The Numbers News - September 2017
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Friday Estimates: American Makes it an Exciting Race with $6.1 million
September 30, 2017
American Made topped the box office chart on Friday with $6.1 million. This is a little better than predicted and certainly better than previews were suggesting it would make. Its 85% positive reviews should result in long legs. On the other hand, its B plus from CinemaScore is the definition of average. It could grab first place with just over $16 million, but it is not the only film on pace to earn that much this weekend.
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Limited and VOD Releases: Will any of the Limited Releases Get Lucky at the Box Office?
September 29, 2017
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This week’s selection of limited releases is mixed. There are a couple of potential Oscar contenders, Lucky and Our Souls at Night, but neither is expected to be a major player at the box office. In fact, Our Souls at Night is playing on Video on Demand, so its box office potential is close to zero. Likewise, Window Horses, Bugs, and I am Another You are all earning 100% positive reviews, but none are expected to find breakout success on the art house scene.
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Thursday Night Previews: American Only Made $960,000 in Previews
September 29, 2017
American Made only managed $960,000 in previews, which is a little low compared to predictions. I wasn’t expecting a multi-million dollar opening in previews, but I was expecting a little more than this. Its reviews should help its legs, putting it on pace for $13 million, rather than the just under $14 million we originally prediction. Like I said, its previews were a little low side, not significantly so. On the other hand, a $13 million start is terrible for a film that reportedly cost between $60 million and $80 million.
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Contest: Sharp as a Blade
September 29, 2017
Next weekend there are three wide releases, plus another film with a planned wide expansion. However, in reality, only Blade Runner 2049 has a shot at first place. It will very likely earn more than the other three films combined will earn this weekend. It will likely earn more over the weekend than any of the other three films earn in total. Because of that, it is the only real choice for the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening three-day weekend box office number for Blade Runner 2049.
We are continuing the Halloween Trick or Treat contests this week. Each winner will get a Frankenprize that is either Halloween Treat, a Horror film plus another prize, or a Halloween Trick, a movie so bad it is scary it was made plus another prize.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize, as described above. Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, as described above. Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven’t won, or haven’t won recently, and they will win the final win a Frankenprize, as described above.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don’t delay!
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Weekend Predictions: How Will September End? With A Whimper.
September 28, 2017
It looks like September will end with a whimper, as there are three wide releases, none of which are expected to be midlevel hits. American Made should have no trouble being the biggest of the three new releases, but it has a less than 50/50 chance of earning first place. Flatliners’ buzz started out quiet and it failed to grow by any significant margin. It looks like it will open below $10 million. Finally there’s Til Death Do Us Part, which may or may not manage a spot in the top ten. 2017’s mini-winning streak looks to be over, as this weekend last year had two films earning more than $20 million, Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children and Deepwater Horizon. This year, there will likely be none.
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Annihilation Trailer
September 28, 2017
Sci-fi drama starring Natalie Portman, written and directed by Alex Garland opens February 23, 2018 ... Full Movie Details.
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International Box Office: Kingsman King of the World with $61.18 million
September 28, 2017
Kingsman: The Golden Circle made its international debut and it was mostly really good news, as it topped the chart with $61.18 million on 11,623 screens in 64 markets. Its biggest market was the U.K., where it earned $11.40 million on 602 screens. This is a massive improvement over the $6.4 million its predecessor opened with. Likewise, this film earned $6.01 million on 1300 screens in Russia, up from $3.5 million for the first film. It wasn’t able to grow that much in Australia, but it did increase its haul to $4.56 million on 405 screens, up from $3.22 million on 372 for the original film. The film has yet to open in France, South Korea, China, and Japan, so this is a great start. It very likely won’t have the same legs, but even so, $400 million worldwide is a solid milestone to aim for, given this start.
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Contest: King of the Prizes: Winning Announcement
September 27, 2017
The winners of our King of the Prizes contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Kingsman: The Golden Circle’s opening weekend were...
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Theater Averages: Victoria and Abdul win by Royal Decree with $39,711
September 27, 2017
Victoria and Abdul earned first place on the theater average chart with an average of $39,711 in four theaters. This is an excellent start and the movie has a lot of room to grow. Battle of the Sexes was playing in 21 theaters and earned an average of $24,545. It too has room to expand. It might even expand enough to get some Awards Season buzz. Unrest just managed a spot in the $10,000 club with $10,607 in one theater. That’s great for a documentary.
