The Numbers News - July 2017
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Close Encounters of the Third Kind Trailer
July 31, 2017
Steven Spielberg’s sci-fi classic starring Richard Dreyfuss returns to theaters on September 1 ... Full Movie Details.
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Weekend Estimates: Dunkirk Gives Emojis a Sad Face
July 30, 2017
A solid second weekend will be enough to keep Dunkirk at the top of the box office chart this weekend, as The Emoji Movie falls short of a par performance for a family-friendly animated film. Christopher Nolan’s war movie will fall 44% from it opening—a decent figure these days—to earn $28.1 million this time around, according to Warner Bros.’ projection released on Sunday morning. That will take it past $100 million domestically today, puts it on course for around $200 million domestically in total.
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Friday Estimates: Emoji Earns $10.05 million in Emotional Start
July 29, 2017
The weekend got off to a strange start with The Emoji Movie earning first place on Friday with $10.05 million. That’s the good news. The bad news is in the future. Not only is the film’s Tomatometer Score just 6% positive, not only are the critics aggressive in their negative reviews, but the film only managed a B from CinemaScore. Family films rarely earn less than a A minus from CinemaScore, so this will be devastating for its legs. That said, a $10.05 million start is still impressive and a second place, $28 million debut is enough that it will break even early in its home market run.
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It Trailer
July 28, 2017
Horror movie starring Bill Skarsgård opens September 8 ... Full Movie Details.
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Limited and VOD Releases: Rock City
July 28, 2017
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There are a lot of great movies on this week’s list, including Women Who Kill, Rumble: The Indians who Rocked the World, Menashe, Brigsby Bear, and Detroit. That last film is opening in limited release, but it deserves box office success, so hopefully this won’t hurt. An Inconvenient Sequel isn’t quite great, but it is good enough to be worth seeing.
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Thursday Night Previews: Atomic Nukes the Competition with $1.52 million
July 28, 2017
Atomic Blonde easily topped The Emoji Movie during previews, earning $1.52 million. However, had the action flick not topped the family film, it would have been a disaster. Compared to other recent action films, Atomic Blonde underperformed Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets ($1.7 million) and Baby Driver ($2.1 million), but at least it topped King Arthur: Legend of the Sword ($1.15 million). This summer, the average action film has opened with just over 10 times what it made during its previews, which is bad news for Atomic Blonde, as it puts the film’s opening weekend at $15 million to $16 million. Its reviews are good, but not great enough to really change this trend. Even $20 million would be a boon after this start.
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Contest: Dark Days
July 28, 2017
Next weekend is the first weekend of August, which is a traditional dumping ground for films that looked like they were a good idea when they were greenlit, but something went horribly wrong. This leads to a lot of films that may or may not open truly wide. For instance, Kidnap is opening in an estimated 2,200 theaters, and Detroit is opening in limited release this Friday, and doesn’t have a firm expansion estimate yet. The reviews for Detroit are amazing, so it should expand significantly, but we don’t know by how much, yet. This does leave The Dark Tower as the only real choice for the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening three-day weekend box office number for The Dark Tower.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprise consisting of their choice of either one TV on DVD release, two movies, or a kids package (could be a theatrical release, a couple of single-disc TV on DVD releases, or a full season TV on DVD release). Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, as described above. Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven’t won, or haven’t won recently, and they will win the final Frankenprize, as described above.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don’t delay!
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Theater Counts: The Emoji Movie Launches in an Ambitious 4,075 Theaters
July 27, 2017
The Emoji Movie gets its day in the sun this weekend, and will have an impressive 4,075 theaters to play in, according to Sony’s announcement today. That’s up there with the likes of The Lego Batman Movie (4,088), Trolls (4,060), and Sing (4,022). Those films made between $35 million and $55 million on opening weekend. If this film does anything in that range, Sony will be happy.
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Weekend Predictions: Atomic Blonde and The Emoji Movie Take On Dunkirk
July 27, 2017
The final weekend of July has two wide releases, Atomic Blonde and The Emoji Movie. Neither are expected to be monster hits, but both could be profitable at the box office. Atomic Blonde’s reviews are excellent and its connections to the John Wick movies could get people into theaters. The Emoji Movie still has no reviews and its buzz is incredibly negative. I haven’t seen buzz this negative since Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul. This does give Dunkirk a real shot at repeating on top of the chart. This weekend last year, Jason Bourne opened with nearly $60 million, which will likely be more than both new releases this year earn. Even if Dunkirk has better legs than expected, there’s little hope 2017 will win in the year-over-year comparison.
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Suburbicon Trailer
July 27, 2017
Black comedy starring Matt Damon and Julianne Moore, directed by George Clooney, written by Joel and Ethan Coen, opens October 27 ... Full Movie Details.
