The Numbers News - December 2016
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Friday Estimates: Rogue One and Sing Hold a High Note with $18.18 million and $16.8 million
December 31, 2016
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story and Sing continue to dominate the box office, which is great news for us, as Disney and Universal are practically the only major studios releasing numbers this weekend. The holidays are incredibly important at the box office, but they also make our job harder to do. As for the actual box office numbers, Rogue One led the way with $18.18 million on Friday for an 15-day total of $393.55 million. This is lower than expected and it will fall week-to-week; however, it will finish the three-day weekend with just over $50 million becoming the third film released in 2016 to get to $400 million domestically in the process. It also remained on pace for $500 million domestically and $1 billion worldwide.
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Limited and VOD Releases: Which Releases will Make some Noise?
December 30, 2016
The last weekend of the year is also the last chance for Oscar contenders to qualify for the Oscars. Two of the three films on this week’s list are absolutely Oscar-bait. Paterson has a better shot at Awards Season glory than The Founder does, but The Founder has a wide expansion planned for January, so it will likely do better at the box office. Meanwhile, the third film, Ocean Waves, is earning the best reviews and is a must see for fans of Studio Ghibli.
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Contest: Blood Oath
December 29, 2016
There is only one film opening wide next week, Underworld: Blood Wars. (There are also two films expanding wide or semi-wide.) Because there’s only one true wide release, it is the only real choice for the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Underworld: Blood Wars.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize consisting or either a full-season TV on DVD release, two movies, or three single-discs kids movies, winners’ choice, from our collection of previously reviewed titles. Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize consisting or either a full-season TV on DVD release, two movies, or three single-discs kids movies, winners’ choice, from our collection of previously reviewed titles. Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will be the final winner of a Frankenprize consisting or either a full-season TV on DVD release, two movies, or three single-discs kids movies, winners’ choice, from our collection of previously reviewed titles.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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Weekend Predictions: Old Movies Ring Out the New Year
December 29, 2016
The weekend after Christmas Day is usually a boring weekend with no wide releases to speak of. On the other hand, we do have a monster hit to keep track of, as well as some Awards Season hopefuls that are expanding significantly and could make the top ten. Of course, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story will win this weekend and it should in fact grow from last weekend, because Christmas Eve is a dead zone at the box office. Likewise, Sing should grow even better, as it is the last weekend for families to hit theaters before school starts. Some of the other films that debuted last week are not looking so good. This weekend last year was actually the first weekend of 2016, which makes it harder to compare the two weekends. Again, we need to switch to the Strowbrinian Calendar that I mentioned at the end of the December Preview. The Force Awakens earned just over $90 million and while Rogue One won’t match that, it should be closer than most were expecting.
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International Box Office: Rogue Remains in First with $135.5 million, While International Films Flourish
December 29, 2016
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story remained in first place with $47.1 million in 54 markets for totals of $237.4 million internationally and $523.4 million worldwide. The film “struggled” over the weekend, but mainly due to the holidays. Christmas Eve is as big of a dead zone in most of Europe as it is here; in fact, a lot of theaters close on Christmas Eve. Likewise, a lot of theaters in the U.K. and Australia are closed on Christmas day. Even so, the film has already cracked $10 million in a number of major markets, starting with the the U.K., where it has $42.1 million. Germany and France are neck-and-neck with $21.8 million and $19.6 million respectively. The film has pulled in $17.84 million in Australia and $16.7 million in Japan. Next week we will have a better picture where the film is heading, as the holidays will be over in most places. I think $1 billion worldwide is a safe bet.
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Contest: Why Me: Winning Announcement
December 28, 2016
The winners of our Why Me? contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Why Him? opening weekend were...
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Theater Averages: Silence Speaks Volumes with an Average of $32,720
December 28, 2016
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Silence scored first place on the theater average chart earning an average of $32,720 in four theaters. Patriots Day was next with an average of $23,044 in seven theaters. Most impressively, Hidden Figures earned an average of $20,620 in 25 theaters, in just one day. The final film in the $10,000 club was the overall number one film, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story with an average of $15,404.
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Weekend Wrap-Up, Mostly: Rogue Sings Above the Rest with $96.12 million
December 28, 2016
The week between Christmas and New Year’s Day is always a mess, as getting information from studios can be hard. For example, Sony, Warner Bros., and a lot of smaller studios are not releasing any box office numbers until January 3rd. On the one hand, good for them for allowing their employees who do this particular job to have a full week off. On the other hand, it does make our job harder, as we are stuck with less accurate estimates until then. Worse still, Passengers’ performance is one of the most interesting stories to talk about. More on that below. As for the actual box office numbers, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story dominated with $96.12 million over the four-day weekend. Only Sing was remotely close to that with $54.93 million. Although, it was a Wednesday release so its six-day opening was $75.44 million and that’s impressive. The rest of the films in the top five were less impressive. Both Passengers and Assassin’s Creed cost a lot to make and neither will break even. Why Him? will need long legs to become a midlevel hit, but Christmas time tends to give a film long legs. Meanwhile, with only two days of numbers, it is too soon to tell how well Fences will do. Due to the lack of final numbers it is impossible to compare these box office numbers to last week or last year. Suffice it to say, 2016 will come out ahead in the year-over-year comparison when it comes to box office numbers, but not ticket sales. It is currently approximately $300 million ahead by the former measure, but 6 million behind by the latter.
