The Numbers News - February 2017

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Home Market Releases for February 28th, 2017

February 28, 2017

It is not a particularly long list of new releases this week, but there are several that are must haves. This includes Doctor Strange, which was named Pick of the Week last week. Other contenders for that title include The Gate on Blu-ray, The Raid: Collection on Blu-ray, and Moonlight on Blu-ray. In the end, it wasn’t too hard to select Moonlight as Pick of the Week. However, The Gate does earn Puck of the Week for Best Canadian Release. More...

Table 19 Trailer

February 28, 2017

Romantic comedy with an ensemble cast led by Anna Kendrick opens March 3 ... Full Movie Details. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Get Out has Out of Control Opening with $33.38 million

February 28, 2017

Get Out beat expectations on the weekend box office chart earning first place with $33.38 million. Not only did it beat expectations, but it also had better than expected legs over the weekend and that bodes well for its long term success. Neither of the other two wide releases, Collide and Rock Dog, earned a spot in the top ten. Both will disappear from theaters A.S.A.P. Overall, the box office fell 17% from last weekend to $123 million. It is, however, 9.9% higher than the same weekend last year. Meanwhile, 2017 remains $100 million behind last year’s pace at $1.69 billion to $1.79 billion. 2017 made gains over the weekend, but The Lego Batman Movie was the number one movie during the midweek and having a kids movie on top hurts the weekday box office numbers. More...

How to Be a Latin Lover trailer

February 27, 2017

Comedy starring Eugenio Derbez and Salma Hayek opens April 28 ... Full Movie Details. More...

2016 Awards Season: A Final Look at the Oscars

February 27, 2017

Oscar night turned out to be... interesting at the end. “Interesting” as in “May you live in interesting times.” The big winner of the night was chaos, as there was a mistake with the Best Picture category. (On a side note, I really hope this ends the conspiracy theory that Marisa Tomei didn’t earn her Oscar. Some think her name was announced by accident and they didn’t bother to correct the mistake. They would have obviously corrected the mistake.) On a serious note, Moonlight’s win is amazing. It has likely the lowest budget of the nine Best Picture Nominees and at the moment the lowest box office. That could change with its three wins last night. Additionally, all three wins came from high prestige categories, compared to just two for La La Land. However, La La Land won six Oscars overall, two high prestige, both music categories, and two technical awards, so it too could be seen as the big winner of the night. More...

2016 - Awards Season - And the Oscar Goes to... La La Land Moonlight!

February 26, 2017

It’s Oscar night and we were live blogging the show. Read on the the highlights of what turned out to be a crazy night. More...

Oscar Predictions: La La Land Favorite to Win Nine Oscars Tonight

February 26, 2017

Voting in our annual Predict the Academy Awards contest is now closed, and we can reveal the final vote totals in each category, along with the rough probability for which film will win each award. This year’s award nominations have been dominated by La La Land, and it is expected to pick up the most Oscars tonight, with Best Picture among them. It has already equalled the record for most nominations, with 14, but it’s not favored to equal or set the record for most wins, with our poll suggesting it will pick up nine awards. Read on for details of our poll.

- Predicted winners in each category
- Total votes in each category
- Predicted and actual winners in each category More...

Last Chance: Enter Our 20th Annual Oscar Contest

February 26, 2017

Voting is now closed in our Predict the Academy Awards contest. This is our traditional chance for you to win some great prizes, and for all of our readers collectively to predict who will win the Oscars later today. The top selection for Best Picture in our contest has gone on to win the Best Picture Oscar 14 times in the previous 19 years we’ve run the contest, and we’ve correctly predicted the Best Animated Feature 12 times out of 15. That represents a batting average of about 75%—an amazing performance when you consider that there are now nine or ten nominees for Best Picture each year.

Uniquely among Oscar contests, when you make your predictions, we show you how many people have voted for each movie so far, and allow you to go back and change your choices. In fact, you can come back at any time to update your predictions as news breaks and sentiment changes about different nominees. But beware our tie-breaking rule: if multiple people correctly predict the same number of winners, whoever made their picks first will win the prize.

Weekend Estimates: Get Out Pulls Off Huge Win

February 26, 2017

If you took a bet a year ago that the Oscar weekend box office would be dominated by a movie with an A- CinemaScore, and a score of 100% on Rotten Tomatoes, you probably wouldn’t get great odds. If you’d included the stipulation that the film would be a horror movie written and directed by Jordan Peele, your winnings would set you up for retirement. For that is what we have this morning: Get Out will easily top the chart this weekend, with Universal estimating a weekend around $30.5 million. More...