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Home Market Releases for September 26th, 2017
September 27, 2017
Transformers: The Last Knight is the biggest release of the week and it has scared away a lot of the competition, but it’s garbage and should be avoided. There are no big releases that are pick of the week contenders, but some smaller ones fit the bill, including David Lynch: The Art Life: The Criterion Collection, HYOUKA: Part Two, and Shameless: The Complete Seventh Season. All are amazing and worth checking out, but none have many extras, so it is up to the role of the dice to determine the Pick of the Week. ... And it’s HYOUKA.
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Featured DVD Review: L.O.R.D: Legend of Ravaging Dynasties
September 26, 2017
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I try to average one review a week and this week I had two potential screeners I could request. L.O.R.D: Legend of Ravaging Dynasties, a computer animated Chinese film that most of our readers have probably never heard of, and Transformers: The Last Knight, the latest installment in one of the biggest franchises around. I choose L.O.R.D: Legend of Ravaging Dynasties, because even after reading a plot summary, and being utterly confused, I still felt it was the better choice for review. Confusing can still be entertaining, while The Last Knight would just make me angry. Did I make the right choice?
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Weekend Wrap-Up: Kingsman Earns Gold with $39.02 million
September 26, 2017
The weekend box office was good, for a September weekend, but disappointing compared to expectations. Kingsman: The Golden Circle did earn first place, but with only $39.02 million. Granted, this is great for September, but $10 million less than our prediction, and our prediction wasn’t even on the high end of expectations. The Lego Ninjago Movie struggled in third place with $20.43 million. The shine has come off the Lego franchise. Fortunately, It continues to be strong and that helped the overall box office. We saw 5.6% growth from last weekend reaching $117 million. This is also 13% higher than the same weekend last year, so there’s clearly reason to celebrate. 2017 is still behind 2016 in the year-to-date comparison, but it closed the gap to 4.7% or $390 million at $7.94 billion to $8.33 billion.
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The Maze Runner: The Death Cure Trailer
September 25, 2017
Action movie starring Dylan O’Brien, Kaya Scodelario, and Thomas Brodie Sangster opens January 26, 2018 ... Full Movie Details.
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Weekend Estimates: Kingsman Circles $39 Million
September 24, 2017
The fine line between mere popularity and capturing the zeitgeist (or going viral, to use a slightly more up-to-date term) is shown in this weekend’s box office results. Kingsman: The Golden Circle, a decently-reviewed sequel to a very popular franchise-starter, will pick up a very respectable $39 million this weekend. That’s a shade better than the original film made on its opening weekend, and a pretty satisfying result for all concerned. With good business expected overseas (we don’t have an official estimate yet), the film should cruise to profitability overall, and will most likely top $100 million domestically. It would also have counted as the fourth-best opening weekend in September, were it not for the behemoth zeitgeist-capturer, It.
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Friday Estimates: Kingsman Not Quite Golden with $15.33 million Opening Day
September 23, 2017
Kingsman: The Golden Circle opened on the low end of expectations with $15.33 million on Friday. This puts it on pace for just under $40 million over the full weekend. This is a little more than the $36.21 million the original managed back in 2015. This film has earned weaker reviews, but both films earned a B plus from CinemaScore. Still sequels tend to have shorter legs, so getting much past $100 million domestically will be difficult. This is not good news for a film that cost $104 million to make. I don’t think there will be a third film in the franchise, not unless it shows some growth internationally.
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Limited and VOD Releases: Battle of the Early Award Season Contenders
September 22, 2017
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There are a trio of films on this week’s list that are Awards Season adjacent: Battle of the Sexes, Stronger, and Victoria and Abdul. All three earned some pre-release Awards Season buzz, but I’m not sure any of them will be serious contenders. Hopefully at least one of them will be a box office success.
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Isle of Dogs Trailer
September 22, 2017
Animated adventure written and directed by Wes Anderson, with the voices of, among many others, Bill Murray, and Edward Norton opens March 23, 2018 ... Full Movie Details.
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Thursday Night Previews: Kingsman Pulls in $3.4 million in Golden Debut - Updated
September 22, 2017
As expected, Kingsman: The Golden Circle had the best previews, earning $3.4 million last night. The original film opened with $1.4 million during its previews; however, this is not a good predictor for two reasons. Firstly, that was two years ago, which is a lifetime ago in terms of previews. Secondly, it was at a different time of year and previews are very dependent on time of year. Perhaps a closer comparison would be The Magnificent Seven, as that film earned $1.75 million this weekend last year, on the way to $67 million. However, Kingsman: The Golden Circle earned weaker reviews and it has a younger target audience, so it will likely have worse legs. In fact, it could have worse legs than It did, which would leave the film with just $31 million during its opening weekend. I was expecting about $4 million last night, so unless its legs are better, it won’t match its prediction. That said, just over $40 million is still good and if it can merely match its predecessor’s legs, then it will break even sometime during its home market run.
