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November 16, 2016
The winners of our Arrive on Time contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Arrival opening weekend were...
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November 16, 2016
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk earned first place on the theater average chart over the weekend earning an average of $57,065 in two theaters. That’s the good news. The bad news is its reviews suggest poor word of mouth and difficulty expanding wide this coming weekend. Elle opened in second place with an average of $25,467, also in two theaters. Loving remained in the $10,000 club for the second weekend with an average of $11,149 in 46 theaters. It still has room to grow. Doctor Strange was right behind with an average of $11,069. The final film in the $10,000 was the biggest new release of the week, Arrival, which earned an average of $10,390.
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November 15, 2016
There are several prime releases on this week’s Home Market report. This includes the biggest film of the week, Finding Dory, which was previously named Pick of the Week. I suspect a lot of people reading this have pre-ordered the Blu-ray already. Other contenders for Pick of the Week include Game of Thrones: Season Six and Rush: Time Stands Still on Blu-ray. I’m awarding Pick of the Week to Game of Thrones, while Rush gets Puck of the Week, for best Canadian release.
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November 15, 2016
The weekend box office was better than anticipated, thanks mostly to Remembrance Day. Doctor Strange fell less than 50%, which is stunning for a big blockbuster like this. Trolls held on even better and Arrival had a surprisingly strong opening weekend. Granted, the overall box office still dropped by 18% to $158 million, but some drop-off is unavoidable the weekend after a blockbuster release. This was 46% higher than the same weekend last year and that is a lot more important. Year-to-date, 2016 has earned $9.49 billion, putting it 5.7% or $510 million ahead of last year’s pace.
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November 14, 2016
Fantasy romance starring Emma Watson and Dan Stevens opens March 17, 2017 ... Full Movie Details.
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November 13, 2016
Long time fans of Game of Thrones have just one question on their minds... Why is Season Six coming out this week and not in spring just before Season Seven comes out, like they’ve done every year before. Well, I have some bad news for you. Season Seven isn’t coming out in the spring. It’s coming out in the Summer. So will this Blu-ray holdover fans until the next season comes out?
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November 13, 2016
Sci-fi action movie starring Scarlett Johansson opens March 31, 2017 ... Full Movie Details.
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November 13, 2016
While Doctor Strange and Trolls aren’t really being threatened at the top of the chart this weekend, a few healthy new releases are giving Veterans Day weekend a timely boost at the box office. Arrival is the stand-out performer in wide release, with $24 million from 2,317 theaters and an average over $10,000. The sci-fi drama is a critical darling, but is having a harder time with general audiences who might be expecting something with a few more explosions and laser battles, and its CinemaScore is a B. Its potential long-term performance is a therefore a little hard to gauge at this point, but it would be very surprising for it not to pick up a few more theaters, and it might be decent counter-programming to the explosions and laser battles promised by several other films coming up in the next few weeks.
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November 12, 2016
Fantasy romance starring Emma Watson and Dan Stevens opens March 17, 2017 ... Full Movie Details.
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November 12, 2016
Doctor Strange held on better than expected to earn $14.92 million on Friday. This was down just 54% compared to its opening Friday. This is partially due to its reviews, but also due to Veterans Day landing on a Friday. It won’t bounce back as much as other sophomore films do in this case, but even if it has the exact same internal multiplier as it did last weekend, it will pull in $39 million this weekend and match our prediction. It will likely top $40 million, maybe even hitting $42 million, if it is lucky.
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November 11, 2016
Arrival earned an impressive $1.45 million during its previews last night. This is a little more than the $1.4 million Gravity earned this time in 2013. Granted, midnight shows were not as ubiquitous as they are now, but I still think this is a positive sign. Its reviews should help its legs and while our prediction was a little more bullish than most, I’m a little more confident now.
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November 11, 2016
One of the more difficult aspects of this job is keeping track of release dates. For instance, we thought The Love Witch came out two weeks ago, but its release date changed at the last minute. The official site says it’s coming out this week, so if it gets changed again, it is not my fault. It arguably has the best reviews on this week’s list and it is the one I’m most interested in seeing. That said, it is too out there to expect it to find mainstream success.