2016 - Awards Season: Oscars - Nominations - Final Look

February 26, 2017

It’s Oscar night and we will be live blogging the show. Before that, let’s take a last look at the nominations with a few annotations. Nominees in italics are those that have received the most votes from our readers so far in our Oscar contest (which is open to new entries until noon, Pacific, today—enter now!). Bold films are those films I think will win. Meanwhile, those that are Underlined are those I want to win. Not all categories have underlined nominees, because not all categories have someone I’m cheering for, or because there are two nominees I couldn’t pick between. More...

2016 - Awards Season: Independent Spirit Awards - Winners - Moonlight has a Serious Night

February 26, 2017

The Independent Spirit Awards winners were handed out last night. While they are rarely a good predictor for the Oscars, Moonlight’s performance was so dominant that its chances of winning Oscars have ticked up a couple of percentage points. More...

Friday Estimates: Get Out Gets off to a Fast Start with $10.8 million

February 25, 2017

As expected, Get Out earned first place on the Friday box office chart with $10.8 million. This a little higher than originally predicted, but not quite up to the heights that seemed possible after Thursday’s $1.8 million in previews. The film’s Tomatometer Score remains 100% positive, although I did see that Armond White gave the film a negative review. I didn’t realize he still wrote reviews. His reputation is so bad that a negative review from him is something to cherish. Furthermore, it earned an A minus from CinemaScore, which is stunning for a horror film. Even a B plus is great for a horror film. Look for $28 million over the weekend and an easy first place finish. More...

2016 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Picture

February 24, 2017

With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at the final category: Best Picture. It is not a competitive category with an overwhelming favorite, a long shot with a shot, and then rest have maybe a combined 2% chance of winning. More...

Limited and VOD Releases: Give the Gift of Zucchini

February 24, 2017

January and February are terrible months to release a limited release movie. Not only is it way too soon to earn Oscar buzz, but the competition includes a ton of last year’s crop of Oscar contenders. Worse still, this is Oscar weekend. I’m not saying there are no good movies coming out. My Life as a Zucchini is an Oscar-nominated film and it deserves to be seen. The Girl with all the Gifts feels like it is being dumped on VOD, but the reviews suggest it could find an audience on the home market. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Get Out Starts Out on Top with $1.8 million

February 24, 2017

Get Out opened with $1.8 million during its midnight previews. This isn’t the best previews we’ve seen this year, but it is near the top. For example, it is just 10% lower than Split managed in January and only three other films topped $2 million during previews. The film’s 100% positive reviews should certainly help the film’s legs over the weekend and that’s great news for the studio. In fact, there are some who think it will earn more than $35 million over the weekend. That’s a little too bullish for my tastes, but I can’t entirely dismiss those predictions. Opening with just over $30 million, on the other hand, now feels more likely. Since the film only cost $5 million to make, it could earn more over the opening weekend than it cost to make and advertise. More...

Contest: The X-Factor

February 24, 2017

While there are three wide releases coming out next week, only one of them, Logan, is earning any real buzz. In fact, it is likely Logan will have the biggest opening of the year and could earn more during its opening day than either Before I Fall or The Shack earn in total. Because of this, it is the only sensible choice for the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Logan.

Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprise consisting of their choice of either one TV on DVD release, two movies, or a kids package (could be a theatrical release, a couple of single-disc TV on DVD releases, or a full season TV on DVD release). Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, as described above. Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will win the final Frankenprize, as described above.

Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay! More...

Theater Counts (Updated): Little Room for New Releases

February 23, 2017

Get Out may be getting good buzz this weekend, but it isn’t getting a huge number of theaters to play in. The horror-drama will open in 2,781 locations, according to Universal’s Thursday report, which is on the cusp of really wide, but well behind the likes of The Lego Batman Movie, which continues in 4,057 theaters, and The Great Wall, which will actually gain a few locations and play in 3,328 movie houses this weekend. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Moviegoers Get Out to the Theater This Weekend?

February 23, 2017

There are three films opening wide this weekend, which is a surprise. The buzz for Collide and Rock Dog are so quiet that I’m surprised they are playing in more than 2,000 theaters and I will be equally surprised if they open above the Mendoza Line by averaging more than $2,000 per theater. On the other hand, Get Out has nearly 100 reviews and its Tomatometer Score is 100% positive. It could be a surprise smash hit. Then again... It could be another Keanu. If that happens, The Lego Batman Movie will earn its third first-place finish in a row. That’s would be bad news for the overall box office. This weekend last year there were a similar selection of new releases. Gods of Egypt struggled while the other two new releases bombed, and only Deadpool saved the box office. If Get Out matches Deadpool’s total weekend of $31 million this time last year, I will be so happy. I don’t think it will happen, but it could be close. More...