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International Box Office: Despicable Me Steals Crown from Spider-Man with $72.7 million
July 27, 2017
Dunkirk debuted in first place on the international chart with $55.4 million in 46 markets for a worldwide debut of $105.9 million. Its biggest opening was in the U.K., no surprise there, where it earned $13.00 million in 638 theaters. Strangely, South Korea wasn’t far behind with $8.75 million on 1,245 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $10.40 million. On the other hand, the film struggled somewhat in France with $4.9 million. This isn’t a bad opening, but I was expecting more. Overall, it is doing about as well as Christopher Nolan’s previous film, Interstellar. If Dunkirk can merely match that movie's worldwide figure, then it will break even before it reaches the home market. Even if it doesn’t quite manage that total, anything above $500 million worldwide will produce a healthy profit for the studio.
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Contest: Stick Together: Winning Announcement
July 27, 2017
The winners of our Stick Together contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Dunkirk’s opening weekend were...
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New at The Numbers: This Day in Movie History
July 26, 2017
Here at The Numbers, we strive to improve your reading experience by adding more features we believe you will find interesting. Today, we are introducing On this Day, a page that shows events on each date in movie history. You can reach it by clicking on dates on many pages across the site, and also via the News pull-down menu at the top of each page. Unfortunately today, July 26th, is kind of a boring day at the box office, as July 26th has only landed on a Friday twice in the past two decades. So let’s look at another day chosen entirely at random, August 19th. The date is obviously important to history, but let’s look at the day in terms of box office numbers.
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Wind River Trailer
July 26, 2017
Thriller starring Jeremy Renner and Elizabeth Olsen, directed by Taylor Sheridan opens August 4 ... Full Movie Details.
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Theater Averages: Dunkirk Lands On Top with $13,579
July 26, 2017
The number one film on the overall weekend box office chart, Dunkirk, was also the number one film on the theater average chart earning an average of $13,579. The best limited release was Landline with an average of $13,139 in four theaters. Its reviews suggest it won’t maintain that average as it tries to expand. The final film in the $10,000 club was Girls Trip, which earned an average of $12,042. The film could have earned half that and it still would have been an okay opening for its production budget.
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Home Market Releases for July 25th, 2017
July 26, 2017
The Boss Baby is the biggest release of the week, while Ghost in the Shell is a distant second place. Neither of those films are terrible, but neither are remotely good enough to be a Pick of the Week contender. Gifted was in contention, but in the end, I went with the Criterion Collection release for Lost in America.
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Justice League Trailer
July 25, 2017
Super hero action movie starring Ben Affleck, Gal Gadot, Jason Momoa, Ezra Miller, and Ray Fisher opens November 17 ... Full Movie Details.
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Weekend Wrap-Up: Dunkirk has Stellar $50.51 million Opening
July 25, 2017
Both Dunkirk and Girls Trip topped expectations earning $50.51 million and $31.20 million respectively. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets didn’t do as well, but it should do well internationally. Overall, the weekend box office rose 11% from last weekend earning $181 million. On the downside, this was 7.8% lower than the same weekend last year and 2017 had already lost its lead over 2016, so this is really bad news. Year-to-date, 2017 is now behind 2016 by $31 million / 0.5% at $6.46 billion to $6.49 billion. Things really need to turn around soon, but I don’t think that’s going to happen. Hopefully the fall will be much better.
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Thor: Ragnarok Trailer
July 24, 2017
Super hero adventure starring Chris Hemsworth, Tom Hiddleston, and Cate Blanchett opens November 3 ... Full Movie Details.
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Featured VOD Review: Gifted
July 24, 2017
At the time of writing this review, Gifted is the biggest limited release hit of the year. (By the time you read the review, it will likely have fallen to second place behind The Big Sick.) On the other hand, its Tomatometer Score was merely good and not great. Did it just get lucky? Or does it deserve its box office success.
Weekend Estimates: Dunkirk, Girls Trip Post Impressive Debuts
July 23, 2017
Dunkirk will easily top the chart at the box office this weekend, with a $50.5 million opening weekend from 3,720 theaters that’s broadly in line with expectations, and also remarkably similar to the first weekend for Interstellar, which opened with $47.5 million from 3,561 theaters back in 2014. It seems that the film has reached the Christopher Nolan fan base, but not extended much beyond that. Remarkably, Pearl Harbor remains the record holder for biggest opening weekend for a World War II movie, with the $59 million it earned back in 2001 (equivalent to roughly $93 million with today’s ticket prices).
