The Numbers News - July 2016
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Weekend Estimates: Matt Damon Shows Star Power Can Matter
July 31, 2016
When it comes to “star power” in Hollywood, I’ve been a skeptic ever since we launched our Bankability Index, and started looking at the real influence a single actor has on the performance of a film. With some notable exceptions (Tom Cruise and Sandra Bullock chief among them these days), actors generally don’t move the box office dial much when they appear in a generic film. But this weekend’s opening of Jason Bourne shows what the combination of the right actor in the right role can do. In spite of virtually identical reviews to 2012’s The Bourne Legacy, the new film, a franchise un-re-boot if you will, starring Matt Damon in the role he made iconic, will post a very solid $60 million this weekend. To be fair, that’s a bit behind the inflation-adjusted openings of The Bourne Ultimatum and The Bourne Supremacy, but it’s far better than the $38 million earned by Legacy when it debuted.
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Friday Estimates: Bourne doesn’t have the Ultimate Opening Friday, but still on Pace for $60 million Weekend
July 30, 2016
Jason Bourne dominated the Friday box office chart, earning $22.71 million. I’ve seen reports that this is the biggest opening day for a Matt Damon movie, but The Bourne Ultimatum did better with $24.67 million. That film also earned much better reviews than this film did, so it likely won’t have the same legs. It did earn an A- with CinemaScore, so that will help a little. It will likely have similar legs to Star Trek Beyond. Beyond did earn better reviews, but Star Trek has a bigger fanboy factor, which hurt its legs. That will give the film $60 million over the weekend, more or less.
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Thursday Night Previews: Bourne has Impossible-like Previews
July 29, 2016
Jason Bourne pulled in $4.3 million in previews last night, which is a little better than the $4 million Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation earned during its previews this time last year. Rogue Nation opened with $55.52 million and if Jason Bourne can have a similar multiplier, then it will open with $60 million at the box office. That’s probably a little too optimistic, but it does look like it will beat our prediction by a few million.
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Limited and VOD Releases: Will Forest See some Green this Weekend?
July 29, 2016
It’s a week of “good, but not great” movies as there are a number of films earning Tomatometer Scores in the 70s. Generally speaking, films usually need 80% positive reviews or better to survive in limited release. There are a couple of films with amazing reviews, Gleason and Miss Sharon Jones, but both are documentaries, so they don’t have a lot of box office potential. The film I’m most interested in is Into the Forest, which is playing on Video on Demand.
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Contest: Live or Die
July 29, 2016
Next week is the first week of August and only two wide releases are coming out: Nine Lives and Suicide Squad. ... It is not going to be a competitive weekend at the box office. There are many who think Suicide Squad will earn well over $100 million during its opening weekend, so there’s little doubt it should be the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Suicide Squad.
The main prize this week is a John Travolta Blu-ray Bundle that includes five Blu-rays, plus a Digital Download Code. The bundle is lead by I Am Wrath (Blu-ray Combo Pack), as well as The Forger (Blu-ray); From Paris With Love (Blu-ray); The Punisher (Blu-ray); Pulp Fiction (Blu-ray); and She’s So Lovely (Digital Downloads).
To determine the winner, we will look at the participant who came the closest without going over and the participant who came the closest without going under. Whoever is closest among those two wins the John Travolta Blu-ray Bundle. The other will win a pair of previously reviewed movies.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will be in the running for the John Travolta Blu-ray Bundle. Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also be in the running for the John Travolta Blu-ray Bundle. To determine the winner, we will look at the participant who came the closest without going over and the participant who came the closest without going under. Whoever is closest among those two wins the John Travolta Blu-ray Bundle. The other will win a pair of previously reviewed movies.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a Frankenprize consisting of a pair of previously reviewed movies.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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Theater Counts: Bourne to Open in Hefty 4,026 Theaters
July 28, 2016
This is shaping up to be an interesting weekend at the box office, with Nerve already doing good business after a Wednesday opening, and two films that will, in theory at least, appeal to quite different demographics set to top the charts. Jason Bourne is the hot favorite for the win, and will bow in a very robust 4,026 theaters—the first non-family film to open in more than 4,000 theaters since Independence Day: Resurgence, and only the fifth this year. Bad Moms will be in second place for the weekend, almost certainly, but has a shot at doing very good business from 3,215 venues, so long as people pick up on the good reviews.
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The Great Wall Trailer
July 28, 2016
Action movie starring Matt Damon, directed by Zhang Yimou opens February 17, 2017 ... Full Movie Details.
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Weekend Predictions: Will Jason be a Bourne Again Box Office Hit?
July 28, 2016
The month of July comes to an end this weekend and there are three wide releases hoping the month goes out on a high note. Jason Bourne is the only one with a shot at first place, while Bad Moms is looking to become a solid counter-programming hit. Meanwhile, Nerve opened on Wednesday and it just doesn’t want to slip between the cracks. As far as holdovers are concerned, Star Trek Beyond's daily numbers are average for the summer, but that will still be enough to hit the century mark over the weekend. It won’t be the only film to reach $100 million over the weekend. This weekend last year was led by Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation with $55.52 million. I don’t think Jason Bourne will top that, but since the second best film, Vacation, made less than $15 million, I think 2016 will win on depth.