2016 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Director

February 23, 2017

With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at Best Director. It is not a particularly competitive category with a favorite, a long shot with a shot, and then everyone else. More...

International Box Office: Grey Enters the Black with $276.2 million Worldwide

February 23, 2017

Fifty Shades Darker remained in first place on the international chart with $44.5 million on 9,600 screens in 59 markets for totals of $187.2 million internationally and $276.2 million worldwide. The film had no major openings this past weekend, and won’t until it opens in Japan in June. The film’s best market over the weekend was Germany, where it earned $6.1 million on 736 screens for a total of $21.2 million after two weeks of release.

More...

Contest: Be Prepared to Fight: Winning Announcement

February 23, 2017

The winners of our Be Prepared to Fight contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Fist Fight’s opening weekend were... More...

Theater Averages: Kitty Powers its Way to the Top with $11,418

February 23, 2017

Kedi remained in first place with an average of $11,418 in seven theaters. It is doing quite well for a documentary. The only other film in the $10,000 club was Chapter and Verse with $10,928 in its lone theater. More...

2016 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Adapted Screenplay

February 22, 2017

With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at the two Screenwriting Categories, finishing with Best Adapted Screenplay. This is a harder category to judge, because the consensus favorite, Moonlight, was considered an original screenplay by nearly everyone else. More...

2016 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Original Screenplay

February 22, 2017

With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at the two Screenwriting Categories, starting with Best Original Screenplay. At one time, La La Land looked to be the favorite, but that no longer seems to be the case. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: New Releases Can’t Scale the Great Wall of Batman

February 22, 2017

As expected, The Lego Batman Movie easily won the weekend box office race with $32.66 million over the weekend and $42.74 million including Monday. The biggest new release of the week was The Great Wall, which earned $18.47 million / $21.51 million during its opening weekend. Overall, the box office slumped by 21% from last weekend at $145 million. This is still 4.5% higher than the same weekend last year. Unfortunately, due to the misalignment in holidays, 2017 still lost ground over the full week. In fact, it is now a full $100 million behind 2016’s pace at $1.53 billion to $1.63 million. It is still too early to really tell where 2017 will end up, but we could really use some big wins right about now. More...

Unforgettable Trailer

February 21, 2017

Thriller starring Katherine Heigl and Rosario Dawson opens April 21, 2017 ... Full Movie Details. More...

Home Market Releases for February 21st, 2017

February 21, 2017

Did you know Oscars are being handed out next week? If you didn’t already know that, you would be able to figure that out, as there are five major Oscar nominees on this week’s list. Two of those, Jackie and Moana, are VOD releases, so that limits the choices for Pick of the Week. In fact, only Manchester by the Sea was a contender for Pick of the Week. Unfortunately for that film, I got to the review for Doctor Strange a week early and I’m awarding it the Pick of the Week this week. It is out on VOD right now, but I would wait a week for the Blu-ray Combo Pack. More...

Featured Blu-ray and DVD Review: Doctor Strange

February 20, 2017

Doctor Strange was the first time that magic was really strongly introduced into the Marvel Cinematic Universe and some thought the film was a bit of a risk as a result. Instead, the film became the second biggest introductory film in the MCU, behind only Guardians of the Galaxy. Is it as good as its box office numbers would suggest? Or has the MCU become self-sustaining generating hundreds of million of dollars regardless of quality? More...

2016 - Awards Season: WGA - Winners

February 19, 2017

The Writers Guild of America are the late major guild group to announce winners before the Oscars. We could see a small change in Oscar chances with a couple of winners tonight. More...

Weekend Estimates: Lego Batman Pieces Together Second Weekend Win

February 19, 2017

The Lego Batman Movie will secure another weekend at the top of the box office chart thanks to a modest 35% drop from its opening, and soft openings for all the new wide releases. The animated adventure will make $34.2 million over three days, and is expected to earn about $45 million when the President’s Day holiday numbers are added in. It will pass $100 million at the domestic box office tomorrow. More...

Friday Estimates: Batman Beats Up Competition with $7.6 million

February 18, 2017

It is a disappointing weekend for new releases, as only The Great Wall managed to match low expectations. This left The Lego Batman Movie cruising to first place on Friday with $7.6 million. It is on pace for $42 million over the four-day weekend and will crack $100 million sometime on Monday, which matches our predictions almost perfectly. If the film can make $150 million domestically and $200 million internationally, then it will break even before it reaches the home market. More...