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Friday Estimates: Dunkirk Dunks on the Competition with $19.8 million
July 22, 2017
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Dunkirk dominated the Friday box office chart. Okay, maybe dominate is too strong a word, but more on that down below. The film earned a better than anticipated opening day of $19.8 million. Additionally, its reviews are award-worthy, while it earned an A minus from CinemaScore. Frankly, given its reviews, I’m surprised it only got an A minus. With its $5.5 million in previews, I was expecting an opening day a little north of $20 million, so hopefully this isn’t a sign of short legs. Look for an opening weekend of $55 million. On a side note, the reason we are not using Dunkirk images is we only got two of them and we’ve already used them both, twice. I tried to find the French site to see if they had more images (This is what I did for Kong: Skull Island.) but I ended up on the Dunkirk tourist site by accident and now all of the ads I see on YouTube are in French.
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Thursday Night Previews: Dunkirk and Girls Trip Make Promising Starts
July 21, 2017
I was expecting Dunkirk to make about $4 million during previews and it made $5.5 million. Since its reviews are award-worthy and the film is aimed at a more mature target audience, it should have better legs than most similar films. Perhaps $60 million is more likely than I thought.
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Kingsman: The Golden Circle Trailer
July 21, 2017
Action movie starring Taron Egerton, Colin Firth, Julianne Moore, Mark Strong, Halle Berry, Channing Tatum, and Jeff Bridges, directed by Matthew Vaughn opens September 22 ... Full Movie Details.
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Limited and VOD Releases: Sticking the Landing
July 21, 2017
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Looking at this week’s list of limited releases, it is hard to come up with any film that has a real shot at box office success. Landline has the loudest buzz, but its reviews are merely good. All of the rest of the films are either foreign-language films or are playing on VOD and both of those factors will limit their box office chances.
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Contest: Going Nuclear
July 20, 2017
Next weekend could be one of the closest races we’ve seen all year. I can almost guarantee Atomic Blonde will have better previews and will top the chart on Friday; however, The Emoji Movie is just as likely to win on Saturday and that could be enough to win overall. It is literally a coin toss to pick the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest and Atomic Blonde won that toss. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening three-day weekend box office number for Atomic Blonde.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Girls: Season Six on Blu-ray. Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a Frankenprise consisting of one TV on DVD release. Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven’t won, or haven’t won recently, and they will also win a Frankenprize, as described above.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don’t delay!
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Theater Counts: Dunkirk Lands in 3,720 Theaters
July 20, 2017
Christopher Nolan’s Dunkirk will roll out in 3,720 theaters, according to Warner Bros.’ announcement this afternoon. That might not seem much, given that it breaks a record streak of seven consecutive weeks with a move opening in over 4,000 theaters, but it’s by far the widest opening for a war movie ever. Pearl Harbor has, remarkably, held that title for 16 years, thanks to its launch in 3,214 theaters over Memorial Day weekend in 2001. (If you’re curious (and I was), Saving Private Ryan opened in 2,453 theaters in 1998, and peaked in 2,807 locations—the 1990s were basically a different eon in cinema history at this point.)
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The Lego Ninjago Movie Trailer
July 20, 2017
Animated adventure opens September 22 ... Full Movie Details.
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Weekend Predictions: Take a Trip with Valerian and Laureline to Dunkirk
July 20, 2017
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So far this summer, box office is running about $200 million behind last year’s pace. The numbers have fallen so far that, year to date, 2017 is now behind 2016’s box office pace. This is even more depressing as last weekend, five of the top six films earned Tomatometer Scores that were over 90% positive. This week, we are continuing the amazing run with critics as two of the three wide releases are earning 90% positive reviews or better, but it doesn’t look like we will be able to improve our box office woes. This weekend last year, Star Trek Beyond opened with nearly $60 million and four other films earned more than $20 million. This weekend, Dunkirk will open in first place and it might top Star Trek Beyond, but that seems unlikely. Even getting to $50 million could be asking too much. Girls Trip should have a box office run somewhere between Rough Night and Bad Moms. ... Yes, I know that’s a lot of wiggle room, but there’s a lot of uncertainty here. Finally there’s Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets, which cost $180 million to make but is earning almost no buzz here. (It should do a lot better internationally.) We would have to have all three new releases beat expectations and have solid holdovers for 2017 to come out ahead in the year-over-year comparison.
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International Box Office: Despicable Me Steals Crown from Spider-Man with $72.7 million
July 19, 2017
I thought last week was close, but this week was even closer. In fact, according to Sunday’s estimates, Spider-Man: Homecoming was the top film on the international chart, but Monday’s final numbers had Despicable Me 3 in first place. That film earned $72.7 million in 61 markets for totals of $434.00 million internationally and $622.39 million worldwide. Its biggest opening came in Indonesia, where it earned $3.5 million on 230 screens. Meanwhile, the film is now the second biggest animated film at the Chinese box office. This past weekend, Despicable Me 3 earned $22.09 million on 8,057 screens for a two-week total of $115.16 million. The film opens in Japan and South Korea before the end of the month, as well as Italy and a few other smaller markets by the end of August.