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November 10, 2016
There are four films opening or expanding wide next week, at least that’s what we thought would happen at the beginning of the month. Now we learn The Edge of Seventeen is opening semi-wide, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk is only expanding semi-wide, while we still don’t know what is happening with Bleed for This. This is great news for Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, as it will have even less competition that anticipated. It is also the only reasonable choice for the target film in this week’s Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Kubo and the Two Strings on Blu-ray Combo Pack.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a previously reviewed movie.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a previously reviewed movie.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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November 10, 2016
This weekend’s three new wide releases are all taking a cautious route and opening in fewer than 2,500 theaters, which leaves Trolls (in 4,066 theaters) and Doctor Strange (in 3,882 theaters) as by far the dominant players. Almost Christmas is the widest new release, playing in 2,376 theaters this weekend. Arrival is in 2,317 movie houses, and Shut In starts out in 2,058 locations. None of the three are expected to challenge for top spot, although Fandango is reporting good sales for Arrival.
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November 10, 2016
There are a trio of new releases coming out this week, but none of them are expected to challenge for top spot. Arrival is earning stellar reviews, but it is also being released by Paramount and they’ve had a terrible year. Almost Christmas is a Christmas movie aimed at African-Americans. It should do well enough to become a financial success, but it won’t be a major player at the box office. Then there’s Shut In, which is barely opening wide and will very likely miss the top five. It might miss the Mendoza Line. This will leave Doctor Strange with an easy first place, while Trolls should remain in second. This weekend last year, the new releases were pitiful. The best earned less than $10 million. If 2016 doesn’t win in the year-over-year comparison, then we are in serious trouble.
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November 9, 2016
Doctor Strange added $118.7 million in 54 markets for totals of $240.4 million internationally and $325.5 million worldwide. It has already overtaken The Incredible Hulk in the MCU and is rapidly closing in on Captain America: The First Avenger. This weekend, the film debuted in first place in China with $44.12 million, including some previews, as well as in Brazil with $7.9 million. The film also expanded wide in Russia earning $8.49 million over the weekend for a total of $15.63 million. On the downside, the film has already opened in all major markets, except for Japan, where it doesn’t open until January. With what it has pulled in so far, anything less than $600 million will be seen as troubling, while anything more than $750 million will be seen as a success.
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November 9, 2016
The winners of our Be Presidential contest contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for United States Presidential election were...
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November 8, 2016
Loving led the way on the theater average chart this weekend with an average of $39,904 in four theaters. This isn’t among the best of the year, but it does show the film has room to grow and that should help its Oscar buzz, which in turn will help its box office numbers. The overall number one film, Doctor Strange, was next with an average of $21,911. The only holdover in the $10,000 club was Moonlight, which earned an average of $14,883 in 83 theaters. It still has room to grow, but its chances of expanding truly wide are very limited at this point. The Eagle Huntress was next with an average of $13,144 in four theaters. The final film in the $10,000 club was Trolls at $11,473.
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November 8, 2016
It’s not a particularly deep week for new releases. A lot of releases on this week’s list were good, but not good enough to be a contender for Pick of the Week, like Daredevil: The Complete First Season on Blu-ray. I reviewed Finding Dory this weekend, but I have already named it Pick of the Week. So the only real contender was Bubba Ho-Tep: Collector’s Edition.
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November 7, 2016
Doctor Strange’s opening weekend was off by 0.069% when compared to our prediction. I think that gives us reason to brag. Both Trolls and Hacksaw Ridge beat expectations by a relatively significant margin. Overall, the weekend box office rose 115% from last weekend to $191 million. That’s 18% more than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2016’s lead over 2015 increased to 5.6% or $490 million at $9.28 billion to $8.79 billion. If 2016 can maintain this lead until Rogue One comes out, then 2016 will win in the end.
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November 7, 2016
Tomorrow is the election and our contest is officially over, so here’s my prediction for the presidential election.
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November 7, 2016
As we recently reported, Finding Dory reached $1 billion this year, becoming the third film released in 2016 to reach that milestone. Is it as good as its box office numbers would indicate? Well, it is from Pixar, so the chances of that are excellent.