Born in China Trailer

February 17, 2017

Nature documentary opens April 21, 2017 ... Full Movie Details. More...

Limited and VOD Releases: Everybody Loves Some Limited Releases

February 17, 2017

While there are not a lot of films on this week’s list, there is still a wide selection of limited releases. Most of these films are earning overall positive reviews, if not overwhelmingly positive reviews. Two of these films are aimed at Hispanics, Everybody Loves Somebody and You’re Killing Me Susana, and they could do well in theaters. More...

Theater Counts: Great Wall, Fist Fight Barely Challenge Lego Batman

February 17, 2017

The Lego Batman Movie will remain the dominant force in theaters this weekend, according to studio theater counts announced on Thursday. The Great Wall will debut in 3,326 locations, and Fist Fight opens in 3,185. Both are solid numbers, but nowhere near the 4,088 theaters occupied by last week’s winner at the box office. Fifty Shades Darker also remains a big player, with a 3,715 theater count this weekend. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Wall’s Start is Far from Great with just $970,000

February 17, 2017

The first numbers for the weekend are in and they are not looking good. The Great Wall earned just $970,000 during its midnight previews, which is significantly less than half of what John Wick: Chapter Two managed just last weekend. Granted, John Wick: Chapter Two was a sequel and those tend to get off to faster starts, while The Great Wall has a Holiday to help boost its legs. On the other hand, The Great Wall’s reviews are much, much worse. We were only predicting just under $19 million during the four-day weekend. We are keeping that for now, but we might have to adjust it lower tomorrow. More...

Contest: Straight Outta Suburbia

February 17, 2017

Surprisingly, there are three wide releases next week. I wasn’t expecting both Collide and Rock Dog to debut in more than 2,000 theaters, but that appears to be the case. That said, Get Out is widely expected to be the biggest of these three releases and as such, it is the only real choice for the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Get Out.

Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay! More...

2016 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Leading Actress

February 17, 2017

With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at Best Leading Actress, which is not competitive. There’s an overwhelming favorite, a long shot with a shot, and then everyone else. More...

2016 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Leading Actor

February 16, 2017

With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at Best Leading Actor, which is a three-way race this year. This makes it one of the most competitive categories we will be talking about. More...

Weekend Predictions: Can Wall be Great? Does Fist have any Fight?

February 16, 2017

There are three wide releases coming out this week, but none of them are expected to challenge for top spot. Although, there could be an interesting race between the two biggest releases, Fist Fight and The Great Wall. Sadly, this is because both have seen their box office potential fall over the past week. A Cure for Wellness never really had much box office potential. This will leave The Lego Batman Movie with an easy win over the Presidents’ Day long weekend, while we should have five films earning more than $10 million over the three-day portion of the weekend. This weekend last year, there were also three wide releases that struggled at the box office leaving Deadpool with an easy win. The Lego Batman Movie won’t match Deadpool at the top, but 2017 has much better depth, so that should help keep the year-over-year race close. More...

Going in Style Trailer

February 16, 2017

Heist comedy starring Morgan Freeman, Michael Caine, and Alan Arkin opens April 7, 2017 ... Full Movie Details. More...

International Box Office: Fifty Opens a Shade Below $100 million

February 16, 2017

Fifty Shades Darker earned first place on the international chart during it opening weekend, pulling in $97.78 million on 9,726 screens in 57 markets. This is the biggest international weekend of the year so far, so that’s reason for the studio to celebrate. The film’s biggest market was Germany, where it made $10.5 million, while the U.K. and Ireland were close behind with $9.4 million. The film cracked $5 million in France ($8.3 million); Brazil ($7.3 million); Italy ($6.9 million); Russian ($6.5 million); Australia ($5.8 million); and Spain ($5 million). The film has yet to open in Japan, but that’s the only major market left. By the end of the first weekend of release, the film had made enough worldwide to cover its entire production budget. By the end of the second, it will likely come completely in the black. By the time it makes its initial push into the home market, it will likely have paid for the production budget of Fifty Shades Freed as well.

More...

Contest: Batprizes: Winning Announcement

February 16, 2017

The winners of our Batprizes contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for The Lego Batman Movie’s opening weekend were... More...