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Resident Evil: The Final Chapter Trailer
December 27, 2016
Sci-fi action movie starring Milla Jovovich opens January 27 ... Full Movie Details.
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Home Market Releases for December 27th, 2016
December 26, 2016
This Tuesday is the day after Boxing Day. I don’t know if there is a worse possible day to release something on the home market. There are a few films on this week’s list you could call busted Oscar bait, but almost nothing that is a contender for Pick of the Week. Fortunately, it is almost nothing and not completely nothing. A Man Called Ove is the best release and the DVD or Blu-ray are clearly the Pick of the Week.
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Friday Estimates: Rogue One and Sing perform a duet with $22.78 million and $13.07 million
December 24, 2016
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story grew by 36% on Friday, earning $22.78 million for a running tally of $244.77 million. It has now overtaken Doctor Strange for ninth place on the yearly chart. By comparison, The Force Awakens rose by 80% on this day in its run, but this day in its run was Christmas Day. As I said before, we won’t be able to really compare numbers until after Boxing Day.
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Thursday Box Office: Rogue One Bounces Back with $16.77 million, while most New Releases Tumble
December 23, 2016
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story grew by 12% to $16.77 million on Thursday for a first-week total of $222.00 million. This shows that it was hit by new releases on Wednesday, at least a little bit. It is impossible to compare this day to The Force Awakens, because this day in its run was Christmas Eve. For the record though, The Force Awakens fell by 28% to $27.40 million on that day and had pulled in $390.86 million during the same time period.
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Dunkirk Trailer
December 23, 2016
Christopher Nolan’s wartime drama, starring Kenneth Branagh opens July 21, 2017 ... Full Movie Details.
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Limited and VOD Releases: Which Releases will Make some Noise?
December 23, 2016
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There are a number of limited releases coming out this week spread from Wednesday through Sunday. This includes several that are aiming for Awards Season glory: 20th Century Women, Hidden Figures, Silence, and others. There might be too many great films on this week's list, which means some will not live up to their box office potential.
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Contest: Rogue Pets
December 22, 2016
Normally, we don’t have a Box Office Prediction Contest for the final week of the year, because there are no new releases that week. However, due to a shipping error, we got two extra copies of The Secret Life of Pets on Blu-ray Combo Pack, so we should really give those away A.S.A.P. The target film will be Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, which will be in its third weekend of release, so there will be plenty of information to judge your prediction on. In order to win, one must simply predict the third weekend box office number for Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Also... it’s Christmas time. And that means we have lumps of coal to give out, although not literally. Two of the three winners will receive The Secret Life of Pets on Blu-ray Combo Pack. The third will receive a lump of coal, a movie / TV show on HD-DVD.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will be one of the potential winners of The Secret Life of Pets on Blu-ray Combo Pack, or could win a lump of coal. Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also be one of the potential winners of The Secret Life of Pets on Blu-ray Combo Pack, or they might be the recipient of the lump of coal. Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will be the final potential winner of The Secret Life of Pets on Blu-ray Combo Pack or they might be stuck with the lump of coal.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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Wednesday Box Office: Rogue Wins with $14.97 million, but Sing Hits the High Note with $11.01 million
December 22, 2016
As expected, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story led the way on Wednesday. It fell 15% to $14.97 million on Wednesday for a 6-day total of $204.23 million. By comparison, The Force Awakens rose 2% to $38.02 million on Wednesday for a six-day total of $363.46 million; however, it didn’t have to deal with three wide releases. In fact, it’s only “new” competition was the semi-wide expansion of The Big Short. Comparing the two movies’ daily numbers will get less illuminating until we get past Boxing Day, because the misalignment in the holidays will be playing a major role in the day-to-day changes.
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2016 - Holiday Gift Guide - Part IV - Books, Music, and Anything I Missed
December 22, 2016
We listed the first-run releases, TV on DVD releases and Classics. The final installment includes some books, music, and anything I forgot before. And let’s be honest, there’s a couple of late screeners on this list, because I don’t have time to review them.
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Weekend Predictions: Will Any of the New Releases have a Christmas Miracle?