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International Box Office: Trace is just a Hop, Skip, and a Jump to First Place with $47.37 million
July 28, 2016
Skiptrace earned first place internationally with $47.37 million over the weekend for a total opening of $63.04 million. The film dominated the box office in its native China with $45.58 million last weekend for a four-day opening of $61.25 million. This is the best opening in Jackie Chan's career, but unfortunately, it is only getting a limited release here.
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Contest: Beyond a Reasonable Doubt: Winning Announcement
July 27, 2016
The winners of our Beyond a Reasonable Doubt contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Star Trek Beyond opening weekend were...
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Hands of Stone Trailer
July 27, 2016
Boxing drama starring Edgar Ramirez, Robert De Niro and Usher Raymond opens August 26 ... Full Movie Details.
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Theater Averages: Don’t Think Twice hits First Place on Yearly Chart with an Average of $92,835
July 27, 2016
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Café Society's record lasted just one week as Don’t Think Twice earned $92,835 in its lone theater. I expect it to expand rapidly over the coming weeks. Café Society fell to second place with $16,999, but it did expand to 50 theaters, so this is still impressive. The number one film of the weekend, Star Trek Beyond, earned an average of $15,085. The only other film in the $10,000 club was Train to Busan with an average of $10,547 in 28 theaters. However, Kabali came close with $8,380 in 236 over the three-day weekend and $16,539 including Thursday.
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Home Market Releases for July 26th, 2016
July 27, 2016
It’s a rather shallow week on the home market with the biggest release being Batman: The Killing Joke, which is a hot mess. More on that below. As for the best new release of the week, there are a handful of releases that were contenders for Pick of the Week, including Barbershop: The Next Cut, Deadline U.S.A., and Mystery Science Theater 3000: Volume XXXVI. In the end, I picked Sing Street on Blu-ray for that title.
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Office Christmas Party Trailer
July 26, 2016
Comedy with an ensemble cast led by Jennifer Aniston, Jason Bateman, T.J. Miller, and Olivia Munn opens December 9 ... Full Movie Details.
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Weekend Wrap-Up: Star Trek Tops Chart, but still Weakest in Reboot Franchise with $59.25 million
July 26, 2016
As expected, Star Trek Beyond earned first place on the weekend box office chart and while it didn’t live up to my lofty predictions, it still did very well with $59.25 million. The next two wide releases, Lights Out and Ice Age: Collision Course, had nearly identical openings with $21.69 million and $21.37 million respectively. For Lights Out, this is a breakout opening and means it is practically guaranteed a profit and will likely get a sequel. For Collision Course, it is a sign that they should retire the franchise. Both The Secret Life of Pets and Ghostbusters earned $20 million, meaning every film in the top five topped that mark, tying with the record most recently set last May. The overall box office was 20% higher than last week at $196 million. This is also 29% higher than the same weekend last year. Since last week, the year-over-year competition got a little closer at $6.55 billion to $6.41 billion. 2016 is still ahead by 2.2%, but this is less than the ticket price inflation.
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Featured Blu-ray / DVD Review: Hardcore Henry
July 26, 2016
I just finished reviewing Sing Street and I thought it was a non-original idea done with exceptional execution. On the other hand, Hardcore Henry could be the exact opposite. It is a first-person action film, which is odd, to put it mildly. It earned a ton of internet buzz, but failed to find an audience in theaters. Is it just a cool idea, but a weak film? Or should more people check it out on the home market?
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King Arthur Trailer
July 25, 2016
Medieval adventure starring Charlie Hunnam, directed by Guy Ritchie opens March 24, 2017 ... Full Movie Details.
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Featured Blu-ray / DVD Review: Sing Street
July 25, 2016
Sing Street opened with better buzz than most limited releases earn. It also did relatively well at the box office peaking in 12th place and finishing with just over $3 million. Did this film benefit from the relatively light competition this Spring? Or is it good enough that it should have been released this Fall to compete during Awards Season?
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Weekend Estimates: Star Trek Falls Short of $60 Million
July 24, 2016
Star Trek Beyond will fall just short of $60 million at the box office this weekend, according to Sunday estimates from Paramount. The studio has the film coming in at $59.6 million over three days, which is substantially short of the $79.2 million earned on debut by Star Trek (the reboot) in 2009, and the $70.2 million made by Star Trek Into Darkness. The so-so start comes in spite of excellent reviews, which are now running at 84% on Rotten Tomatoes, and the franchise seems to have trouble reaching beyond its core audience.
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Tyler Perry's Boo! A Madea Halloween Trailer
July 23, 2016
Comedy written, directed by, and starring Tyler Perry opens October 21 ... Full Movie Details.