Theater Averages: Kedi is the Cat’s Meow earning $40,103

February 15, 2017

Kedi became the first movie released in 2017 to hit the $40,000 mark on the per theater chart earning $40,103 in its lone theater. A United Kingdom was next with an average of $16,628 in four theaters. This is enough to suggest it will expand, but not enough to think it will earn a significant measure of mainstream success. The only other two films in the $10,000 club were the top two films on the overall weekend chart. The Lego Batman Movie earned an average of $12,966, putting it just ahead of Fifty Shades Darker, which earned an average of $12,563. More...

2016 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Supporting Actor

February 15, 2017

With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at Best Supporting Actor. Unlike a lot of other categories, this one could be a real race. We’ve had three previous awards ceremonies and three different winners, one of whom didn’t even get an Oscar nomination. I do have a personal favorite, but I fear my judgment is clouded as a result. More...

2016 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Supporting Actress

February 15, 2017

With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at the Supporting Roles categories, starting with Best Supporting Actress. In this category, we have one overwhelming favorite, a long shot with a shot, and then everyone else. More...

The Boss Baby Trailer

February 14, 2017

Animated adventures with the voices of Alec Baldwin, Steve Buscemi, Jimmy Kimmel, and Lisa Kudrow opens March 31, 2017 ... Full Movie Details. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Lego Batman Begins with $53.00 million

February 14, 2017

As expected, it was a big weekend at the box office with three massive hits. The Lego Batman Movie did earn first place, but not with as much as predicted at just $53.00 million. Fifty Shades Darker wasn’t that far behind with $46.61 million. Meanwhile, John Wick: Chapter Two just cracked $30 million, which is one of the ten best third place openings of all time. Week-over-week, the box office nearly doubled growing 90% from last weekend. Sadly, it was down 22% from last year. Granted, Valentine’s Day landed on a Sunday last year, so that boosted the weekend box office and 2017 should make some of that decline back on Tuesday. Year-to-date, 2017 has pulled in $1.28 billion, putting it $40 million or 3.0% behind 2016’s pace. It is still way too soon to tell how 2017 will finish in the end, but hopefully things will turn around soon. More...

Home Market Releases for February 14th, 2017

February 13, 2017

It is an interesting week with four top-notch releases. Unfortunately, two of those releases, Doctor Strange and Moonlight, are VOD only. This leaves just two contenders for Pick of the Week: Arrival and The Edge of Seventeen. Both are absolute must haves, but Arrival’s Blu-ray or 4K Ultra HD Combo Pack have far more extras and it is the Pick of the Week. More...

Ghost in the Shell Second Trailer

February 13, 2017

Sci-fi action movie starring Scarlett Johansson opens March 31, 2017 ... Full Movie Details. More...

Featured Blu-ray and DVD Review: The Edge of Seventeen

February 13, 2017

The Edge of Seventeen was one of those films that had light Awards Season buzz. Its reviews were 95% positive, but it only managed a couple of major nominations. Worse still for the studio, it bombed in theaters. Is this a film that deserved better during Awards Season? Does it at least deserve a bigger audience on the home market? More...

2016 - Awards Season: BAFTA - Winners - La La Lands on Top, Again

February 12, 2017

The BAFTA winners were announced on Sunday and there were very few surprises to talk about. La La Land again won the most awards with five, while only two other films, Lion and Manchester by the Sea, earned more than one award. They each won two. More...

Weekend Estimates: Batman Shades Fifty

February 12, 2017

A slighty-worse-than-expected performance from The Lego Batman Movie and a slightly-better-than-expected weekend for Fifty Shades Darker is creating a close race at the top of the box office chart this weekend. Lego Batman will win in the end, with Warner Bros. projecting $55.6 million for the weekend, but Fifty Shades Darker won on Friday, and won’t be far behind in the end. Universal pegs the film at $46.8 million over three days. More...

Friday Estimates: Fifty Leads Fantastic Friday with $21.5 million

February 11, 2017

Fifty Shades Darker led the way on Friday with $21.5 million. Earning first place is both expected and a little troubling, but more on the latter below. The film’s legs will be shorter over the weekend than its predecessor’s were, because it doesn’t have Valentine’s Day to boost its Saturday numbers. However, despite earning much worse reviews than the original film, its CinemaScore is a B plus, up from the C plus that the original managed. This could help its overall legs. Look for $48 million over the weekend and a total of over $100 million. More...