December 21, 2016
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This week is an utter mess when it comes to new releases. There are five films opening or expanding wide this week, three of them opening on Wednesday. Assassin’s Creed, Passengers, and Sing are all trying to get a head start on the weekend, while Why Him? debuts on Friday. Finally, Fences is expected to expand wide on Sunday, Christmas Day, but we’ve seen recently that “wide expansion” isn’t a meaningful term when studios use it. None of these films are expected to top Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, or even come close. Comparing this weekend to the same weekend last year is nearly impossible, because Christmas Eve lands on Saturday this year and Christmas Eve is a dead zone at the box office, while last year it landed on the Thursday, which is the best day of the week for optimal box office numbers. On the other hand, Monday is Boxing Day, which is a holiday for some. It doesn’t balance out, but fortunately 2016 still has a substantial lead over 2015, so even a really bad weekend won’t put 2016 behind.
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Tuesday Box Office: Rogue One Solid with $17.60 million
December 21, 2016
More schools closed on Tuesday and that allowed Rogue One: A Star Wars Story to hold strong with $17.6 million, which is almost exactly as much as it earned on Monday. Furthermore, The Force Awakens fell 7% on its first Tuesday earning $37.36 million, so Rogue One gained ground, as far as its legs are concerned. It is still way behind in raw box office dollars, while its running tally is now $190.28 million vs. $325.44 million for The Force Awakens. There are three films opening wide on Wednesday, so it will be an important day for the film’s long-term success. If it holds well today, it will remain in top spot till the end of the year.
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International Box Office: Rogue One Takes Down Fantastic Beasts with $135.5 million
December 20, 2016
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story started its international run where everyone expected it to start, in first place. It earned $135.5 million in 54 markets during its opening weekend, which is a mixed result. Hear me out, the film did manage the best opening of 2016 in a dozen markets, including a quartet of major markets: France ($10.0 million); Germany ($12.5 million); Spain ($4.5 million); and the U.K. ($21.59 million). However, it also missed expectations in the same number of major markets: Brazil ($5.3 million); Italy ($3.22 million); Mexico ($5.1 million); and Russia ($5.76 million). Other major market openings for the film include Australia ($10.77 million) and Japan ($7.9 million). So “mixed” in this case means “one of the biggest releases of the year, but not a The Force Awakens-level phenomenon". In a more direct comparison, the film earned just over half of what The Force Awakens opened with in these markets. If the film has the same legs, then it will finish with close to $600 million internationally and over $1 billion worldwide.
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Contest: Going Rouge: Winning Announcement
December 20, 2016
The winners of our Going Rouge contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Rogue One: A Star Wars Story opening weekend were...
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Monday Box Office: Rogue One gets Schooled by The Force Awakens
December 20, 2016
The number of schools closed on Monday was vastly different than the number that were closed this Monday last year. As a result, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story plummeted when compared to The Force Awakens. Rogue One fell 53% to $17.60 million compared to a 34% decline and a $40.11 million Monday haul for The Force Awakens. This gap should narrow as more schools close for the holidays, but The Force Awakens will continue to add to its $288.08 million to $172.68 million lead over Rogue One.
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Theater Averages: Rogue Rules Theater Average Chart with $37,306
December 20, 2016
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story led the way on the theater average chart with an average of $37,306. This wasn’t that far above the second place film, Fences, which earned an average of $32,366. Meanwhile, last week’s winner, La La Land, was pushed into third place with an average of $20,510.
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xXx: Return of Xander Cage Trailer
December 20, 2016
Action movie starring Vin Diesel opens January 20, 2017 ... Full Movie Details.
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Weekend Wrap-Up: Rogue One has Apocalyptic Opening of $155.08 million
December 19, 2016
As expected, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story dominated the weekend box office chart with $155.08 million. This is well over twice as much as every other release combined. It is nearly twice as much as last weekend’s total box office. This helped the box office grow by 154%, reaching $211 million. Sadly, this was over $100 million or 32% lower than the same weekend last year when The Force Awakens dominated the chart. The year-over-year decline can be best summed up as within expectations. 2016 is still ahead of 2015 by a massive amount at $10.47 billion to $9.96 billion, but that will change as we see more numbers for Rogue One come in. On a more big picture look, Disney became the first studio ever to hit $7 billion worldwide in one year. They now have the record for biggest yearly domestic box office and biggest yearly worldwide box office, while it is just $160 million away from the international record as well.
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Home Market Releases for December 20th, 2016
December 19, 2016
It’s the final Tuesday before Christmas and there are a few big releases that are trying to become last minute gifts. Sully is the best of the big releases, but according to Amazon.com, Dolly Parton's Christmas of Many Colors: Circle of Love is the best-selling new release of the week. I guess a very recent Christmas TV special makes sense near the top, but appearing at the very top it is surprising. As for the Pick of the Week, it is a coin-toss between Sully and Hitchcock/Truffaut on DVD or Blu-ray. Sully won the coin-toss.
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Featured Blu-ray and DVD Review: X-Men: Apocalypse
December 19, 2016
I know what you are thinking. “Didn’t X-Men: Apocalypse come out on DVD and Blu-ray Combo Pack in early October?” Yes. However, the screener didn’t arrive till November and that’s too late to get a review done. That said, no screeners arrived this week, so I thought I might was well write a late review rather than do nothing.