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Happy Death Day Trailer
July 19, 2017
Horror movie starring Jessica Rothe, written and directed by Christopher Landon opens October 13 ... Full Movie Details.
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Contest: Win the War: Winning Announcement
July 19, 2017
The winners of our Win the War contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for War for the Planet of the Apes’s opening weekend were...
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Theater Averages: Apes Overtake MacBeth $13,989 to $12,907
July 18, 2017
War for the Planet of the Apes earned first place on the weekend box office chart and the theater average chart with $13,989. The only other new release to come close to that was Lady Macbeth with an average of $12,907 in five theaters. Last week’s winner, Spider-Man: Homecoming, slipped to third place this weekend with an average of $10,167. It is still quite rare for a wide release to stay in the $10,000 club two weeks in a row, so this is a reason to celebrate.
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Home Market Releases for July 18th, 2017
July 18, 2017
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Last week, The Fate of the Furious scared away all of the competition. This week, the competition is still scared, as there’s very little in the way of top notch releases. Kong: Skull Island is by far the biggest new release of the week, while the next two biggest are The Promise and Free Fire. As for the best releases of the week, The Expanse: Season Two is a contender, but ultimately the Pick of the Week goes to the Stalker Criterion Collection Blu-ray.
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Blade Runner 2049 Trailer
July 18, 2017
Sci-fi action movie starring Ryan Gosling and Harrison Ford, directed by Denis Villeneuve opens October 6 ... Full Movie Details.
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Weekend Wrap-Up: War Goes Well for Apes Earning $56.26 million
July 18, 2017
The weekend box office chart didn’t hold a lot of surprises. War for the Planet of the Apes earned first place with a slightly better than predicted result of $56.26 million, while most of the rest of our predictions were also close enough to be considered victories. Overall, the box office plummeted 21% from last weekend reaching $163 million. This was also a little lower than the same weekend last year. The emphasis is on “little”, as it only dropped by 0.062% or about $100,000. On its own, this would be nothing to worry about. However, 2017’s lead over 2016 has completely evaporated and the year is now 0.19% or $12 million behind last year’s pace at $6.21 billion to $6.22 billion. We’ve lost about $200 million this summer compared to last year and I don’t see that turning around any time soon.
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A Wrinkle in Time Trailer
July 17, 2017
Fantasy adventure starring Storm Reid, Oprah Winfrey, Reese Witherspoon, and Mindy Kaling directed by Ava Duvernay opens March 9, 2018 ... Full Movie Details.
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Featured Blu-ray and DVD Review: Free Fire
July 16, 2017
Free Fire opened in theaters in April. It wasn’t expected to be a major hit, or even a midlevel hit, but almost no one expected it to bomb as badly as it did. It didn’t just open below the Mendoza Line, had it opened with as much as it made in total, it still would have been below the Mendoza Line. Is it really as bad as its box office numbers would indicate? Or is it a hidden gem?
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Weekend Estimates: Apes Top Chart, Helped by Big Spider-Man Drop
July 16, 2017
A weekend estimate just ahead of our prediction for War for the Planet of the Apes, and a one just below our prediction for Spider-Man: Homecoming means there’s a clear winner at the box office. War will come in with $56.5 million, per Fox’s Sunday morning estimate, while Homecoming will finish second with $45.2 million.
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Friday Estimates: Apes Win War with $22.1 million on Friday
July 15, 2017
As expected, War for the Planet of the Apes earned first place on Friday. To match predictions, the film needed to make between $18 million and $19 million, but instead it earned $22.1 million during its first day of release. Furthermore, this is better than its previews were, so this suggests good word-of-mouth and longer than average legs. Its reviews are 94% positive and it earned a solid A from CinemaScore, so long legs wouldn’t be a shock. Perhaps it can reach $60 million over the weekend. Anything less than $55 million will be a little disappointing. Splitting the difference gets us a weekend target of $57 million.
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Thursday Night Previews: Apes Battle for $5 million Debut
July 14, 2017
War for the Planet of the Apes started its box office run with $5 million in Thursday previews, which is a little lower than expected, but not tragically so. For example, Alien: Covenant earned $4.2 million during its previews on its was to a $36.16 million weekend. If War for the Planet of the Apes has the same legs, it would make $43 million this weekend. On the other hand, The Mummy earned $2.66 million pulling in $31.67 million during its opening weekend. If War for the Planet has the same legs as that film, it would earn just shy of $60 million during its opening weekend. War has much better reviews than either of those films, to it could have better legs than either of those films. That said, it is also the third installment in the reboot franchise and that tends to shrink legs. The average is just over $50 million, which sounds about right.