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November 6, 2016
After a couple of months of weak box office, and some very disappointing openings, Doctor Strange, Trolls and Hacksaw Ridge are each, in their own way, putting things back on track. Doctor Strange is grabbing the headlines of course, with an impressive $84,989,000 opening projected by Disney on Sunday morning. That’s almost identical to the opening weekend enjoyed by Thor: The Dark World on this weekend back in 2013, and comes without the benefit of being part of an established franchise (putting aside its place in the Marvel Cinematic Universe).
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November 5, 2016
As expected, Doctor Strange dominated the Friday box office chart with $32.56 million. This is 19% higher than Spectre’s opening day was last year, which is great news. Granted, Doctor Strange had much better previews, so the actual 24-hour Friday numbers are much closer. On the other hand, Doctor Strange’s reviews remain 90% positive, while its CinemaScore is an impressive A. Spectre earned 65% positive reviews and an A- from CinemaScore. If the two films have the same internal multiplier, then Doctor Strange will open with $84 million. However, the Fanboy Effect will likely keep it to just above $80 million. This is still a great start and another smash hit from the Marvel Cinematic Universe.
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November 4, 2016
Doctor Strange earned $9.4 million during its previews, which is the best preview performance since Suicide Squad pulled in $20.5 million in August. However, August is a very different month, so it would be better to compare this result to other November releases. $9.4 million is better than the $5.25 million Spectre earned, but well below the $16.0 million The Hunger Games: Mockingjay—Part 2 managed. That leaves us with a lot of mixed signals. The film’s 90% positive reviews are better than all three of those films, so it should have better legs. On the low end, it could earn $65 million, while on the high end, it could still match our prediction of $85 million.
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November 4, 2016
Super hero adventure starring Gal Gadot and Chris Pine opens June 2, 2017 ... Full Movie Details.
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November 4, 2016
Last week was a slow week because of Halloween, but we don’t have that excuse this week. That’s not to say there are no top-notch releases this week. Loving has the best shot at box office success and possible even Oscar glory. Meanwhile, there are a pair of documentaries that are worth checking out: The Eagle Huntress and Peter and the Farm.
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November 4, 2016
There are three widish releases next week, but none of them are opening at a saturation level theater count. In fact, none of them are coming close. Arrival will very likely be the biggest of the three new releases, but it will fall behind Doctor Strange’s sophomore stint. Its estimated theater count is so small it might even open below Trolls. Almost Christmas is looking to become a solid midlevel hit, while Shut In is just praying for a spot in the top five. Because Arrival is expected to do the best, it is the target film in this week’s Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Arrival.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize consisting of a previously reviewed full-season TV on DVD release, two previously reviewed movies, or three single-disc kids DVDs.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize consisting of a previously reviewed full-season TV on DVD release, two previously reviewed movies, or three single-disc kids DVDs.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will win the final Frankenprize, as described above.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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November 3, 2016
Just a quick note that our Be Presidential contest has been extended to Monday at noon Pacific time, because I planned to do a prediction column to go with it and I still haven’t had the time. Also, this is the strangest final few weeks for a campaign I’ve ever seen. In fact, I’ve been paying attention to politics since the mid 1980s and this is by far the strangest election I’ve ever seen. Because it is so odd, it felt like giving everyone a little extra time was the smart thing to do. For those who are paralyzed with doubt, here are a few sites to help come up with a prediction. The most important site is 270towin.com, because you can use the map to come up with your numbers. As for sites to do research, Benchmark Politics had the best record during the primaries, while 538.com was second. Sam Wang didn’t do a lot during the primary season, but his record in 2008 and 2012 was even better than 538’s record was. Good luck. I suspect luck will be needed.
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November 3, 2016
Doctor Strange is the latest installment in the Marvel Cinematic Universe and arguably the strangest one. It is widely expected to dominate the box office this weekend. Trolls is expected to open way back in second place, but still have a strong showing. The final wide release of the week is Hacksaw Ridge, which appears to be getting lost in the crowd. This weekend last year. Spectre and The Peanuts Movie had a one-two punch that earned a combined $115 million. I think Doctor Strange / Trolls will top that figure giving 2016 the win in the year-over-year comparison.