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Friday Estimates: Star Trek Soars with $22.5 million
July 23, 2016
As expected, Star Trek Beyond led the way on the Friday box office chart, earning $22.5 million. This is in line with the average among analysts, but lower than my prediction. I did warn you about irrational exuberance. Given the film’s reviews and its A CinemaScore, it should have a relatively good internal multiplier. Look for an opening weekend of close to $57 million, which is significantly better than Ghostbusters’ opening with last week and not that much worse than what X-Men: Apocalypse opened with in May. I assume Paramount is happy with this result, but the film will need good legs and a strong international run to justify another sequel.
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Contest: Bourne Free
July 23, 2016
If Jason Bourne doesn’t win the box office race next weekend, then something strange has happened. Because of this, it is the only real choice for the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Jason Bourne.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of the TV mini-series Confirmation on DVD. Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a Frankenprize consisting of a previously reviewed TV on DVD release. Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a Frankenprize consisting of a previously reviewed TV on DVD release.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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Jack Reacher: Never Go Back Trailer
July 22, 2016
Thriller starring Tom Cruise, directed by Edward Zwick, opens October 21 ... Full Movie Details.
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Thursday Night Previews: Star Trek’s Previews are in the Stratosphere at $5.5 million
July 22, 2016
Star Trek Beyond got off to a fast start with $5.5 million during its midnight previews. This is $2 million more than Ghostbusters made last weekend, plus it has better reviews. On the other hand, it is a sequel, so the comparison isn’t perfect. We could compare it to the previous installment in the franchise, but that film opened on a Wednesday. X-Men: Apocalypse earned $8.4 million in its previews, but that film earned weaker reviews and is a comic book movie, which tend to be more front-loaded. I was a little more bullish than most with my prediction, but this result make me feel a lot better.
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Limited and VOD Releases: There are Some Fabulous Movies to Watch This Week
July 22, 2016
It’s a short week for limited releases with just ten films on this week’s list, and that includes a few secondary VOD releases. The biggest release is Absolutely Fabulous: The Movie, but it’s not earning the best reviews on this week’s list. Don’t Think Twice could do well enough on the theater average chart that it expands significantly. However, it might be the only film on this week’s list that manages that feat.
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Equity Trailer
July 21, 2016
Drama starring Anna Gunn, directed by Meera Menon, opens July 29 ... Full Movie Details.
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Theater Counts: Ice Age in 3,992 theaters; Star Trek should win weekend from 3,928
July 21, 2016
Ice Age: Collision Course will be the widest opener this weekend, according to studio reports. The animated adventure sequel will play in 3,992 venues, just ahead of a 3,928-theater debut for Star Trek Beyond. We also have the first official word on the opening theater count for Jason Bourne next weekend.
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Weekend Predictions: Will Star Trek go Above and Beyond the Competition?
July 21, 2016
Star Trek Beyond leads a pack of three wide releases this weekend and there are some who think it will have the best live-action release since Captain America: Civil War. That would be great news for the overall box office. Ice Age: Collision Course has to deal with direct competition and terrible reviews, but it should still do relatively well thanks to goodwill its franchise has built up. The final new release of the week is Lights Out. This low-budget horror film won’t need to earn $20 million over the weekend to break even, but there’s a slim chance it will. In fact, The Secret Life of Pets should easily add another $20 million to its running tally, and Ghostbusters has a good shot at doing the same. So we could have five films earning $20 million over the weekend for the first time in a year. We should have three films earning more than $25 million. Meanwhile this weekend last year, there were no films that earned more than $25 million. Hopefully 2016 will win the year-over-year competition with ease.
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International Box Office: Ice Age Collides with Top Spot Earning $53.5 million
July 21, 2016
Ice Age: Collision Course rose to first place with $53.5 million in 51 markets for an early international total of $127.0 million. The film’s biggest new market was France, where it earned first place with $7.07 million on 873 screens. That’s a pretty good opening for that market, but the previous film opened with $12.76 million in that market, so that’s a sizable drop-off. The film also earned first place in Russia with $5.85 million on 1,236, compared to $16.97 million the earlier film opened with. That’s really troubling. Meanwhile, the film had to settle for second place in the U.K. with $4.99 million in 570 theaters. (We can’t really compare openings here. The numbers we get for the U.K. are actually for the U.K., Ireland, and Malta. It’s similar to the domestic market being Canada and the States. In almost all cases this doesn’t matter, because films open in all three countries at the same time. However, Continental Drift opened in Ireland first, before expanding into the U.K., so there’s no easy way to compare the two results.) At this pace, it looks like Collision Course isn’t going to match its predecessor at the box office. However, it could fail to earn half as much worldwide and still break even on the home market. This might be the last installment in the franchise, on the other hand.
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The Accountant Trailer
July 20, 2016
Thriller starring Ben Affleck and Anna Kendrick, directed by David Fincher, opens October 14 ... Full Movie Details.