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Home Again Trailer
July 14, 2017
Romantic comedy starring Reese Witherspoon, written and directed by Hallie Meyers-Shyer opens September 8 ... Full Movie Details.
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Limited and VOD Releases: Endless Choices
July 14, 2017
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There’s not a wide selection of films coming out in limited release this week, but there are number of them that are worth checking out. This includes To The Bone, which is playing on Netflix right now. Endless Poetry is about the early life of Alejandro Jodorowsky and fans of his movies should be very interested. Lady Macbeth is a costume drama and that’s a genre that tends to do well in limited release. Finally there’s Swallows and Amazons, a family film that will likely do much better on Video on Demand than in theaters.
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Contest: Stick Together
July 13, 2017
Next weekend, there are three wide releases. Originally, I thought Dunkirk would walk away with the weekend, but I’ve heard rumblings that the film isn’t going to live up to expectations, either at the box office or with critics. It is still likely going to be the biggest new release of the week, but Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets at least has a shot at the upset. Dunkirk is still the best choice for the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening three-day weekend box office number for Dunkirk.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprise consisting of their choice of either one TV on DVD release, two movies, or a kids package (could be a theatrical release, a couple of single-disc TV on DVD releases, or a full season TV on DVD release). Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, as described above. Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven’t won, or haven’t won recently, and they will win the final Frankenprize, as described above.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don’t delay!
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Weekend Predictions: Will Apes vs. Spider be a One-Sided Fight?
July 13, 2017
War for the Planet of the Apes is going to be the biggest of the three wide releases coming out this week. This much is a near certainty. However, there is some doubt if it will open in first place, or if Spider-Man: Homecoming will remain the top draw over the weekend. The only other wide release of the week is Wish Upon, a low-budget horror film, if it can just reach the top five, then the studio will be very happy. Finally, The Big Sick is expanding wide. Given its limited release run so far, it should become a sleeper hit over the summer. This weekend last year, The Secret Life of Pets and Ghostbusters had a one-two punch of nearly $100 million. I think War for the Planet of the Apes and Spider-Man: Homecoming will top that figure, while the overall depth should help 2017 win in the year-over-year competition, but it will likely be close.
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Theater Counts (Updated): Planet of the Apes Sets Out in 4,022 Theaters
July 13, 2017
For proof that we’re living in the age of blockbusters, look no further than the fact that the industry’s streak of opening a movie in over 4,000 theaters will extend into its seventh weekend, with War for the Planet of the Apes set to debut in 4,022 locations. That’s technically the closest we’ve come to missing the 4,000-theater mark during the streak, but is basically in line with The Mummy’s 4,035-theater start. Fox will be hoping for a considerably better debut (The Mummy opened with just $31 million), and can take comfort in the fact that Wonder Woman made $103 million from just a few more theaters (4,165 to be precise) a little over a month ago. Tracking is looking good for the ape movie, and it has enough theaters to top the chart, even if Spider-Man: Homecoming has a good second weekend.
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Dunkirk Final Trailer
July 13, 2017
Real-life drama starring Fionn Whitehead, written and directed by Christopher Nolan opens July 21 ... Full Movie Details.
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International Box Office: Spider-Man Snags First Place in Tight Race with $140.03 million
July 13, 2017
Spider-Man: Homecoming earned first place in one of the closest races I’ve seen. It pulled in $140.03 million on 24,287 screens in 71 markets for a worldwide opening of $257.06 million. Its biggest market was South Korea, where it earned $19.37 million on 1,965 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $25.94 million. It also cracked $10 million in both the U.K. ($12.11 million in 616 theaters) and Mexico ($11.72 million on 3,506 screens), while it came close to that mark in Brazil with $9.09 million on 1,302 screens. The film did amazing business in Asia, including earning $6.84 million on 1,092 screens in Indonesia and $6.46 million on 1,900 screens in India. The film has yet to open in a number of major markets, including France, Germany, China, and Japan and should top $800 million worldwide with ease before it is done, which is enough to break even before it reaches the home market. The real challenge is surpassing Wonder Woman and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 for top spot on the worldwide chart for the summer. It is too soon to tell if it will get there for sure, but this is a great start.
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Contest: Bring Home a Prize: Winning Announcement
July 12, 2017
The winners of our Bring Home a Prize contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Spider-Man: Homecoming’s opening weekend were...
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Brigsby Bear Trailer
July 12, 2017
Drama written by and starring Kyle Mooney opens July 28 ... Full Movie Details.
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Theater Averages: Spider-Man has Storybook $26,915 Opening
July 11, 2017
There was a really close race on the theater chart this week with Spider-Man: Homecoming topping A Ghost Story $26,915 to $26,008. The only other film to top $10,000 was The Big Sick, which earned an average of $10,971 in 326 theaters.