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Blade Runner 2049 Teaser Trailer
December 19, 2016
Sci-fi action movie with Ryan Gosling and Harrison Ford opens October 6, 2017 ... Full Movie Details.
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Weekend Estimates: Rogue One Blasts Off with $155 Million
December 18, 2016
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story is set for the second-biggest weekend in December, third-biggest weekend of 2016, and twelfth-biggest weekend of all time, with Disney predicting a weekend of $155 million, as of Sunday morning. Needless to say, that’s a great result for the Star Wars spin-off, beating the studio’s pre-release guidance, and hitting or exceeding the numbers that most in the industry were expecting. Our model predicted $151 million as of yesterday morning, so the film is maintaining its momentum through the weekend, and there are some reasons to believe that Rogue One may beat Disney’s Sunday projection.
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Friday Estimates: Rogue One’s $71.07 Million Opening Day Sets Stage for $150 Million Debut
December 17, 2016
There’s a lot of great news coming out of Friday. For starters, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story earned $70.07 million. This means its previews were 41% of its opening day figure, compared to 48% for The Force Awakens. I was expecting Rogue One to bounce back a little bit from its previews, but not this much. If Rogue One merely maintains The Force Awakens’ internal multiplier, it will earn $148 million over the weekend. There are some positive factors and some negative factors. For example, not all schools are closed on Monday, so it won’t be able to hold onto its box office numbers on Sunday, at least not as well as The Force Awakens did. However, its prospects improved from the afternoon shows to the evening shows and that shows word-of-mouth is strong. This makes sense, as its reviews have settled at 84% positive and it scored an A from CinemaScore. An opening weekend of $150 million is certainly within reach; our model is predicting $151 million. Disney is predicting a more cautious $145 million to $150 million.
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Snatched Trailer
December 16, 2016
Comedy with Amy Schumer and Goldie HawnMay 12, 2017 ... Full Movie Details.
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Rogue’s Day One International Numbers are a Fast Start to $1 Billion
December 16, 2016
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story earning just over 50% of what The Force Awakens earned could be a trend for Rogue One, as the film earned the tenth biggest opening day in Australia with $4.78 million, or 50.5% of The Force Awakens’ record. Both of those figures are in Australian dollars. Its Australian opening day was $3.55 million in American dollars. The film also opened in the U.K. with $5.0 million, compared to the $14.3 million The Force Awakens earned during its opening day in the U.K. This is quite a bit lower, but The Force Awakens was an absolute monster hit in the U.K. The film earned $3.1 million in France, compared to $5.2 million for The Force Awakens. Rogue One also earned $3.1 million in Germany, compared to $7.1 million for The Force Awakens.
Limited and VOD Releases: Good Fences Make Good Neighbors
December 16, 2016
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story scared away most wide releases and limited releases. That’s not to say there is nothing on this week’s list worth checking out. In fact, Fences was bumped up a week before its wide expansion on Christmas day. That is the only film on this list likely to have any presence at the box office.
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Thursday Night Previews: Rogue’s Previews are One Half of Force Awakens at $29 million
December 16, 2016
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story earned a massive $29 million in previews on Thursday, easily topping the $25 million Civil War made earlier this year. It also topped Batman v Superman, which earned $27.7 million, which was the previous yearly record for preview. However, while it topped the yearly chart in that regard, it was barely more than half of the $57 million The Force Awakens managed this time last year. The film’s slightly weaker reviews could lead to shorter legs. However, I think the massive hype surrounding The Force Awakens made it more front-loaded than Rogue One will be, at least during its opening weekend. I’m still going with just over $140 million during its opening weekend, but maybe $141 million is more likely now. I am a little less bullish than most and an opening north of $150 million would not be shocking.
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Contest: Why Me?
December 15, 2016
There are five films opening wide next week. Of these, Why Him? could be the smallest film of the week, but it is also the only film opening on Friday. That makes it less than an ideal target film, but the best we have this week. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Why Him?
Also... it’s Christmas time. And that means we have lumps to coal to give out, although not literally. Two of the three winners will receive either two previously reviewed movies or one TV on DVD release pulled randomly from the prize pool. The third will receive a lump of coal, a movie / TV show on HD-DVD. I doubt anyone reading this still has a working HD-DVD player hooked up.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will be one of the potential winners. Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also be one of the potential winners Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will be the final potential winners
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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Theater Counts: Rogue One Will Open in Massive 4,157 Theaters
December 15, 2016
Finding tickets might be a challenge in some cases, but finding a theater that’s playing Rogue One: A Star Wars Story this weekend won’t be hard, with Disney announcing early this afternoon that the Star Wars spin-off will debut in 4,157 theaters, just a shade more than the 4,134-theater opening that helped The Force Awakens to all those box office records this time last year. Rogue One isn’t expected to hit those heights—our weekend prediction is $143 million—but it will certainly be the second-biggest opener in December. Its target on the all-time best openings in December chart is the $149 million earned by Episode VII in its second weekend. Anything more than that would be outstanding, even by this franchise’s impossibly high standards.