Christian Wolff is a math savant with more affinity for numbers than people. Behind the cover of a small-town CPA office, he works as a freelance accountant for some of the world’s most dangerous criminal organizations. With the Treasury Department’s Crime Enforcement Division, run by Ray King, starting to close in, Christian takes on a legitimate client: a state-of-the-art robotics company where an accounting clerk has discovered a discrepancy involving millions of dollars. But as Christian uncooks the books and gets closer to the truth, it is the body count that starts to rise.
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Contest: Green With Envy: Winning Announcement
July 20, 2016
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The winners of our Green With Envy contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Ghostbusters opening weekend were...
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Theater Averages: Café Tops Yearly Chart with an Average of $71,858
July 19, 2016
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Café Society earned first place on the theater average chart with an average of $71,858 in five theaters over the weekend. This is not only the best of the weekend, it is the best of the year so far, topping the previous champ, Captain America: Civil War, which had an average of $42,390 during its opening weekend. Second place went to Hillary’s America: The Secret History of the Democratic Party with an average of $24,938; however, while this is a great result for a documentary, digging just a little into the film’s numbers reveals major weaknesses. The film fell 50% from Friday to Saturday. That’s devastating. We will see if this is an anomaly or a portent when we get this coming weekend’s results. Ghostbusters and The Secret Life of Pets were neck-and-neck with averages of $11,612 and $11,604 respectively.
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The Woods Trailer
July 19, 2016
Found-footage horror film directed by Adam Wingard, opens September 16 ... Full Movie Details.
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Weekend Wrap-Up: Pets Remain Playful, but Ghosts Close Behind
July 19, 2016
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The Secret Life of Pets earned first place over the weekend, however, it and Ghostbusters were a little bit below predictions. They did well enough to keep their studios happy. On the other hand, unless The Infiltrator has amazing legs, it will be a bomb. The overall box office was $163 million, which is 25% lower than last weekend. It didn’t fall as far when compared to this weekend last year, but a 16% decline is still disappointing. Year-to-date, 2016 padded its lead and is now ahead of 2015 by 3.0% at $6.27 billion to $6.08 billion. If 2016 can just maintain this lead for the rest of the year, then I will be more than happy.
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Home Market Releases for July 19th, 2016
July 18, 2016
This week, the home market is led by Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, at least in terms of box office dollars. It is far from the best in terms of reviews. That’s not to say there are no high quality releases this week. In fact, there are five Pick of the Week contenders, six if you include Belladonna Of Sadness, which came out last week, but the screener arrived late, so the review didn’t get published till the weekend. In the end, I went with To Have and Have Not on Blu-ray as Pick of the Week. However, Orphan Black: Season Four earns the seldom awarded Puck of the Week, as the best Canadian release.
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Sully Trailer
July 18, 2016
Real-life drama starring Tom Hanks, directed by Clint Eastwood, opens September 9 ... Full Movie Details.
On January 15, 2009, the world witnessed the “Miracle on the Hudson” when Captain “Sully” Sullenberger glided his disabled plane onto the frigid waters of the Hudson River, saving the lives of all 155 aboard. However, even as Sully was being heralded by the public and the media for his unprecedented feat of aviation skill, an investigation was unfolding that threatened to destroy his reputation and his career.
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Featured VOD Review: Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
July 17, 2016
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice came out on Video on Demand two weeks ago, but comes out on DVD, Blu-ray Combo Pack, 3D Combo Pack, or 4k Combo Pack this week. I’m reviewing the VOD, not because I got a screener, but because one of the people I game with watched it in theaters and demanded others in our group see it, so he’s not the only one to suffer. Is it really as bad as its reputation? Yes. Yes it is.
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Weekend Estimates: Pets Keep Trophy with $50 Million to Ghostbusters’ $46 Million
July 17, 2016
After a huge amount of speculation on how it would perform at the box office, Ghostbusters is coming in right in the middle of (a very wide range of) expectations. Sony is projecting a $46 million debut for the supernatural comedy, which is far from the disaster many had feared, but some way short of the top tier. It’s also not enough for first place, even though The Secret Life of Pets will be down 52% in its second weekend.
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Featured Blu-ray Review: Belladonna of Sadness
July 16, 2016
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Belladonna of Sadness is a bit of an odd film. It is a Japanese movie based on a French book written in the 1800s and that is reportedly based on real-life witches. The film failed to find an audience during its original release, causing the studio to go bankrupt, but since then, it has developed a cult following and earned plenty of critical praise. Is it worth checking out? Is it too strange for audiences? Or is it an undiscovered gem?
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The Wild Life Trailer
July 16, 2016
Animated adventure opens September 9 ... Full Movie Details.
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Friday Estimates: Ghosts Have Lively Debut with $17.2 million
July 16, 2016
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Ghostbusters topped the box office chart on Friday with $17.2 million. This is the best opening day for the director, Paul Feig, topping his previous champ, The Heat by 25%. If this film has the same internal multiplier as The Heat, then it will earn $49 million over the weekend. This seems a little high, but not out of the question. Ghostbusters’ reviews are better than The Heat’s reviews were, although both films earned B+ from CinemaScore surveys. On the other hand, Ghostbusters is a remake, so that tends to make the movie more front-loaded. Look for an opening weekend of $45 million. This is right on the edge between financial success and failure. The film will need help internationally in order to break even, but it is way too soon to know if that will happen.