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Home Market Releases for July 11th, 2017
July 11, 2017
This week, the home market is led by The Fate of the Furious, which is the number one film both in terms of worldwide box office and alphabetically. It earned well over $1 billion worldwide, but it is losing the charm the franchise thrived on during the past few installments. As for the Pick of the Week, I’m going with Underground, Season Two, or the Two-Season box set.
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The Greatest Showman Trailer
July 11, 2017
Drama starring Hugh Jackman, Zac Efron, Rebecca Ferguson, and Michelle Williams opens December 25 ... Full Movie Details.
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Weekend Wrap-Up: Spider-Man has Wondrous $117.03 million Opening
July 11, 2017
The weekend box office chart held few surprises. Every film in the top five was close to our predictions, while the top two films were a little stronger. This includes Spider-Man: Homecoming, which pulled in $117.03 million during its opening weekend, making it the second fastest debut of the summer. (Only Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 is ahead of it in that regard.) Despicable Me 3 held on better than most films this summer and will become a monster hit thanks to its international numbers. Overall, the box office rose by 22% from last weekend hitting $206 million. Unfortunately, this is still 5.1% lower than the same weekend last year. Before the summer began, 2017 had a $200 million lead over 2006. That lead is now down to just $13 million at $5.95 billion to $5.94 billion. This lead could be completely gone by the weekend.
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Patti Cake$ Trailer
July 10, 2017
Drama starring Danielle Macdonald opens August 18 ... Full Movie Details.
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Featured Blu-ray and DVD Review: Smurfs: The Lost Village
July 9, 2017
Smurfs: The Lost Village is the third theatrical release in the franchise, but it is a reboot dropping the live action elements the first two films had. Unfortunately, it had the worst box office performance in the franchise and even though it did better internationally, there likely won’t be another film in the franchise for quite a while. Is this unfortunate news? Did the franchise finally find its footing? Or was it clear it was never going to get better?
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Weekend Estimates: Spider-Man Comes Home to $117 Million Weekend
July 9, 2017
A $117 million opening weekend is pretty much all Sony could ask for from Spider-Man: Homecoming. It’s the second-best debut for the Spider-Man franchise, if you ignore the effects of inflation, and makes it almost certain that the franchise will break its unfortunate streak of earning less at the domestic box office with every new outing. With, reportedly, a more constrained budget—this is the least expensive Spider-Man film, adjusted for inflation—profitability looks assured, and Sony’s partnership with Disney looks as though it’s paying off.
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Friday Estimates: Spider-Man has $50.5 million Reasons to Celebrate its Homecoming
July 8, 2017
Spider-Man: Homecoming dominated the box office on Friday and in a pleasant surprise, it beat predictions with $50.5 million during its opening day. Its opening day vs. its previews is almost identical to Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2, which would put the film on pace for $130 million over the weekend. Spider-Man: Homecoming did earn better reviews, while both movies earned a solid A from CinemaScore, and many more kids have no school on Monday compared to when Guardians debuted. All of this should help its legs. On the other hand, Homecoming could have a bigger Fanboy Effect, as Spider-Man is a much more established character. Because of that, I’m going to be a little more cautious and predict a $125 million opening weekend. This is still simply fantastic and the only downside is Sony and Disney have to work together to make this work in the long term. This is Sony’s second best domestic opening of all time. (Spider-Man 3 is the only one that beats it.) It could open with more than last year’s number one domestic hit for the studio, Ghostbusters, earned in total. Sony has a lot of reasons to work with Disney to keep Spider-Man in the MCU.
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Logan Lucky Trailer
July 7, 2017
Comedy starring Channing Tatum, Adam Driver, and Riley Keough, directed by Steven Soderbergh opens August 18 ... Full Movie Details.
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Limited and VOD Releases: Stories from the City
July 7, 2017
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There are only eight announced limited release films this week, and only two of them have more than ten reviews: City of Ghosts and A Ghost Story. Another film, Swim Team, only has seven reviews, but all seven are positive. However, two of those three films are documentaries, which leaves A Ghost Story as the only film with a real shot at box office success.
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Contest: Win the War
July 7, 2017
Next weekend is busier than this weekend with two wide releases and a wide expansion; however, War for the Planet of the Apes will tower over Wish Upon and The Big Sick and it is the only real choice for the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening three-day weekend box office number for War for the Planet of the Apes.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprise consisting of their choice of either one TV on DVD release, two movies, or a kids package (could be a theatrical release, a couple of single-disc TV on DVD releases, or a full season TV on DVD release). Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, as described above. Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven’t won, or haven’t won recently, and they will win the final Frankenprize, as described above.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don’t delay!