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I, Daniel Blake Trailer
December 15, 2016
Drama directed by Ken Loach opens for an Oscar-qualifying run on December 23, and then goes into limited release on January 6 ... Full Movie Details.
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Weekend Predictions: Will Rogue Awaken the Box Office?
December 15, 2016
It is a deceptively busy weekend, as there are two wide releases, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story and Collateral Beauty, and two films that are “expanding wide”, Manchester by the Sea and La La Land. However, while that looks like a lot, in reality Rogue One: A Star Wars Story is the only film most people are talking about. In fact, it is going to dominate the box office to such a degree that its only real competition is The Force Awakens, which opened this weekend last year. Unfortunately for Rogue One, there’s almost no chance it will match The Force Awakens. In fact, there’s almost no chance the entire box office will match the $247.97 million The Force Awakens opened with. 2016 is going to get crushed in the year-over-year comparison. That said, 2016 has a nearly $460 million lead over 2015, so has long as Rogue One tops $100 million over the weekend, it should be enough to keep 2016 ahead in terms of raw box office numbers.
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International Box Office: Beasts have a Fantastic Month
December 14, 2016
For the fourth and final time, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them earned first place on the international chart, this time earning $33.1 million in 67 markets. It now has totals of $480.7 million internationally and $679.6 million worldwide. This will be the last weekend the film will spend in first place, but it should last long enough to overtake Suicide Squad on the 2016 Worldwide chart.
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2016 - Holiday Gift Guide - Part III - Limited Releases, Classics, Foreign Imports
December 14, 2016
After dealing with first-run releases and TV on DVD releases, we come to the instalment of our Holiday Gift Guide that deals with limited releases, classics, and foreign imports. This list should be longer than last week, but hopefully I won’t go overboard.
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Despicable Me 3 Trailer
December 14, 2016
Animated adventure threequel opens June 30 ... Full Movie Details.
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2016 - Awards Season: SAG - Nominations
December 14, 2016
The Screen Actors Guild were the third group to announce their nominations for this awards season. So far there have been three different films earning the most nominations. This could mean the Oscar race will be a lot closer than in past years. This time around Manchester by the Sea led the way with four nominations.
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Contest: Christmas Time: Winning Announcement
December 13, 2016
The winners of our Christmas Time contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Office Christmas Party opening weekend were...
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Theater Averages: La La Lands Yearly Record Result with Average of $176,221
December 13, 2016
La La Land dominated the per theater chart with an average of $176,221 in five theaters. This is not only the best of the year, it is the second best ever for a live-action film, behind just The Grand Budapest Hotel average of $202,792 in four theaters. Jackie was well back with an average of $18,933 in 26 theaters. Had La La Land not come out this weekend, this would have been big news. Now it might get lost in the crowd. Lion remained in the $10,000 club for the third weekend in a row with an average of $11,224 in 15 theaters.
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Weekend Wrap-Up: Moana Completes Threepeat with $18.53 million
December 13, 2016
As predicted, Moana was able to grab first place on the weekend box office chart. On the downside, it slipped a little faster than expected. Additionally, Office Christmas Party missed expectations and this led to the overall box office falling 13% from last weekend to $83 million. That said, this is still 7.0% higher than the same weekend last year and that’s more important. Year-to-date, 2016 maintained its $460 million / 4.7% lead over 2015 at $10.23 billion to $9.77 billion. This lead will take a serious hit this coming weekend when Rogue One goes against The Force Awakens. That said, unless Rogue One opens with less than $100 million during its weekend, 2016 should still come out ahead at the end of the year.
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2016 - Awards Season: Golden Globes - Nominations
December 12, 2016
The Golden Globes nominations were announced and we are starting to see a few names pop up over and over again. La La Land led the way with seven nominations, but Moonlight was right behind with six and Manchester by the Sea earned five. You will be hearing those three names over and over and over again this Awards Season.
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Home Market Releases for December 13th, 2016
December 12, 2016
This is a strange week on the home market. We have one of the biggest domestic hits of the year, Suicide Squad, but it is one of the worst movies I’ve seen this year. (Granted, I’ve done fewer reviews this year and skipped a lot of terrible looking movies, like Independence Day: Resurgence, Warcraft, Gods of Egypt, Allegiant... Ben Hur, The Huntsman, The Legend of Tarzan. I could keep going. Wow! It was a bad year for $100 million movies.) After Suicide Squad, the next biggest release according to Amazon is the Chicago Cubs 2016 World Series Collector's Edition Blu-ray. That’s a huge drop in sales. As far as quality is concerned, I have to give a shout out to that World Series Blu-ray. Real fans want full games and this one provides them. On the other hand, I personally find baseball boring to watch. Unfortunately, there’s no one release that stands out as an obvious Pick of the Week, but instead we have a lot of releases that are close, but wouldn’t be close enough during a good week. The Twilight Zone: The Complete Series on Blu-ray is the best, assuming you didn’t grab the individual seasons when they came out.