Thursday Night Previews: New Releases earn Fifty Shades of Green

February 10, 2017

Fifty Shades Darker dominated the Thursday previews earning $5.72 million. This is more than the other two new releases earned combined. On the other hand, it is significantly less than the $8.6 million the original made two years ago. Additionally, its reviews are significantly weaker than its predecessors’ reviews were. This will lead to shorter legs and an opening that is closer to $40 million than $50 million. More...

The Great Wall Trailer

February 10, 2017

Historical action adventure starring Matt Damon, directed by Zhang Yimou, opens February 17 ... Full Movie Details. More...

Limited and VOD Releases: United We Stand

February 10, 2017

It is a super short list this week, because the weather here is so bad it is negatively affecting my internet access. The power hasn’t gone out, at least not more than a mere flicker, but the internet has slowed to a crawl enough that I’m worried if I don’t get it done quickly, I won’t get a chance to do it at all. Of the movies on this week’s list, A United Kingdom is the one I’m most interested in seeing. More...

Contest: Be Prepared to Fight

February 10, 2017

Next week there are three wide releases: A Cure for Wellness, Fist Fight, and The Great Wall. A Cure for Wellness was never expected to compete for top spot, but The Great Wall was supposed to be a contender. That’s not going to happen. Its box office potential has tanked and it looks like Fist Fight will easily be the best of the week. As such, it is the only real choice for the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Fist Fight.

Note: It is a long weekend, but we only use the three-day, Friday through Sunday box office for this contest.

Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay! More...

2016 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Feature-Length Animated Film

February 10, 2017

2016 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Feature-Length Documentary

February 9, 2017

With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at Best Feature-Length Documentary. Like last year, this category has an overwhelming favorite, despite it not being a Feature-Length Documentary. More...

Theater Counts: Lego Batman Set for Widest-Ever February Opening

February 9, 2017

Releasing a film in 4,000 theaters isn’t a novelty any more. In fact, it’s happened 76 times before, including 14 times in 2016 alone, with Sing being the most recent film to do so. Releasing a film in 4,000 theaters in February, however, has never happened until this weekend, when The Lego Batman Movie will smash the previous record, held (surprisingly) by Jupiter Ascending, which opened in 3,885 theaters back in February, 2015. The Lego Movie opened in 3,775 locations on this weekend two years ago, and the extra 300 theaters bodes well for Lego Batman to top the first movie in the franchise’s $69 million debut weekend. With that kind of release happening, it’s perhaps a bit of a surprise that there are two other films opening in more than 3,000 venues. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Batman Become a Billionaire?

February 9, 2017

This should be the biggest weekend of the month with three potential hits, all of which are sequels. Of the three, The Lego Batman Movie is widely expected to be the biggest hit of the weekend. In fact, it is widely expected to become the biggest hit of the year so far. Fifty Shades Darker could be one of those rare sequels that earns less in total than the original made during its opening weekend. However, I’m not that pessimistic. On the other hand, John Wick: Chapter Two should open significantly better than its predecessor opened with, but it is still aiming to become a midlevel hit, nothing more. This weekend last year, Deadpool opened with $132 million. That could be more than the top two films open with this weekend. Even though 2017 does have better depth, I think it will lose in the year-over-year comparison. More...

The Circle Trailer

February 9, 2017

Tech thriller starring Emma Watson, Tom Hanks, and John Boyega, based on the book by Dave Eggers, opens April 28 ... Full Movie Details. More...

International Box Office: Yoga Stretches its International Total to $180 million

February 9, 2017

Kung Fu Yoga bombed in India, but that didn’t stop it from earning first place on the international chart with $51.4 million over the weekend for an international total of $180 million. Nearly all of this came from China, where it earned $50.2 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $179.71 million.

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Contest: Put a Ring On It: Winning Announcement

February 8, 2017

The winners of our Put a Ring On It contest contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Rings’s opening weekend were... More...

Theater Averages: Chapter & Verse won’t be Filing Chapter 13 with a $32,713 opening

February 8, 2017

It was a busy weekend on top of the theater average chart, at least for this time of year, with three films earning averages over more than $10,000. Chapter and Verse led the way with $32,713 in its lone theater. I Am Not Your Negro had an arguably better start earning an average $15,962 while playing in 43 theaters. That’s amazing for a documentary. Another documentary, Mr. Gaga, was the final film in the $10,000 club with an average of $12,677 in two theaters over the weekend and an average of $17,316 from Wednesday through Sunday. The Lure didn’t get to $10,000 over the weekend pulling in $7,370 over that time, but it earned $10,676 from Wednesday through Sunday. More...