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Contest: Halloween Arrives Early
September 22, 2017
September ends on a low note with two wide releases, American Made and Flatliners, neither of which are expected to be anything more than midlevel hits. American Made is nearly done its international run (It only has about a dozen markets left to open in) and it is not going well. That said, it is still expected to do much better than Flatliners, so it is the better choice for the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening three-day weekend box office number for American Made.
We are starting the Halloween Trick or Treat contests a little early, because I still have a lot of horror films I’ve saved for this time of year and this will be the last Halloween for the Box Office Prediction contest. In fact, the Box Office Prediction contest will be ending at the end of the year. Each winner from now until Halloween will either win a horror movie or a movie so bad it is scary it was made. (Each winner will also get a TV on DVD release or a kids DVD, because I’m trying to run out of prizes by the end of the year.)
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Trick or Treat Frankenprize, as described above. Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Trick or Treat Frankenprize, as described above. Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven’t won, or haven’t won recently, and they will win the final Trick or Treat Frankenprize, as described above.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don’t delay!
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Theater Counts: Ninjago and Kingsman Both Hit 4,000 Theaters this Weekend
September 21, 2017
Fall season gets under way in earnest this weekend with the release of The Lego Ninjago Movie and Kingsman: The Golden Circle. Both films are expected to do well, and at least one of them should beat current box office champ, It this weekend. Ninjago opens in 4,047 theaters, while Golden Circle launches in 4,003. It will remain in 4,007 movie houses, which gives us three films playing in over 4,000 locations this weekend.
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Weekend Predictions: Will the New Releases Earn Gold?
September 21, 2017
There are three wide releases coming out this week, which is one more than anticipated. Kingsman: The Golden Circle is widely expected to earn first place during the weekend, but The Lego Ninjago Movie is widely expected to have longer legs and that could give it the win overall. Meanwhile, Friend Request is just hoping to earn a spot in the top five. It’s not a sure bet that it will. Meanwhile, It will relinquish first spot and fall to third place, but still earn a ton of money. This weekend last year, the one-two punch of The Magnificent Seven and Storks helped the overall box office pull in $104 million. The top three films this year should earn more than that, to give 2017 another win. It will still take a lot to recover, but this result at least makes that possible.
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Same Kind of Different as Me Trailer
September 21, 2017
Drama starring Greg Kinnear, Renée Zellweger, and Djimon Hounsou opens October 20 ... Full Movie Details.
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International Box Office: War Comes to China and earns $61.07 million
September 21, 2017
War for the Planet of the Apes returned to the top of the chart earning $62.9 million in 21 markets for totals of $287.9 million internationally and $433.8 worldwide. The film debuted in first place in China with $59.66 million over the weekend for a total opening of $61.07 million.
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Contest: Assassinate the Competition: Winning Announcement
September 20, 2017
The winners of our Assassinate the Competition contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for American Assassin’s opening weekend were...
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Leatherface Trailer
September 20, 2017
Horror movie opens October 20 ... Full Movie Details.
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Theater Averages: Brad Challenge’s the Status Quo with $22,480
September 20, 2017
Brad’s Status led the way on the theater average chart with an average of $22,480 in four theaters. It was the only holdover in the $10,000 club earning an average of $14,490. The only other member of the $10,000 was Ex Libris: The New York Public Library, which earned $10,926 in one theater over the weekend and $16,308 from Wednesday through Sunday. It won’t expand significantly, because it is a documentary, but the distributor should be very happy with this result.
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Home Market Releases for September 19th, 2017
September 20, 2017
I think it is a really good week on the home market. The biggest release of the week is Wonder Woman, which is also one of the best wide releases of the year. The extras are strong and the Blu-ray Combo Pack / 3D Combo Pack are Pick of the Week contenders. It isn’t the winner, as The Big Sick is one of the best movies I’ve seen all year and the DVD / Blu-ray Combo Pack is loaded with extras.
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Woodshock Trailer
September 19, 2017
Drama starring Kirsten Dunst opens on Friday ... Full Movie Details.