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Thursday Night Previews: Spider-Man Swings into Theaters with $15.4 million in Previews
July 7, 2017
Spider-Man: Homecoming needed to make more than Wonder Woman during its previews in order to match it at the box office. Wonder Woman’s audience was disproportionately female, especially more mature women. This demographic tends to help a film’s legs at the expense of its opening weekend. So if Homecoming only made a little more than the $11.0 million Wonder Woman made, it would fail to crack $100 million over the weekend. Fortunately, it crushed that figure with $15.4 million on Thursday night. This is the third-best figure for previews this year, behind only Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 ($17.0 million) and Beauty and the Beast ($16.3 million). Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 is the better comparison, as the audiences for the two films match up nearly perfectly. If Homecoming does match Guardians’ legs, then it will earn just over $130 million over the weekend. I think the fact that this is the sixth Spider-Man movie and third incarnation of the character in 15 years will hurt its legs a little bit, but $125 million is the new goal to aim for. The only downside here is behind-the-scenes, as the character is being shared by Sony and Disney and I’m not sure how long they can work together.
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Weekend Predictions: Spider-Man’s Coming Home to the MCU
July 6, 2017
Spider-Man: Homecoming is the only film opened wide this weekend and that should help it dominate the box office. In fact, it should have the biggest opening since Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2. The competition will put a dent in Despicable Me 3’s box office during the weekend, but even so, it will likely break even sometime over the weekend. This weekend last year had The Secret Life of Pets at the top with just over $100 million, while there were four other films earning $10 million or more. Spider-Man: Homecoming should top The Secret Life of Pets, but the depth this year won’t be as good. If 2017 does lose the year-over-year competition, then its lead over 2016 could evaporate completely.
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International Box Office: Despicable Me Wrestles Top Spot from Optimus Prime with $98.8 million
July 6, 2017
Despicable Me 3 dominated the international box office almost as much as it dominated the domestic box office earning $98.8 million on 8,525 screens in 52 markets for totals of $121.1 million international and $171.2 worldwide. Its biggest opening came from the U.K., where it earned $14.50 million in 608 theaters, while Mexico wasn’t far behind with $12.34 million. However, arguably its most impressive opening came in Brazil where it earned $7.5 million, which is the best opening for an animated film in that market. The film has already made enough to pay for its $75 million production budget, so it is a monster hit. However, its decline from Minions means Universal is more likely to make a second and third Minions movie rather than a fourth Despicable Me. As someone who prefers the Despicable Me movies, this is disappointing. On the other hand, I recognize I’m not in the target demographic for these films, so I really shouldn’t have a say in these things.
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Theater Counts: Spider-Man Opens in 4,348 Theaters
July 6, 2017
Sony’s biggest release of the year will get the second-widest opening of the year for any studio so far this weekend. Spider-Man: Homecoming sets out in 4,348 theaters on Friday, which is a bit behind Despicable Me 3’s record-setting 4,529 theaters last weekend, but one better than the 4,347 theaters that Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 opened in back in May. For former film opened with a somewhat disappointing $72 million, while the latter clocked in with $146.5 million. Spider-Man is expected to land somewhere between the two. In fact, $110 million, which is a pretty good bet, lands almost precisely between those two numbers.
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Contest: Me Me Me: Winning Announcement
July 6, 2017
The winners of our Me Me Me contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Despicable Me 3’s opening weekend were...
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The Only Living Boy in New York Trailer
July 6, 2017
Drama starring Callum Turner and Kate Beckinsale, with Pierce Brosnan, Cynthia Nixon and Jeff Bridges opens August 11 ... Full Movie Details.
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Theater Averages: Little Hours has Large $30,780 Opening
July 6, 2017
The Little Hours led the way on the theater average chart with an average of $30,780 in two theaters. This is Gunpowder and Sky’s first release, which makes its first place finish even more impressive. Last week’s winner, The Big Sick, held on well in second place with an average of $23,267 in 71 theaters. The only other film in the $10,000 club was the overall first place film, Despicable Me 3, which earned an average of $15,993.
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Weekend Wrap-Up: Is Despicable Becoming Disposable after $72.43 million Opening?
July 5, 2017
The weekend box office chart was as predicted, at least in terms of the order. Most of the new releases / top five had weaker openings / sharper declines. Despicable Me 3 still led the way, but with a more subdued $72.43 million. Baby Driver is hoping to earn that much in total after a $20.55 million / $29.58 million opening. This is almost as much as it cost to make. The House, on the other hand, was DOA with just $8.72 million. On the positive side, Monday and Tuesday were much stronger than usual, so rather than looking at the weekend box office and saying it is weaker than anticipated, we could instead say the weekend box office was stretched out over five days. Overall, the box office grew 20% from last week to $169 million. This is down 11% from the same weekend last year, but again, one could argue this is due to a misalignment in the Independence Day holiday. Year-to-date, 2017 is still ahead of 2016, but the lead shrank to under $30 million at $5.64 billion to $5.61 billion.