Our 20th Annual Predict the Academy Awards Contest

February 7, 2017

Today we’re launching The Numbers 20th Annual Predict the Academy Awards Competition. This is our traditional chance for you to win some great prizes, and for all of our readers collectively to predict who will win the Oscars on February 26. The top selection for Best Picture in our contest has gone on to win the Best Picture Oscar 14 times in the previous 19 years we’ve run the contest, and we’ve correctly predicted the Best Animated Feature 12 times out of 15. That represents a batting average of about 75%—an amazing performance when you consider that there are now nine or ten nominees for Best Picture each year.

So enter now for your best chance of winning our grand prize: every film nominated for Best Picture on DVD or Blu-ray. We will send you all nine films that are nominated as soon as they become available on the home market, and you get to choose either the DVD or Blu-ray version. Our runner-up will win the Best Picture and Best Animated Feature on DVD or Blu-ray. And, for our long-term players, the best performer from among our all-time top 200 players will win the Best Picture on DVD or Blu-ray. 19th Annual Predict the Academy Awards Competition, our traditional chance for you to win some great prizes, and for all of our readers collectively to predict who will win the Oscars on February 28. The top selection for Best Picture in our contest has gone on to win the Best Picture Oscar 14 times in the previous 18 years we’ve run the contest, and we've correctly predicted the Best Animated Feature 11 times out of 14. That represents a batting average of close to 80%—an amazing performance when you consider that there are now nine or ten nominees for Best Picture each year.

So enter now for your best chance of winning our grand prize: every film nominated for Best Picture on DVD or Blu-ray. We will send you all eight films that are nominated as soon as they become available on the home market, and you get to choose either the DVD or Blu-ray version. Our runner-up will win the Best Picture and Best Animated Feature on DVD or Blu-ray. And, for our long-term players, the best performer from among our all-time top 200 players will win the Best Picture on DVD or Blu-ray.

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Rock Dog Trailer

February 7, 2017

Animated adventure opens February 24 ... Full Movie Details. More...

Home Market Releases for February 07th, 2017

February 7, 2017

The winter releases are starting to come out on the home market. Trolls is the biggest such release, but it isn’t the best. It isn’t bad either, but it’s for kids and not adult fans of animation. As for the best, there are a quartet of contenders for Pick of the Week; Loving, The Eagle Huntress, Little Sister, and Two Lovers and a Bear. All four are must haves, while Loving’s Blu-ray Combo Pack is the Pick of the Week. Meanwhile, Two Lovers and a Bear’s DVD is the Puck of the Week for Best Canadian Release. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Split Scores Another Touchdown with $14.42 million

February 7, 2017

As expected, Split earned first place over the weekend with $14.42 million. That’s not bad for Super Bowl weekend. In fact, the overall depth was better than expected, not that you could tell from the week-over-week decline. The overall box office fell 31% to just $98 million. However, this was still 2.5% better than the same weekend last year. That’s a surprise victory. Granted, 2017 is still behind 2016 by 5.1% at $1.06 billion to $1.12 billion, but every little victory helps. More...

Featured DVD Review: Sabrina Down Under

February 5, 2017

I put in a request for Star Trek: Deep Space Nine The Complete Series, but Sabrina Down Under arrived instead. This TV movie is the second such movie from Sabrina the Teenage Witch, the first being Sabrina Goes to Rome. Will it please fans of the show? Does it have a grander scale than the average episode? More...

2016 - Awards Season: DGA - Winners

February 5, 2017

The last of the Directors Guild of America awards were handed out over the weekend in what was likely a warm venue. On the other hand, I’m dealing with a snow storm that hasn’t really stopped in three days and power outages. Joy. Fortunately, there’s not much to talk about. All three theatrical categories went as expected with La La Land winning yet again. More...

Weekend Estimates: Split Wins Third Weekend

February 5, 2017

Rings managed to win on Friday, but the weekend as a whole will belong to Split, which is expected to top the chart with $14.6 million, according to Universal’s Sunday morning projection. Rings will finish second with $13 million or so, and A Dog’s Purpose will win Sunday (making this a rare weekend where three different films will top the daily chart) to finish the weekend with $10.8 million, and $32.9 million to date. More...

Friday Estimates: Rings Wins Friday with $5.2 million, Split will Repeat over Weekend

February 4, 2017

It will be a close race this weekend with Rings topping the chart on Friday with $5.6 million, putting it just ahead of Split … for now. Its word-of-mouth is terrible. It did get its first positive review, but its Tomatometer Score is just 6% positive, while it earned a C minus from CinemaScore. On the positive side, overall this is actually better than predicted, and it looks like it will earn close to $14 million, instead of just under $13 million. More...