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Weekend Wrap-Up: It Eats the Competition
September 19, 2017
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It beat expectations again, earning $60.10 million over the weekend, which would have been an amazing opening weekend for a film that cost $35 million to make. American Assassin did okay, given its budget, while mother! struggled. Overall, the box office fell from last weekend, which is not surprising, given It’s monster opening last weekend. A decline of 32% is stark, but a weekend haul of $111 million is still great for this time of year. Compared to this weekend last year, 2017 won by a 24%, which is fantastic. Year-to-date, 2017 is still way behind by $410 million or 5.0% at $7.79 billion to $8.20 billion. However, 2017 has cut into 2016’s lead by $90 million in just two weeks, so you can’t complain about that.
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Daisy Winters Trailer
September 18, 2017
Drama starring Sterling Jerins, Iwan Rheon, Carrie Preston, and Brooke Shields opens October 6 ... Full Movie Details.
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Featured Blu-ray and DVD Review: The Hero
September 18, 2017
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The Hero is one of several limited releases that were able to earn some measure of mainstream success, but was never able to expand even semi-wide. Is it a film that could only thrive in the art house circuit? Or does it have more mainstream appeal? Or was it too mainstream, which is why it didn’t do amazing business in art house theaters?
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Weekend Estimates: It Continues to Dominate as Openers Flounder
September 17, 2017
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It continues to be a powerhouse at the box office this weekend with a second-weekend $60 million expected by Warner Bros., off a very respectable 51% from its opening. Remarkably, that would comfortably have been the best weekend in September, were it not for the film’s $123 million opening last weekend. It’s already the highest-grossing film ever released in September, and should make it easily to $300 domestically.
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Featured Blu-ray and DVD Review: The Big Sick
September 17, 2017
The Big Sick is the biggest limited release of the year earning over $40 million. This puts it ahead of many wide releases, including Ghost in the Shell, Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets, and King Arthur Legend of the Sword, all of which cost more than $100 million to make. Is this film as good as its box office numbers? Or did it benefit from an historically weak summer?
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Friday Estimates: It still has it with $19.2 million on Friday
September 16, 2017
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As expected, It dominated Friday with $19.2 million. Its running tally is $177.91 million after just 8 days of release, putting it in top spot on the all-time September chart. It looks to be on pace for $57 million over the full weekend, which is even better than expected, giving it a running tally of over $210 million. A 55% decline is excellent in this day and age, especially for a horror film, as the genre tends to have shorter legs. This will make it the 8th film released in 2017 to get to $200 million. It will also become only the fourth horror film to get to $200 million and just the 16th R-Rated film to reach that milestone. Furthermore, while next week’s competition is stronger, it is currently on pace to reach $300 million domestically, which is more than most people originally predicted it would earn worldwide. Perhaps this means we will be getting a big-budget At the Mountains of Madness adaptation after all. Previously, no studios wanted to make a big-budget R-rated horror movie, but this film proves they can be profitable.
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All the Money in the World Trailer
September 15, 2017
Real-life thriller starring Michelle Williams, Kevin Spacey, and Mark Wahlberg, directed by Ridley Scott opens December 8 ... Full Movie Details.
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Limited and VOD Releases: Far from Perfect, but Still Worth Checking Out
September 15, 2017
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It’s almost Awards Season. Awards season is an amazing time of year for limited releases. Sadly, this means a lot of films that are not good enough to compete during Awards Season are being pushed out now. That doesn’t mean there are no good films worth checking out, but they are a minority compared to the films earning bad reviews, or not enough reviews to talk about. Abracadabra, Ex Libris, The Future Perfect, and Indivisible all have a shot at success on the art house circuit, even if none of them will likely expand beyond that.
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Thursday Night Previews: Assassin Doesn’t Hit the Motherlode with $915,000 - Updated
September 15, 2017
American Assassin earned $915,000 during its previews, which isn’t a lot, but it is also not unexpected. To put this into perspective, this is actually a little ahead of John Wick, which earned $870,000 before earning $14.42 million during its opening weekend. If American Assassin had the same legs, it would earn just over $15 million during its opening weekend. I think that’s a little too optimistic, as its reviews are mixed, while John Wick wowed critics. We predicted a $12 million opening weekend for this film and I remain confident in that number.