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Before I Wake Trailer
July 15, 2016
Horror movie starring Kate Bosworth, directed by Mike Flanagan opens September 9 ... Full Movie Details.
Jesse and Mark decide to take in a sweet and loving 8-year-old boy, Cody. Unbeknownst to them, Cody is terrified of falling asleep. At first, they assume his previous unstable homes caused his aversion to sleep, but soon discover why: Cody’s dreams manifest in reality as he sleeps. In one moment they experience the incredible wonder of Cody’s imagination, and in the next, the horrific nature of his night terrors. To save their new family, Jessie and Mark embark on a dangerous hunt to uncover the truth behind Cody’s nightmares.
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Limited and VOD Releases: See a Limited Releases During Your Coffee Break
July 15, 2016
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It’s not a grand week for limited releases. Café Society is the only big release of the week and while its reviews and its pedigree suggest it should be a hit, it might be the only hit of the week.
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Thursday Night Previews: Ghosts have a Chance with $3.4 million in Previews
July 15, 2016
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Ghostbusters earned $3.4 million in previews last night, which is ... a number. Unfortunately, there hasn’t been a film like Ghostbusters to come out this summer, so it is hard to judge that figure. For example, The Conjuring 2: The Enfield Poltergeist also pulled in $3.4 million during its previews and just over $40 million during its opening weekend. However, there’s not a lot of crossover between the two films, outside of the ghosts. Perhaps a better comparison is Central Intelligence which is an action / comedy and the “/ comedy” matters. That film earned $1.84 million during its previews and if Ghostbusters has the same multiplier, it will make $66 million. Ghostbusters did have louder buzz, even if a lot of that buzz was the “Feminists ruin everything” crowd whining, but it also has better reviews. On the other hand, Ghostbusters is part of a franchise, which is going to be more front-loaded. How about Independence Day: Resurgence? It’s a long-delayed sequel, so it has that in common. It earned $4 million on debut night, so if Ghostbusters has the same legs, it will make $35 million over the weekend, although the word-of-mouth is much better here. So we have a range of $35 million to $66 million, or almost exactly what we had for our prediction. We have learned nothing. Fortunately, we will have a much better picture this time tomorrow when Friday’s estimates are in.
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Contest: Beyond a Reasonable Doubt
July 14, 2016
There are three wide releases opening next week, but there’s not a lot of doubt which film will top the chart. Star Trek Beyond should win this weekend over Ice Age: Collision Course, although both should have no trouble getting to $100 million domestically. Meanwhile, Lights Out is nothing more than counter-programming and if it tops $50 million, it will be seen as a serious hit. Because there doesn’t seem to be a race for top spot, Star Trek Beyond is the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Star Trek Beyond.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a winners’ choice Frankenprize consisting of either a multi-disc TV on DVD release, two previously reviewed movies, or three single-disc kids DVDs. Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a winners’ choice Frankenprize consisting of either a multi-disc TV on DVD release, two previously reviewed movies, or three single-disc kids DVDs. Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a winners’ choice Frankenprize consisting of either a multi-disc TV on DVD release, two previously reviewed movies, or three single-disc kids DVDs.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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Don’t Breathe Trailer
July 14, 2016
Horror movie directed by Fede Alverez, produced by Sam Raimi opens August 26 ... Full Movie Details.
A trio of reckless thieves breaks into the house of a wealthy blind man, thinking they’ll get away with the perfect heist. They’re wrong.
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Theater Counts: Ghostbusters debuts in 3,963 theaters
July 14, 2016
Continuing the good news for Ghostbusters in the run-up to its theatrical release, the movie will play in 3,963 theaters this weekend, up from Sony’s predicted 3,700. It’s not usual for a film to get this kind of jump, but the fact that it’s playing in almost 300 venues more than the studio announced last week suggests that they’ve managed to book it in more locations in the past week. Perhaps theater owners are feeling more confident of the film’s chances?
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Weekend Predictions: Will the New Releases get Busted?
July 14, 2016
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This weekend is rather sparse when it comes to wide releases. Ghostbusters opens this weekend and its buzz and reviews are better than expected and it could be a huge hit. On the other hand, The Secret Life of Pets opened with more than $100 million last weekend and unless it falls more than 50% this weekend, it will remain in first place. That doesn’t feel likely at this point. On the other hand, The Infiltrator opened on Wednesday, but in less than 2,000 theaters. Its reviews are barely in the overall positive range, so it likely won’t be a major factor over the weekend. This weekend last year, Ant-Man opened in first place, pushing Minions into second place. Meanwhile, Trainwreck was a solid midlevel hit. I just don’t see 2016 being able to top that depth.