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The Fate of the Furious Trailer
December 12, 2016
The latest edition of the world’s favorite vehicular action movie opens April 14 ... Full Movie Details.
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Featured Blu-ray and DVD Review: Pete’s Dragon
December 11, 2016
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Pete’s Dragon opened in late summer and did well domestically. Had it done as well internationally, then it would have been on pace to break even sometime during its home market run. Sadly, it did much worse internationally. Perhaps this means the movie only did well here due to nostalgia for the original film. Is this the case? Or does the movie work on its own?
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Weekend Estimates: Moana Narrowly Beats Office Christmas Party
December 11, 2016
Moana will get to enjoy one last weekend at the top of the box office chart, in spite of a good debut for Office Christmas Party. Disney’s animated adventure will post about $18.8 million in its third weekend, for $145 million to date. It’s beginning to lag behind the performance of Frozen, which made $22.6 million in its third weekend in wide release, and had amassed $164.8 million. That still puts Moana well on course for $300 million domestically, although $350 million is looking like a stretch. Internationally, Moana will earn around $23.5 million this weekend, taking its total overseas to $93.8 million, and its global haul to $238.8 million.
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Friday Estimates: Office Party Gets off to a Wild Start with $6.6 million
December 10, 2016
As expected, Office Christmas Party earned first place on Friday with $6.6 million. Its reviews have settled at 44% positive, which is lower than you would like, but fine for this type of release. Likewise, it earned a B from CinemaScore. Neither figure will help its legs, but neither will really hurt them either. By comparison, The Night Before earned $3.56 million during its opening day on its way to a $9.88 million opening weekend. If Office Christmas Party has the same internal multiplier, then it will earn $18.3 million this weekend. However, The Night Before earned 66% positive reviews and an A- from CinemaScore. Office Christmas Party’s weaker performances with critics and audiences will likely result in a lower legs and an opening weekend of just over $17 million.
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Limited and VOD Releases: Will La La Land Some Oscars?
December 9, 2016
I problably could have cut this list down to one film, La La Land, because it is the only film on this week’s list with a realistic chance at expanding significantly. In fact, given its reviews and its buzz, it has a realistic chance at earning Oscar glory.
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War for the Planet of the Apes Trailer
December 9, 2016
Sci-fi action movie starring Andy Serkis and Woody Harrelson opens July 14 ... Full Movie Details.
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Thursday Night Previews: Office Parties with $950,000
December 9, 2016
Office Christmas Party got off to a wild start last night with $950,000 during its previews. This is much better than the $350,000 Bad Santa 2 earned last month, but that was a Tuesday preview. The Night Before might be a better comparison and it earned $550,000 during its Thursday previews. If Office Christmas Party has the same legs, then it will earn $17 million over the weekend, but its weaker reviews will likely get in the way.
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Contest: Going Rouge
December 8, 2016
Before anyone asks, no, that’s not a mistake in the name of the contest. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story is our target film in this week’s Box Office Prediction contest, but the name of the contest is Going Rouge, because red is a Christmas color. It’s a pun. Deal with it. ... Moving on. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Also... it’s Christmas time. And that means we have lumps to coal to give out, although not literally. Two of the three winners will receive either two previously reviewed movies or one TV on DVD release pulled randomly from the prize pool. The third will receive a lump of coal, a movie / TV show on HD-DVD. I doubt anyone reading this still has a working HD-DVD player hooked up, although two of The Numbers team do....
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will be one of the potential winners. Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also be one of the potential winners Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will be the final potential winner.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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Weekend Predictions: Will the Box Office get an Early Christmas Gift?
December 8, 2016
There is only one wide release this week, Office Christmas Party. There are also two films expanding semi-wide, Miss Sloane and Nocturnal Animals. I doubt both of them will make the top ten, but I would be equally surprised if neither did. At the beginning of the month, I assumed Office Christmas Party would win this weekend, but it is looking like Moana has a shot at the threepeat. It could be a really close race with the two films changing positions on the daily chart. Meanwhile, this weekend last year, In the Heart of the Sea bombed earning just $11.05 million on a $100 million budget. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 earned first place with $11.41 million. Both Office Christmas Party and Moana will top that with ease. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them might also beat that. On the other hand, last year there were four films that earned more than $10 million, while this year there will be no more than 3. I still think 2016 will win, but it could be close.
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Theater Counts: Office Christmas Party 3,210; Rogue One 4,000
December 8, 2016
This is the last chance for rival studios to squeeze in a wide release before Rogue One crushes it at the box office next weekend, but it’s also the high point of the holiday shopping season, so not the ideal time to be releasing a big film. That leads us to having a slightly more interesting weekend coming up than last weekend, with the release of Office Christmas Party in 3,210 theaters and a couple of wide expansions, but nothing that’s odds-on favorite to knock Moana off its perch at the top of the chart.