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November 3, 2016
Doctor Strange is widely expected to win at the box office, but Trolls won’t let it do so without a fight. The animated adventure will launch in 4,060 theaters this weekend, well ahead of the Marvel super hero’s 3,882. Fandango reports that Doctor Strange is out-selling Ant-Man, which opened with $57 million, and that Trolls is out-selling Home, which opened with $52 million. So it looks as though we have a couple of $60 million debutants this weekend. Whether one or both can go far beyond that remains to be seen.
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November 3, 2016
Doctor Strange started its international run in first place with $86.0 million in 33 markets. This is 49% better than Ant-Man’s debuts in these markets. If the film does as well here, it would earn $85 million this coming weekend. The film’s biggest international market was South Korea, where it debuted with $12.95 million on 1,500 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $18.05 million. It dominated the weekend box office there. It earned an easy first place in the U.K. with $11.29 million in 602 theaters. The film also opened in first place in France ($5.7 million); Australia ($4.90 million); Germany ($4.8 million); and Mexico ($4.67 million). If the film does as well during the rest of its international run, it will earn just over $500 million internationally. However, since its reviews are better than Ant-Man’s reviews were, it could have even better legs. We will know more this time next week.
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November 2, 2016
The winners of our Burn it Down contest contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Inferno's opening weekend were...
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November 2, 2016
Moonlight remained in top spot with an average of $23,614 in 36 theaters. The film has already reached $1 million and it has room to grow. Additionally, its reviews are Oscar-worthy, so its Awards Season buzz should really start to grow. The only other film in the $10,000 club was Gimme Danger, which earned an average of $14,908 in three theaters.
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November 2, 2016
The Home Market Release Report is a day late this week for a trio of reasons. Firstly, the November Preview was also due the same day. Secondly, it was a very busy week. And finally, I’m suffering from a medical condition a lot of Canadians suffer from this time of year... acute Coffee Crisp poisoning. I’m not saying I ate four dozen fun-sized Coffee Crisps in the past three days... I’m not saying that, because it was actually an even 50. Don’t judge me. ... Okay, judge me. Clearly mistakes were made. It is a busy week, but not very deep week. Star Trek Beyond is by far the biggest and best release of the week and the various home market releases are the pick of the week. There wasn’t a lot of competition for that title, but Bad Moms is also worth picking up.
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November 1, 2016
Halloween helped boost Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween’s numbers over the weekend allowing it to earn first place with $17.22 million. This was much better than the $14.86 million Inferno opened with. While Halloween didn’t happen until Monday, the holiday still had a negative effect on the box office, as it fell 29% to just $88 million. That’s worse than anticipated. Compared to the same weekend last year, 2016 was better by 17%, but it’s hard to spin this as a real victory. Year-to-date, 2016’s lead over 2015 barely budged at $9.06 billion to $8.69 billion. That said, if 2016 can just maintain this lead till Rogue One debuts, then we should have at least some growth at the end of the year.
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November 1, 2016
STX Entertainment has been around for only about a year and during that time they haven’t had lot of box office success. Bad Moms changed that becoming the first film of theirs to reach the century mark. Did it deserve this success? Was it one of the funniest films of the summer?
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November 1, 2016
October turned out to be a mixed month. On the one hand, not one movie earned $100 million, or even came close. However, it was also a more steady month than last October and the last two weeks really helped 2016 in the year-over-year comparisons. In November, we have five films with at least a shot at $100 million, three of which should have no trouble getting to at least $200 million. A little while ago, I thought Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them would be the biggest hit of the month, but the buzz took a hit recently. More on that below. Meanwhile, Doctor Strange’s reviews are currently 90% positive and that should help it out at the box office. The third very likely $200 million hit is Moana. There is certainly precedent for an animated movie to be a monster hit at this time of year, but there is also a lot of competition. Last November was similar in strength, with five films that earned more than $100 million and two films that earned more than $200 million. None earned more than $300 million, so that’s the goal for this November. If we can get one $300 million and / or three $200 million movies over the month, then it will be seen as a victory.