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International Box Office: Cold War has Hot Opening with $44 million
July 13, 2016
Cold War 2 opened in first place with $44.25 million in four markets over the weekend. Nearly all of its opening came from China, where it made $44.08 million over the weekend and $44.78 million, including previews. It also opened in the U.K. earning $128,000 in 14 theaters, which is great for a limited release there.
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Contest: No More Secrets: Winning Announcement
July 13, 2016
The winners of our No More Secrets contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for The Secret Life of Pets opening weekend were...
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Theater Averages: Pets have Fantastic Average earning $23,879
July 13, 2016
There were only two films in the $10,000 club this past weekend and they had nearly identical averages, despite having wildly different openings. The Secret Life of Pets earned first place on the overall chart and the theater average chart with an average of $23,879 in more than 4,000 theaters. On the other end of the spectrum, Captain Fantastic was playing in only 4 theaters earning an average of $23,456. I feel that Sultan deserves an honorable mention. It earned an average of $8,375 in 283 theaters over the weekend, but it opened on the Wednesday and its five-day average was $11,952. It is very rare for a film playing in nearly 300 theaters to do this well.
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Home Market Releases for July 12th, 2016
July 12, 2016
It is a very slow week for the home market. The biggest release of the week is The Divergent: Series Allegiant, which is a movie most people should avoid. (Looking at its box office numbers, most people did avoid it.) As for the best releases, Belladonna Of Sadness is amazing, but the screener arrived late and I don’t like handing out that title when I haven’t had a chance to check out the full release. Fortunately, we do have a backup contender, Everybody Wants Some on Blu-ray Combo Pack.
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War Dogs Trailer
July 12, 2016
Real-life comedy thriller starring Jonah Hill and Miles Teller, directed by Todd Phillips, opens August 19 ... Full Movie Details.
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Weekend Wrap-Up: It’s No Secret that Life of Pets Will Get a Sequel
July 12, 2016
As expected, The Secret Life of Pets earned first place on the weekend box office chart. However, almost no one was expecting it to dominate the way that it did with $104.35 million. There are some calling this film the best opening for a non-franchise animation film, but let’s face the facts... Universal started work on two or three sequels as soon as Friday’s Estimates came in. Meanwhile, Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates has a good opening in the role of counter-programming with $16.63 million. Overall, the box office pulled in $217 million, which was 14% more than last weekend. More importantly, it is 1.3% more than the same weekend last year. Granted, this is lower than ticket price inflation, but since most people assumed the weekend would suffer a serious decline, this should be seen as a major victory. Year-to-date, 2016’s lead over 2015 grew a tiny bit hitting 2.4% at $6.00 billion to $5.86 billion.
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Updates on Possible Delays
July 12, 2016
Just a quick update on the possible delays. There’s good news with regards to the Canada Post labor disruption. (It’s actually a lockout and not a strike as I previously stated.) Negotiations continue and Canada Post has decided not to lock out its workers, as long as progress continues to be made. I’ve sent out all of the prizes, so hopefully there will be no delay. Or there could be a breakdown in negotiations tomorrow and all of the prizes will be stuck in a warehouse for a month.
There’s also some bad / good news regarding my chipped tooth. On Friday, it was perfect. No pain at all, so it looked like I dodged a bullet. Then over the weekend, it cracked. Then on Monday, the back half fell out. ... There’s still no pain. Okay, that’s not entirely true. It’s a little sharp and I keep poking my tongue on it, but the tooth doesn’t hurt. At the moment, I’m in the “this is fine” stage and quite possibly will remain there.
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Featured Blu-ray / DVD Review: Everybody Wants Some
July 11, 2016
Richard Linklater is one of those directors with lots of Indie Cred that rarely have breakout success at the box office. The biggest hit of his career has been School of Rock. Everybody Wants Some was expected to do well enough to earn some measure of mainstream success. Some were even expecting it to be one of the biggest limited releases of the year so far, topping $10 million. That didn’t happen. Is this one of the director’s weaker movies? Or was it unfairly overlooked by moviegoers?
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Blood Father Trailer
July 11, 2016
Thriller starring Mel Gibson, William H. Macy and Diego Luna, directed by Peter Craig, opens August 12 ... Full Movie Details.
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Featured Blu-ray / DVD Review: Green Room
July 11, 2016
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Green Room open with strong buzz, it earned stunning reviews, and it opened really well. However, it struggled as it tried to expand and by the time it was nationwide, its per theater average was below $2,000. Is this something that will only appeal to critics like many other limited releases I’ve reviewed? Or is there another reason it failed to find a mainstream audience?
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Weekend Estimates: Pets Has Best Start for an Animated Franchise
July 10, 2016
The Secret Life of Pets is storming to a massive opening weekend at the box office, with Universal projecting a $103.2 million debut for the Illumination Entertainment animated film. That’s just shy of the $115.7 million made by Minions this weekend last year, and the best opening ever by a non-sequel or spin-off animated film. This performance is particularly significant for Illumination, because it’s their first blockbuster from outside the Despicable Me universe.