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Contest: King of the Prizes
September 15, 2017
It looks like it will be a good weekend at the box office next weekend, as both Kingsman: The Golden Circle and The Lego Ninjago Movie are expected to earn $100 million domestically. Ninjago should earn more overall, but Kingsman should start faster. Because of that, it is the better choice for the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening three-day weekend box office number for Kingsman: The Golden Circle.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of VEEP: Season Six on Blu-ray. Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a copy of Silicon Valley: Season Four on Blu-ray. Finally, we will also chose an entrant from the group of people who haven’t won, or haven’t won recently, and they will win a copy of The Immortal Life Of Henrietta Lacks on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don’t delay!
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Weekend Predictions: Will the New Releases Assassinate It? No.
September 15, 2017
There are two wide releases debuting this week: American Assassin and mother! Neither is expected to match It at the box office. In fact, both combined won’t match It’s sophomore stint. Neither will earn as much in total as It does over just this weekend. This weekend last year, Sully led the way with $21.65 million, while the three new releases earned about $26 million combined. It should earn more than those four films earned combined, giving 2017 its second massive win in a row.
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Theater Counts: American Assassin Opens in 3,154 Locations
September 14, 2017
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It’ll take a lot for any movie to catch up with It this weekend, and the task won’t be made any easier by the fact that the current box office champ is gaining an extra 45 theaters. (Which mean 45 theater managers must have been watching last weekend’s box office reports fairly enviously, one would imagine.) American Assassin will have the biggest shot, but is opening in 3,154 theaters: almost a thousand less than It’s 4,148.
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Red Sparrow Trailer
September 14, 2017
Thriller starring Jennifer Lawrence opens March 2, 2018 ... Full Movie Details.
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International Box Office: Spider-Man Swings into China with $70.63 million
September 14, 2017
Spider-Man: Homecoming returned to the international top five earning first place with $71.82 million on 21,675 screens in 47 markets for totals of $495.74 million internationally and $823.43 million worldwide. The film debuted in first place in China with $69.12 million on 20,440 screens over the weekend for a four-day opening of $70.63 million. This is already the biggest single market for the film, overtaking South Korea, where it has earned $51.51 million. At this point, the film will have no trouble getting to $900 million worldwide, but $1 billion is out of reach.
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New at The Numbers: Monthly Milestones, Record of Records, and Happy Holidays
September 14, 2017
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Here at The Numbers, we strive to improve your reading experience by adding more features we believe you will find interesting. Today, we have three new features to talk about, one of which is really timely. We recently mentioned most $100 million movies per year, while this week we announce most $100 million movies per month. This looks at all of the movies that earned more than $100 million, or $200 million, $300 million, etc. and what month of the year they debuted. It should come as no surprise that May, June, and December are at the top. Nor it is a surprise that January, April and September are at the bottom. The biggest surprise on this list is Crocodile Dundee, which is the biggest box office hit ever released in September, for now. No movie that has opened in September has ever earn more than $175 million, for now. Crocodile Dundee wasn’t expected to be a big hit, because it had two mostly unknown leads, hence the September release date. Despite this, it opened in first place, where it remained for two months, and it didn’t fall out of the top ten for nearly six. This is the kind of legs you never see any more. In fact, it is impressive for a film to stay in the top ten for two months and still be in theaters after six. However, all good things must come to an end and Crocodile Dundee is about to be overtaken by It, which is re-writing the September record book. Speaking of breaking records...
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Contest: Do You Have It?: Winning Announcement
September 13, 2017
The winners of our Do You Have It? contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for It’s opening weekend were...
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Only the Brave Trailer
September 13, 2017
Action movie starring Josh Brolin, Miles Teller, and Jeff Bridges opens October 20 ... Full Movie Details.
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Theater Averages: Box Office Has All It can Handle with $30,076
September 13, 2017
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It was the only film to earn more than $10,000 on the theater average chart this past weekend. It dominated the competition with an average of $30,076, which is the third best average for a wide release this year, behind Beauty and the Beast ($41,508) and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 ($33,704). The only limited release that came close to the $10,000 mark was Rebel in the Rye, which earned an average of $9,492 in four theaters.
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Home Market Releases for September 12th, 2017
September 13, 2017
Apparently it is Halloween, because there are a lot of horror titles on this week’s list. Some of them are good, some are not. As for Pick of the Week contenders, there are a few of them. If you have kids, then Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie on DVD, Blu-ray Combo Pack, or 4K Ultra Combo Pack is your best bet. If you are a fan of Sci-fi, then go with the final season for Orphan Black. However, in the end I went with Phenomena on Blu-ray. You can also buy the movie from the Official Site in a Steelbox with soundtrack and pamphlet.