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International Box Office: Fantastic Beasts have Double Milestone Weekend With $60.4 million
December 8, 2016
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them remained locked in first place with $60.4 million in 67 markets for totals of $424.4 million internationally and $607.5 million worldwide. It reached both $400 million internationally and $600 million worldwide, which is twice the reason to celebration. On the down side, the film has run out of major markets to open in, so it will quickly drop down the chart from now on. On the positive side, the film is already in the top ten on the 2016 Worldwide chart and will climb a little bit more before it is done.
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Baywatch Trailer
December 8, 2016
Summer comedy starring Dwayne Johnson, Zac Efron opens May 26 ... Full Movie Details.
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2016 - Holiday Gift Guide - Part II - TV on DVD Releases
December 8, 2016
The first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide was a little shorter than I would have liked, because there wasn’t much in the way of first-run releases and franchise box sets. The second installment is going to be even shorter. That’s not to say there isn’t a lot of TV on DVD releases that would make worthy gifts, but we limit ourselves to first seasons and complete series Megasets. You don’t need us to tell you if Modern Family: Season Seven would make a good gift, for example. If the recipient hasn’t started watching the show yet, they are likely not into it. (There is an exception to this rule this year, but more on that down below.) The number of high-quality new shows that have a first season out on DVD / Blu-ray are very limited. Atlanta is amazing, but the first season is only out on Video on Demand. The first season of Luke Cage is only available on Netflix. Furthermore, there are not a lot Megasets worth talking about. That said, we begin with not just a Megaset, but a Gigaset. Perhaps even a Teraset!
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You'll be a dentist. You have a talent for causing things pain! - Short Delay
December 7, 2016
I mentioned several months ago that my tooth chipped and then cracked. Well, at the beginning of the week, I was brushing my teeth and it shifted and started to wiggle around. Today is finally fell out. This has caused some discomfort and I have to go to the dentist, likely on Friday. Today’s scheduled columns, Holiday Gift Guide Part II and International Top Five, will be published tomorrow and the Limited Release Report will be a little shorter than usual. Otherwise, there should be no other issues.
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Contest: Secret Prizes: Winning Announcement
December 6, 2016
The winners of our Secret Prizes contest contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Incarnate opening weekend were...
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Theater Averages: Jackie Tackles Lion Earning Average of $55,743
December 6, 2016
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Jackie led the way on the theater average chart with an average of $55,743 in five theaters. Given this start and add in its Oscar buzz and the film has a real shot at expanding wide. Last week’s winner, Lion, fell to second place with an average of $16,651 in seven theaters. Manchester by the Sea continues its impressive run with an average of $14,592 in 156 theaters. It still has room to grow. Miss Sloane earned an average of $11,213 in four theaters. It is reportedly expanding wide this weekend, but that can mean anything from a few hundred theaters to well over 2,000. Finally, Things to Come opened with an average of $11,030 in three theaters.
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Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 Trailer
December 6, 2016
Sci-fi adventure starring Chris Pratt and Zoe Saldana opens May 5 ... Full Movie Details.
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Weekend Wrap-Up: Moana Sails to Victory with $28.27 million
December 6, 2016
As expected, Moana dominated the weekend box office chart with a $10 million lead over its nearest competitor earning $28.27 million. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them also did well with $18.12 million. Unfortunately, those were the only two films to earn more than $10 million over the weekend and this left the overall box office down a massive 48% from last weekend to just $95 million. Worse still, this is 2.8% lower than the same weekend last year. I’m actually surprised it’s that close, because there were four films that earned more than $10 million last year, including the biggest new release, Krampus. 2016 was able to crack $10 billion before the weekend and has a very substantial lead at $10.12 billion to $9.66 billion for 2015.
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Home Market Releases for December 6th, 2016
December 5, 2016
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There are a few releases on this week’s list that are worth picking up. The Secret Life of Pets is by far the biggest release of the week. That said, Don’t Think Twice is the best and the Blu-ray is our Pick of the Week.
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The Mummy Trailer
December 5, 2016
Monster adventure starring Tom Cruise opens June 9 ... Full Movie Details.
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Weekend Estimates: Moana Stands Tall as Awards Season Hots Up
December 4, 2016
The top of the box office chart remains a tale of two movies this weekend, with Moana maintaining an impressive lead over Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, but both movies doing very nicely heading into the Christmas season. Moana tops the chart again this weekend with $28.4 million, for a total of $119.9 million at the end of the weekend. By way of comparison, Frozen had earned $134.3 million at this point in its run, but fell a slightly larger 53% from Thanksgiving, compared to Moana’s 50% decline. The next few weeks should be very lucrative for the animated adventure, which is likely to sail past $300 million at the domestic box office.