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Friday Estimates: 38 Million Know Secrets while Mike and Dave go Stag
July 9, 2016
The Secret Life of Pets had an amazing Friday, earning $38.33 million. This is nowhere near Finding Dory’s $54.7 million opening day, but it’s still very impressive. Unfortunately, for The Secret Life of Pets, its internal multiple likely won’t be as large. Its reviews have settled at 76%, while it earned an A- from CinemaScore and both of these results are lower than Finding Dory earned. Then again, an A- CinemaScore is still a good result, especially since there have been only three films to earn an A from audiences so far this year. (Finding Dory is one of them, Captain America: Civil War and Me Before You were the other two.) I’m increasing our prediction from $72 million to $88 million, which does mean $300 million domestically is now a reasonable final target.
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Limited and VOD Releases: Few Fantastic Limited Releases
July 8, 2016
Captain Fantastic is the only film on this week’s list that I think will do well in theaters. There are some films that are earning better reviews, like Our Little Sister, but no film on this week’s list has the same buzz as this film does.
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Thursday Night Previews: Are Pets On Pace for $80 million after $5.3 million Previews?
July 8, 2016
The Secret Life of Pets earned $5.3 million during its previews last night. This is not as much as the $6.24 million Minions made last year. It is higher than the $4.7 million Despicable Me 2 earned. (Despicable Me opened before previews were standard and only pulled in $590,000.) Its reviews have slipped to 76% positive, but that’s still good enough to suggest good legs. $80 million is more likely now than it was yesterday, but direct competition could prevent that from happening.
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Contest: Green With Envy
July 8, 2016
It is an easy week to pick the target film for the Box Office Prediction Contest. I’m not 100% sure The Infiltrator is opening truly wide, plus it is a Wednesday release. On the other hand, if Fandango is correct, Ghostbusters will be the biggest comedy of the summer and if early tracking is correct, it will have the best non-family film opening since X-Men: Apocalypse. Regardless if they are correct, Ghostbusters is the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Ghostbusters.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Green Room on Blu-ray, plus an additional previously reviewed movie. Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a Frankenprize, consisting of two previously reviewed DVDs or Blu-rays. Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a Frankenprize, consisting of two previously reviewed DVDs or Blu-rays.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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Weekend Predictions: Secret Hopes to be Exposed to Audiences
July 7, 2016
It should be a good weekend at the box office, at least for The Secret Life of Pets. The film is earning great reviews and should become the biggest hit of the month. There is one downside: the competition. There are a lot of options for families among the films currently in theaters, plus another movie from a long-running franchise opening soon. Also opening this week is Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates, which is an R-rated comedy hoping to survive in the counter-programming role. It could become a midlevel hit, or it could fail to open in the top five. This weekend last year, Minions opened with $115.72 million. The Secret Life of Pets is not going to top that. 2016 has better depth, but likely not by enough to win in the year-over-year comparison.
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Theater Counts: Secret Life of Pets debuts in 4,369 theaters
July 7, 2016
The Secret Life of Pets will debut in 4,369 theaters this weekend, according to Universal’s announcement on Thursday. That’s 64 more than Finding Dory opened in, and a hefty 542 more locations than Zootopia. Fandango reported this morning that Pets is tracking ahead of Zootopia, which opened with $75 million back in March. Perhaps another $100 million animated opening is on the cards?
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International Box Office: Independence Day tops Chart, Dory Reaches $500 million Milestone
July 7, 2016
Independence Day: Resurgence remained in first place on the international chart with $40.2 million in 64 markets for totals of $177.0 million internationally and $249.9 million worldwide. Its biggest new market was Spain, where it earned $1.7 million. Meanwhile, its biggest holdovers were China ($11.64 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $66.67 million) and the U.K. ($2.69 million in 603 theaters for a two-week total of $12.16 million). Overall, the movie is doing fine, but the film set up an obvious sequel, so the studio was obviously hoping for more than just fine.
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Contest: Big Fun Prizes: Winning Announcement
July 6, 2016
The winners of our Big Fun Prizes contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for The BFG opening weekend were...
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Canada Post Strike and Possible Delays
July 6, 2016
As you likely know, I’m Canadian. As you likely don’t know, Canada Post is going on strike this week. This will cause two changes to the usual schedule. Firstly, this might delay screeners and if a screener does arrive more than two weeks late, I’m going to do a shorter spotlight review and not a full featured review. Secondly, this will definitely delay any prizes going out. In fact, I’m not even going to attempt to ship them until after the strike is over. Hopefully that won’t be too long. There’s one more thing... I just chipped a tooth. My lower wisdom teeth are impacted, especially on the right side, and should have been removed about 20 years ago, so this was bound to happen. It doesn’t actually hurt, so I’m a little worried I will decide this is fine and not do anything about it.
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Theater Averages: Purge Produces at the Box Office, Earning Average of $11,271
July 6, 2016
The Purge: The Election Year earned top spot on the theater average chart, at least among those films we don’t have doubts about their box office numbers. It pulled in an average of $11,271, putting it just ahead of The Legend of Tarzan, which earned an average of $10,819. The only other film in the $10,000 club was The Innocents at $10,500 in three theaters.