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The Shape of Water Trailer
September 12, 2017
Sci-fi drama starring Sally Hawkins, written and directed by Guillermo del Toro, opens December 8 ... Full Movie Details.
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Weekend Wrap-Up: It Jump Starts Box Office with $123 million
September 11, 2017
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Historically, the weekend after the Labor Day long weekend is one of the worst weekends of the year. That is not the case this year. In fact, this year, this weekend was historic in a much more positive sense of the word. It broke tons of records, some of which were more esoteric. It demolished the records for biggest September weekend box office, biggest horror weekend, Biggest R-rated day, biggest opening weekend for a Stephen King, etc. All of this led to the weekend box office more than doubling last weekend’s total earning $163 million. This is also 62% higher than the same weekend last year. A change this severe usually only happens when there is a misalignment in holidays. I’ve been saying that a lot over the past few weeks; however, this has been due to a massive decline, so it is nice to be unabashedly positive for once. Year-to-date, 2017 is still well behind 2016 at $7.63 billion to $8.08 billion. 2017 did close the gap and it is now 5.6% or $450 million behind last year’s pace. If the movie industry can close the gap by this much each week, then it will take till Halloween before it has caught up in terms of dollars and would take until nearly Christmas to catch up in terms of ticket sales.
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Molly’s Game Trailer
September 11, 2017
Real-life drama starring Jessica Chastain and Idris Elba opens November 22 ... Full Movie Details.
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Featured DVD Review: Beatriz at Dinner
September 11, 2017
Beatriz at Dinner came out in limited release this past summer earning reviews that are good, but not great. Its box office results were very good for a limited release earning just over $7 million, but it never quite cracked the top ten. Does the film’s quality match this result? Is it good, but not great? Or did it deserve breakout success?
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Weekend Estimates: It Smashes September Record with $117 Million Weekend
September 10, 2017
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Not for the first time, reports of the death of North American film-going have been greatly exaggerated. In fact, if it’s possible for one film to change the perception of the entire market, It is pretty much, well, it. With an opening expected to be around $120 million—Warner Bros. is saying $117.15 million, although that’s due in part to caution around the effects of Hurricane Irma; the actual figure could be closer to $125 million, depending on how the storm plays out—the film breaks all sorts of records by a huge margin.
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Friday Estimates: It is Already Rewriting the Record Book with $51 million Friday
September 9, 2017
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It was widely expected to earn the biggest September weekend box office of all time. In fact, many were expecting it to crush the old record. However, almost no one expected this. The film earned an estimated $51 million on Friday, which is more than the previous record holder, Hotel Transylvania 2, earned during its entire opening weekend. September is traditionally a weak time to open a movie, but this is in the top 30 biggest opening Fridays of all-time. There is some bad news here, as the film isn’t expected to have long legs. While the reviews remain stunning, the film only managed a B plus from CinemaScore. This is better than most horror movies earn, but it suggests average legs, at best. There is a small chance the film will earn less over the rest of the weekend than it earned on Friday, but I think that’s being a bit too pessimistic. I would put its range at between $100 million and $125 million. There’s a large margin of error, because we are in unprecedented territory here. It goes without saying that the sequel is already in the works. Box office watchers will get to play amateur casting agents for a little while, but I suspect some big names will be cast as the adults for part two.
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Limited and VOD Releases: Quality Takes a Nap
September 8, 2017
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It’s a really busy week for limited releases, but it is a case of quantity over quality. There are no films that really stand out as potential hits this weekend. That’s not to say there are no films worth checking out, but for the most part this list is filled with films that are good, but not great. Anti-Matter, The Limehouse Golem, Lipstick Under My Burka, Napping Princess: The Story of the Unknown Me, and The Unknown Girl all could be described as good, but likely not good enough for limited release.
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Thursday Night Previews: It Scares the Pants of Deadpool with $13.5 million
September 8, 2017
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I was worried the extended box office slump would hurt It’s box office numbers, but it appears the opposite is true and moviegoers were just waiting for a big release. (On a side note, while “It’s” is grammatically correct, I’m so used to being paranoid about “its” vs. “it’s” that it looks wrong.) Anyhoo, It pulled in $13.5 million in previews, setting the record for best previews for an R-rated film, overtaking Deadpool’s previous best of $12.7 million. Where does it go from here? I don’t know is the only accurate answer. Previews haven’t been standard for long enough to be an accurate gauge, especially when they are on the extremes like this. It could become the first September release to earn $100 million during its opening weekend. Anything less than $75 million will be seen as a disappointment after this result. It all depends on its legs and that depends on whether or not its reviews will be a bigger factor than pre-release hype. I’m choosing to be cautiously optimistic. I’m not betting on $100 million, but $90 million is a reasonable goal at the moment.