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Featured Blu-ray and DVD Review: The Secret Life of Pets
December 4, 2016
The Secret Life of Pets is one of the biggest hits of the year and one of the biggest original animated films of all time. That said, strong box office numbers doesn’t mean high quality. Minions earned nearly $300 million more at the box office, but it is strictly for kids. Will The Secret Life of Pets have what it takes to entertain adults as well? Or is it another movie that only kids will enjoy?
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Friday Estimates: Winter Chill is Good for Moana
December 3, 2016
As expected, Moana led the way at the box office on Friday. It did so thanks to a $6.45 million haul. This is just 4.2% lower than Frozen managed during the same period in its run. If Moana has the same internal multiplier over the weekend, then it will earn just over $30 million. That would be amazing. That would be $6 million better than expected. I think it is going to have trouble keeping up that pace, but a sub-50% drop-off to $29 million is still impressive, especially for this time of year. The film has $97.96 million as of Friday and by the time you read this, it may have already crossed $100 million on Saturday. If it continues to show legs like this, then the film will still be in wide release on Christmas Day, which will be a boon to its box office numbers.
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Thursday Night Previews: Incarnate is a Ghost at Previews - Update
December 2, 2016
The numbers for Incarnate finally showed up and I can see why they were not in a rush to publish them. The film pulled in just $120,000 during midnight shows yesterday. That’s not the worst we’ve seen for a semi-wide or wider release, but it is close. In fact, it is so low that it is hard to find a good comparison. The three recent horror / thrillers we used as comparisons didn’t have previews or didn’t release preview box office numbers. Nearly ever horror / thriller released this summer was a hit, except The Darkness. That film earned $206,000 during its previews on its way to a $4.95 million opening weekend. If the two films had the same legs, then Incarnate will pull in $3 million this weekend. I think that’s on the high end of its box office potential.
Our original story can be read below.
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Limited and VOD Releases: Jackie Hopes O stands for Oscar
December 2, 2016
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There are not a lot of limited releases on this week’s list. Things to Come is earning the best reviews, but it is a foreign-language film and that will limit its box office potential. Believe is the biggest in terms of theater count, but it’s a faith-based film and there’s a chance it will open well below the Mendoza Line. On the other hand, Jackie has the best box office potential and Natalie Portman could win an Oscar for her performance.
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Contest: Christmas Time
December 1, 2016
There is only one wide release next week, Office Christmas Party, as the other two releases are expanding wide. This makes it easy to pick the target film in this week’s Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Office Christmas Party
Also... it’s Christmas time. And that means we have lumps of coal to give out, although not literally. Two of the three winners will receive either two previously reviewed movies or one TV on DVD release pulled randomly from the prize pool. The third will receive a lump of coal, a movie / TV show on HD-DVD. I doubt anyone reading this still has a working HD-DVD player hooked up.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will be one of the potential winners. Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also be one of the potential winners Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will be the final potential winner.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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Theater Counts (updated): Fantastic Beasts and Moana Still Widest Releases, La La Land Looms
December 1, 2016
With Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them and Moana dominating at the box office, there’s not much room for new releases this weekend, although we do have one wide-ish one, and one limited release debuting in over 500 locations. Fantastic Beasts will remain the film widest release, although it drops 156 theaters this weekend to play in 3,988, just a smidgeon ahead of Moana, which stays in 3,875 movie houses.
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Weekend Predictions: Will Incarnate have a Substantial Opening?
December 1, 2016
December usually starts on a really soft note, because the weekend after Thanksgiving is usually a terrible weekend. This time around, the wide release of the week is Incarnate, which is opening in 1,737 theaters and is expected to struggle to reach the top ten. That leaves Moana with an easy route to first place. This weekend last year, Krampus opened in second place with $16.29 million. Incarnate will only earn a fraction of that. On the other hand, the number one film was The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2, which earned $18.86 million during the weekend and Moana should easily beat that. I don’t think 2016 will come out ahead, but it also shouldn’t be a disaster either.
2016 Preview: December
December 1, 2016
November was good, but not great. Fortunately, 2016 had a large enough lead going into November that the month only needed to be good. In fact, it could have been mediocre and 2016 would have still had an excellent shot to end the year above 2015. As for December, it’s a race between Star Wars and Star Wars. Almost no one thinks Rogue One is going to match The Force Awakens, but if Rogue One earns just half of what The Force Awakens managed, then 2016 will come out on top in the year-over-year comparison. There are only two other films with a better than 50/50 chance of hitting $100 million, Passengers and Sing. Either one could earn second place for the month, but Passengers will likely start faster. Last December, the only other film to earn more than $100 million was Daddy’s Home, which earned just a hair over $150 million. There’s a chance both Passengers and Sing will earn more than $150 million, which would be a boon to the box office. However, Star Wars: The Force Awakens was just too strong last year and it would take a miracle for 2016 to have a stronger December. That said, it would take a complete collapse for 2016 not to top 2015 in raw dollars. The growth might not be enough to keep pace with ticket price inflation, on the other hand.
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