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Friday Estimates: Moana Adds $21.83 million on Black Friday to Earn a Technical Record
Contest: Secret Prizes
Thursday Estimates: Moana Falls to $9.91 million, Maintains Predicted Pace
Limited and VOD Releases: Theaters Are Stuffed with Wide Releases
International Box Office: Fantastic has a Beast of an Opening with $143.3 million
Wednesday Estimates: Moana Freezes Frozen with Record-Setting $15.68 million
Contest: Fantastic Prizes: Winning Announcement
Weekend Predictions: Moana Takes on Beast Over Thanksgiving Weekend
Holiday Schedule
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Theater Averages: Manchester is Something to Sea, Earns $64,125
2016 - Awards Season: Independent Spirit Awards - Nominations
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Theater Counts (updated): Moana Launches in 3,875 Locations
2016 - Holiday Gift Guide - Part I - First-Run Releases and Franchise Box Sets
Weekend Wrap-Up: Fantastic Beast Can’t Lift Box Office
Home Market Releases for November 22nd, 2016
Featured Blu-ray and DVD Review: Kubo and the Two Strings
Weekend Estimates: Fantastic Beasts Makes Fantastic-ish $75 Million
Friday Estimates: Fantastic Dominates Charts, but with just $29.7 million
Limited and VOD Releases: Limited Releases Need Some Animal Magnetism
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Kong: Skull Island Trailer
Thursday Night Previews: Fantastic Doesn’t Quite Live Up to Its Name with $8.75 million - Updated
Contest: Say Thanks
Theater Counts: Fantastic Beasts Opens in 4,144 Theaters
Weekend Predictions: Will Fantastic Be Fantastic? Or will it merely be a Beast at the Box Office?
International Box Office: Doctor Strange Mightier than Thor earning $60.2 million
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Contest: Arrive on Time: Winning Announcement
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Theater Averages: It’s a Long Walk to the Top with $57,065
Home Market Releases for November 15th, 2016
Weekend Wrap-Up: The Holiday Box Office Season has Arrived
Beauty and the Beast Full Trailer
Featured TV on DVD Review: Game of Thrones: Season Six
Ghost in the Shell Trailer
Weekend Estimates: Healthy Arrivals Help Veterans Day Box Office
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Beauty and the Beast Teaser Trailer
Friday Estimates: Doctor Heals the Box Office with $14.92 million
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Thursday Night Previews: Arrival Won’t Get Shut Out
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Limited and VOD Releases: Release Dates are Bewitching
Contest: Fantastic Prizes
Theater Counts: Trolls and Doctor Strange Overshadow Newcomers
Weekend Predictions: Will Any New Release Arrive on Top?
International Box Office: Strange More Incredible Than The Hulk with $118.7 million
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Contest: Be Presidential: Winning Announcement
Theater Averages: Loving Loves its Opening Average of $39,904
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Home Market Releases for November 8th, 2016
Weekend Wrap-Up: Nothing Strange about the Doctor’s $85.06 million Opening Weekend
Contest: Be Presidential - My Prediction
Featured Blu-ray and DVD Review: Finding Dory
Weekend Estimates: Doctor Strange’s $85 Million Gives Industry a Much-Needed Boost
Friday Estimates: Doctor Strange Heals the Box Office with $32.56 million
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Thursday Night Previews: Strange Trolls the Competition with $9.4 million
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Wonder Woman Trailer
Limited and VOD Releases: Loving These Limited Releases
Contest: Arrive on Time
Contest: Be Presidential - Extended
Weekend Predictions: Will Audiences Find Doctor Too Strange?
Theater Counts (updated): Trolls just ahead of Doctor Strange 4,060 vs. 3,882
International Box Office: Nothing Strange About Doctor’s $86.0 million International Debut
Contest: Burn it Down: Winning Announcement
Theater Averages: Moonlight Remains Full earning an average of $23,614
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Home Market Releases for November 1st, 2016
Weekend Wrap-Up: Madea puts out Inferno’s Fire earning $17.22 million
Featured Blu-ray and DVD Review: Bad Moms
2016 Preview: November