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The Current War Trailer
September 8, 2017
Historical real-life drama starring Benedict Cumberbatch, Michael Shannon, Nicholar Hoult, and Katherine Waterston opens November 24 ... Full Movie Details.
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Contest: Assassinate the Competition
September 8, 2017
American Assassin and mother! are both expected to come close to $50 million during their domestic box office run. However, while neither film has a real advantage over the long term, American Assassin is expected to open faster and because of that, it is the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening three-day weekend box office number for American Assassin.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize consisting of their choice of either one TV on DVD release, two movies, or a kids package (could be a theatrical release, a couple of single-disc TV on DVD releases, or a full season TV on DVD release). Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, as described above. Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven’t won, or haven’t won recently, and they will win the final Frankenprize, as described above.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don’t delay!
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Weekend Predictions: Does It Have What it Takes to Rescue the Box Office?
September 7, 2017
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The weekend after the Labor Day long weekend is usually one of the worst weekends of the year. However, that’s not the case this year. In fact, this could be the best weekend in about two months. It is widely expected to dominate the box office. In fact, there are some who think it will earn much more than the rest of the box office combined. That would be great news for the overall box office numbers. On the other hand, Home Again is only expected to earn around $10 million; however, it reportedly only cost $15 million to make, so that’s not a bad opening. This weekend last year, the biggest new release was Sully with just over $35 million, while When the Bough Breaks did okay in a counter-programming role pulling in $14 million. Overall, the box office earned $101 million and if It lives up to the hype, it will help 2017 win in the year-over-year competition by a significant degree.
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Theater Counts: It to the Rescue
September 7, 2017
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After a much-reported dismal Summer, the Fall season will kick in robust form this weekend, with It launching in 4,103 theaters, and expected to break September records (which, to be fair, are about the easiest records in the industry to break). Also opening wide this weekend is Home Again, in 2,940 theaters.
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Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down the White House Trailer
September 7, 2017
Real-life drama starring Liam Neeson opens September 29 ... Full Movie Details.
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International Box Office: Dunkirk Invades China with $30.27 million
September 7, 2017
Dunkirk returned to the international top five for the first time in nearly a month with $36.5 million in 60 markets for totals of $280.0 million international and $459.0 million worldwide. Nearly all of this came from its first place opening in China, where it pulled in $29.80 million over the weekend for a four-day opening of $30.27 million. The film also opened in Italy, but had to settle for second place with $3.6 million on 606 screens. Dunkirk wraps up its international run in Japan this weekend and will finish with north of $500 million worldwide. Unless it cost an obscene amount to advertise, this will be enough to ensure profitability by its initial push into the home market.
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Theater Averages: Dolores Dunks on the Competition with $13,534
September 6, 2017
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Labor Day long weekend wasn’t nearly as bad we were expecting, but it still wasn’t what you could call good. There were two films to earn more than $10,000 on the theater average chart, which is better than we’ve seen some weeks this year; however, those were the only two new releases to come close to $10,000. Dolores opened in one theater earning $13,534 and this is amazing for a documentary. Viceroy’s House earned an average of $12,034 in four theaters.
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Daddy’s Home 2 Trailer
September 6, 2017
Comedy starring Will Ferrell, Mark Wahlberg, Mel Gibson, and John Lithgow opens November 10 ... Full Movie Details.
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Weekend Wrap-Up: Labor Day Bounce Helps Bodyguard Pull In $10.54 million
September 6, 2017
The last weekend of the summer had no new wide releases, so it made sense that the box office would drop even further. However, that was not the case. I think the combination of the last long weekend of the summer and terrible recent box office results led a lot of people to go to the movies one last time before school starts. After all, it is likely most moviegoers haven’t seen a movie in theaters for several weeks. The Hitman’s Bodyguard easily led the way with $10.54 million over three days and $13.27 million including Monday. It earned more over three days than any of its competitors earned over four. Overall, the box office rose 9.8% from last weekend to $76 million. Sadly, this is still 24% lower than the same weekend last year, but it could have been worse. Year-to-date, 2017 has pulled in $7.45 billion, which puts it 6.3% or $500 million behind last year’s pace.