Limited and VOD Releases: Will Journey Travel a Long Distance?

February 3, 2017

A few films on this week’s list could be called the biggest limited release of the week. The Comedian is the biggest in terms of star power. Journey to the West 2 is the biggest in terms of worldwide box office. I Am Not Your Negro is the biggest in terms of Awards Season success. Journey to the West 2 should have the biggest opening, but I’m not sure if it will earn mainstream success. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Rings has a Hollow Start with $800,000

February 3, 2017

Rings had the best start in previews last night, but here “best” is a relative term. It only managed $800,000, 20% lower than Resident Evil: The Final Chapter previews last weekend. Worse still, its reviews are 0% positive with 17 reviews on Rotten Tomatoes so far. This could result in an opening weekend of less than $10 million, but I think that’s a little pessimistic. $11 million is more likely. That’s not a good start, even for a film that cost $33 million to make, and it will need help internationally to break even. More...

Transformers: The Last Knight Big Game Spot

February 3, 2017

Sci-fi actioner directed by Michael Bay opens June 23 ... Full Movie Details. More...

Contest: Batprizes - Update

February 2, 2017

Before we get to the contest, I miss the goofy bat-gadgets the movies used to have. Bat Shark Repellent might be my favorite. Next weekend is Valentine’s Day and Presidents’ Day and there are three wide releases hoping to make the most of the long weekend. However, it’s clear that The Lego Batman Movie will come out on top and it is the only real choice for the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The Lego Batman Movie.

Note: It is a not long weekend next weekend, as President's Day isn't until the 20th. In my defense, I'm Canadian, so I don't pay attention to these things.

Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay! More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Split Be Separated from the Top Spot?

February 2, 2017

The new releases this week are not strong, so we could see Split remain on top for the third weekend in a row. Rings should at least be in a fight for first place, if it just does as well as Resident Evil: The Final Chapter did last weekend. On the other hand, The Space Between Us is being eviscerated by the critics and it really needed good word of mouth to thrive. If it opens in the top five, I will be impressed. This weekend last year, Hail, Caesar! was the number one new release and it earned just $11.36 million. Rings should top that. Unfortunately, the number one film was Kung Fu Panda 3, which earned more than than $20 million. There’s no way Split will match that, so 2017 is going to lose in the year-over-year competition. More...

Theater Counts: Rings and The Space Between Us Both Open in Less Than 3,000 Theaters

February 2, 2017

Screen availability is tight at multiplexes right now, with plenty of Oscar-nominated films looking to take advantage of the last few weeks before the awards. So it’s a challenging time to be releasing more mainstream fare, but, even so, it’s fairly surprising to see Rings and The Space Between Us debut in less than 3,000 theaters this weekend. More...

Ghost in the Shell Big Game Spot

February 2, 2017

Sci-fi actioner starring Scarlett Johansson opens March 31 ... Full Movie Details. More...

International Box Office: Journey Begins with One Step... and $86 million

February 1, 2017

International movies dominated the international top five with international films earning the top three spots. This includes Journey to the West 2, which earned first place with $86 million in seven markets. It dominated China with $84.09 million during its opening weekend, including a record opening day for a Chinese film, $52.3 million. The original film made just over $200 million worldwide, so this is a great start, but its mixed reviews are miles behind the original’s reviews, so that will likely hurt its legs. More...

Contest: Prizes, Evil Prizes: Winning Announcement

February 1, 2017

The winners of our Prizes, Evil Prizes contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Resident Evil: The Final Chapter’s opening weekend were... More...

2017 Preview: February

February 1, 2017

January turned out to be a good month. Granted, it didn’t live up to last January, but its box office was one of the top five Januarys of all time, so that’s still a good start to the year. Also, we will have our first $100 million movie released in 2017 and that doesn’t happen this early very often. As for February, there’s potentially the first $200 million hit of the year, The Lego Batman Movie. Fifty Shades Darker and The Great Wall both have a shot at $100 million. That said, it is more likely that both will miss that milestone than both will get there. As for the rest of the films, there are a few that are aiming for solid midlevel hits, like John Wick: Chapter Two and Get Out, while there are very few potential bombs. By comparison, last February there was one monster hit, Deadpool, and a lot of bombs. No other movie besides Deadpool made $50 million. No movie opening this month will match Deadpool, but we won’t have as many bombs either, so hopefully that will balance out and 2017 won’t fall further behind 2016. More...

The Numbers News - February 2017

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