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Anthropoid Trailer
July 6, 2016
True-life thriller starring Jamie Dornan, Cillian Murphy and Charlotte Le Bon, directed by Sean Ellis, opens August 12 ... Full Movie Details.
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Weekend Wrap-Up: Dory Wins with $51.44 million, but Tarzan has Near Legendary Opening
July 6, 2016
The Fourth of July weekend went very well as two of the three new releases beat expectations. However, none of them were able to top Finding Dory, which earned its third win in a row. The Legend of Tarzan was very close in second place, which surprised a lot of analysts, but there might be a logical reason for its success. The Purge: Election Year more than tripled its production budget during its opening three-day weekend, so there’s no chance the studio isn’t giddy over that. The only real disappointment was The BFG, which got lost in the crowd. The overall box office was up from last week, which is a pleasant surprise. Granted, it grew by just under 1.0% to $192 million over the three-day weekend. More importantly, it was 41% higher than the same three-day weekend last year. Add in Monday, and the year-to-date lead rose to $120 million or 2.2% at $5.71 billion to $5.58 billion.
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Home Market Releases for July 5th, 2016
July 4, 2016
It's a strange week on the home market, as there are no first-run releases and very few other releases to make up the difference. There are some contenders for Pick of the Week, but all of them are foreign-language films, which is again odd. In fact, two of them, Only Yesterday and The Boy and the World, are animated. However, in the end, I went with The Mermaid, which deserves to be seen by more and Blu-ray is a great way to see it.
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Weekend Estimates: Dory wins 3-Horse July 4 Race
July 3, 2016
Three new movies entered the race for box office glory this July 4 weekend. One, The BFG, fell at the first hurdle. One of the other two, The Legend of Tarzan is disappointing, but not disastrous. The third, The Purge: Election Year, won the night on Friday and is headed to a great debut. But, in the end, none were a match for the third weekend of Finding Dory.
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Friday Estimates: The Purge Tops Chart, but Tarzan has Swinging Start
July 2, 2016
The Purge: Election Year earned first place with on Friday with $14.47 million during its opening day. This is impressive for film that cost $10 million to make, but it is below the opening day for the first film. The holidays should help its internal multiplier, as will the critical reception. While its reviews have slipped below the overall positive level, they are still the best for the franchise. Additionally, its CinemaScore was B+, again the best for the franchise. This puts the film on pace for just under $40 million during its four-day weekend. This is very likely more than the film’s combined budget, so if it can make this much during the rest of its theatrical run, it will break even just on its domestic numbers.
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Limited and VOD Releases: Loyal and True
July 1, 2016
It is a slow week for limited releases, with only five earning enough reviews to talk about. Of these, Our Kind of Traitor is earning the loudest buzz, but its reviews are only good and not great. There are three films that are earning great reviews, but two of them are foreign-language films and the other is a documentary. None of them are expected to be hits in theaters.
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Contest: No More Secrets
July 1, 2016
The Secret Life of Pets will have no trouble beating Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates at the box office next weekend. It will earn more during its opening weekend than Mike and Dave will earn in total. Because of this, it is the obvious choice for the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The Secret Life of Pets.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Joseph and Mary on DVD, as well as one other previously reviewed DVD or Blu-ray. Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a Frankenprize, consisting of two previously reviewed DVDs or Blu-rays. Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a Frankenprize, consisting of two previously reviewed DVDs or Blu-rays.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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Thursday Night Previews: The Purge Takes Care of the Competition with $3.64 million
July 1, 2016
The Purge: Election Year earned the best Thursday previews out of the three wide releases with $3.64 million last night. This is the best in the franchise, just beating the $3.44 million the first film managed and well ahead of the $2.64 million the second film pulled in. On the downside, the film's reviews have slipped to just 57% positive. That's still good, for this genre and it might be a bigger than expected hit.
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2016 Preview: July
July 1, 2016
It's July 1st, which is Canada Day. To celebrate, I wanted to give a gift to my American readers down south, so here's a bunch of "u"s. U, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u. Now you can spell words like "colour" and "neighbour" correctly. As for the July preview... June wasn't a good month, despite Finding Dory being on pace to become the biggest hit of the year so far. Most other films failed to match expectations and as a result, 2016's lead over 2015 has nearly evaporated. In fact, ticket sales are below last year's pace. So how does July look in comparison? Well, last July, there were five films that earned more than $100 million, led by Minions, which earned more than $300 million. This July, there are five films that should earn more than $100 million, led by The Secret Life of Pets, which should earned around $250 million. I don't think July 2016 will live up to July 2015, but it should be close. Maybe if one of the expected midlevel hits is a surprise $100 million hit, or if two more of the $100 million hits crack $200 million, then the month will look great. Or one of the expected $100 million hits could flop and 2016 will actually fall behind 2015, even without taking into account ticket price inflation.
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