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Home Market Releases for September 5th, 2017
September 5, 2017
There are a few first-run releases coming out this week, but none of them did well enough in theaters and / or with critics to bother with above the fold, so to speak. There is one exception, The Big Sick, but it is only coming out on VOD this week. I’m hoping a Blu-ray screener is on its way. As for the Pick of the Week contenders, they are, in alphabetical order, Emmet Otter’s Jug-Band Christmas on DVD, Mr. Mom on Blu-ray, and Rebecca: Criterion Collection on Blu-ray. In the end, I went with the Alfred Hitchcock classic as the Pick of the Week.
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Insidious: The Last Key Trailer
September 5, 2017
Horror movie opens January 5, 2018 ... Full Movie Details.
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Featured Blu-ray and DVD Review: The Mummy
September 3, 2017
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The Mummy came out this summer and was supposed to kick off Universal’s Dark Universe franchise. In fact, Universal had announced about a dozen films in the franchise, at least one of which had a release date, but no star. Then the reviews started coming out. For a short time, The Mummy was the worst wide release of the summer. It bombed domestically and even though it did a lot better internationally, it still failed to pay for its nearly $200 million production budget. Was is unfairly attacked by critics? Or does Universal need to rethink their plans for a Dark Universe?
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Weekend Estimates: Labor Day Weekend Looking Better Than Expected
September 3, 2017
This weekend is somewhat uncharted territory for the movie industry, with no new releases rolling out in over 1,000 theaters and no dominant film already playing. Fortunately, the result is looking like a glass that is at least half full. Thanks in part to the holiday weekend, and the start of recovery from Hurricane Harvey, several returning films improved their box office from last weekend, and the number one film, The Hitman’s Bodyguard, will remain flat from its last outing, with $10.25 million expected by Lionsgate, and a total around $55 million by the end of the day on Sunday.
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Friday Estimates: Hitman Guards the Box Office with $2.43 million
September 2, 2017
Expectations for this weekend were really low. They were so low that when I saw The Hitman’s Bodyguard had earned $2.43 million on Friday, I was pleasantly surprised. That’s only 20% lower than last Friday and the holiday should boost its three-day legs, helping it earn just over $9 million. It’s on pace for $12 million over four days for a running tally of over $55 million. That’s enough for Lionsgate’s share to cover its entire $30 million production budget.
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Breathe Trailer
September 1, 2017
Real-life drama starring Andrew Garfield and Claire Foy, directed by Andy Serkis opens October 13 ... Full Movie Details.
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Theater Counts: Taking the Weekend Off
September 1, 2017
There are many ways of measuring how slow things are in movie theaters this weekend: the fact that there are no new wide releases, for example, or that we’re quite likely going to see the worst overall weekend at the box office in 20 years. But one that encapsulates the poor options for theater owners right now is that Cars 3, which is pretty much a dud by Pixar’s standards, and is entering its fourth month in release, will be playing in the most “new” theaters this weekend, as it expands back from 214 to 2,445 locations. When a film that earned $787 per theater last weekend gets that kind of expansion, you know things are really bad.
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Limited and VOD Releases: Goon takes on Dolores Huerta
September 1, 2017
It’s not a good week for limited releases. It is too late for a limited release to take advantage of the summer, while it is still too soon to take advantage of Awards Season buzz. There are some movies that are worth checking out, including the documentary Dolores, but none jump out as having a lot of box office potential. Personally, the film I’m most intereted in seeing is Goon: Last of the Enforcers.
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2017 Preview: September
September 1, 2017
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As bad as July was, August actually managed to be worse. 2017 was over $300 million behind 2016’s pace during August alone. That’s worse than the rest of the summer combined. The only film that was an unqualified hit was Annabelle: Creation, although there were a couple of other films that are doing well enough to be considered financial hits. There’s some good news and some bad news for this September. The month gets off to a slow start with no wide releases the first weekend, but there are three films opening during the rest of the month that are expected to top $100 million and all three should be better than the best August had to offer. It is expected to be the biggest hit of the month and is tracking to break the record for the biggest September weekend. Both Kingsman: The Golden Circle and The Lego Ninjago Movie are expected to cross $100 million, although they are opening the same weekend, so that could hurt both of their chances. Meanwhile last September, Sully was the biggest release of the month earning $125.07 million. It should top that, while Kingsman: The Golden Circle and The Lego Ninjago Movie won’t be too far behind. 2017 should cut the gap with 2016, but sadly only by a little bit.
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