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The Glass Castle Trailer
July 5, 2017
Drama starring Brie Larson and Woody Harrelson opens August 11 ... Full Movie Details.
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In Defense of Rotten Tomatoes
July 4, 2017
I’ve seen a lot of people attacking Rotten Tomatoes recently saying it is bad for the movie business. Some even point to Transformers: The Last Knight as proof that the site can ruin a film’s box office chances. Besides that charge, the other two main complaints I’m hearing over and over again are A.) Rotten Tomatoes is a very shallow site, especially the Tomatometer. And B.) It is killing in-depth critical examination of movies. I’ll tackle those claims below.
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Revised Weekend Estimates: Despicable Shrinks to $72.41 million
July 3, 2017
The combination of Canada Day and Independence Day has resulted in some studios not releasing the weekend final numbers today. Some are releasing final numbers, some have updated Sunday’s estimates, while others are just waiting until Wednesday for final results. Despicable Me 3 is in the middle category, as Universal revised its estimate downwards to $72.41 million. This is still a great opening, but it is also a troubling trajectory, as it has fallen a lot from Friday’s Estimates, when it looked like it was going to hit $83 million. Granted, this is still the sixth-biggest opening of the year, so Universal has reason to celebrate, but its internal multiplier suggests short legs for a family film. I think this is a case of franchise fatigue, as its reviews were good, even if they were not as good as the previous Despicable Me films.
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Annabelle: Creation Trailer
July 3, 2017
Supernatural horror movie opens August 11 ... Full Movie Details.
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Home Market Releases for July 4th, 2017
July 3, 2017
This is one of the worst weeks on the home market that I’ve seen. The summer is usually a bad time on the home market, but this year July 4th lands on Tuesday, which further hurts the quality of releases coming out this week. The biggest non-VOD release of the week is The Zookeeper’s Wife, which would be a secondary Blu-ray release on an average week. The second biggest release, Song to Song, did so poorly on the box office that it would be filler if it weren’t for its pedigree. As for the best new release of the week... Free Fire is coming out on Video on Demand. The reviews are good, but not really Pick of the Week material. I guess the best new release on this week’s list is HYOUKA: Part One. I think this is the first time an Anime TV series has been named Pick of the Week.
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Weekend Estimates: Despicable Me’s Solid $75 Million Starts July 4 Holiday Week
July 2, 2017
With July 4 falling on a Tuesday this year, this is less a holiday weekend, and more the beginning of a holiday week, and it’s bookended by new releases from two of the industry’s most reliable franchises. Despicable Me 3 starts off festivities this weekend with a solid-but-unspectacular $75.4 million from a record-setting 4,529 theaters. Breaking The Twilight Saga: Eclipse’s record for widest opening weekend of all time is no small feat for Universal, but it’s an ominous sign for the franchise that the only film to open in close to this number of theaters and pull in similar numbers at the box office was Shrek Forever After, which opened with $70.8 million in 4,359 theaters back in 2010. That was the last Shrek movie, and this might be a good time for Gru to call it a day.
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Friday Estimates: Despicable Me 3’s $29.2 million Debut is Top Animated Day of the Year
July 1, 2017
As expected, Despicable Me 3 earned first place at the box office on Friday with $29.2 million. This is the best single day for an animated film this year. To emphasize, this isn’t just the best opening day, but the best single day, and it should top that on Saturday. The previous record was $23.00 million, earned by The Lego Batman Movie. This film’s reviews are not as good as The Lego Batman Movie’s reviews are (they both earned A minuses from CinemaScore) so it won’t have the same legs. That said, an $83 million opening is still a great start and roughly on par with Despicable Me 2.
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2017 Preview: July
July 1, 2017
I hate it when the first of the month lands on a Saturday. By the time this story goes live, we will still have almost no box office data for Despicable Me 3, so we won’t know if June ended on a positive note. Fortunately, Wonder Woman beat expectations and might end up as the biggest hit of the summer, at least for a little while. July begins with Spider-Man: Homecoming, which should make at least $300 million and is the last film being released this summer that has a shot at being a $400 million hit domestically. It is very likely that nothing else this month will come within $100 million of that movie, so that could help its legs. There are a few potential $100 million hits, including War for the Planet of the Apes, Dunkirk, and a couple of other long shots. Last July had a similar feel with The Secret Life of Pets topping the list with well over $300 million, while there were five other $100 million hits. This July would have to beat expectations substantially to match this performance. I’m not confident 2017 will be able to maintain its pace at the box office. I’m worried at least one big film will struggled and 2017 will end the month behind 2016’s pace.
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