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Weekend Predictions: Will Hard Get to the Top?

March 26th, 2015

Get Hard poster

There is an actual race at the box office this weekend. This is rare, because there's usually one obvious number one film, as studios don't want to deal with competition. However, this week, both Get Hard and Home have a shot at first place with $30 million or so. Additionally, there are two other films, Insurgent and Cinderella, that are aiming to reach $20 million over the weekend. That's a lot of depth. There is one final film of note, It Follows, which is expanding semi-wide and could find a spot in the top five. This weekend last year, the box office was led by Noah with $43.72 million, while two other films, Divergent and Muppets Most Wanted earned more than $10 million. 2015 has better depth, but it won't be as strong at the top. I'm not sure which year will come out on top, but it should be close.

Get Hard stars Will Ferrell and Kevin Hart, two men who have shown they can lead a $100 million movie. Combining their talents should have created a comic masterpiece. Unfortunately, that appears to not have been the case, as the reviews are bad. Most critics are complaining that the movie goes for cheap laughs based on stereotypes instead of actual humor. This likely will have an effect on the film's box office chances and will probably prevent it from reaching $100 million. It should still open in first place over the weekend with $32 million, although by Sunday it might slip to second place.

Home is the latest digitally animated film to hit theaters in March. As I pointed out in the March Preview, there has been at least one $100 million digitally animated hit to come out in March every year, since Meet the Robinsons just failed to reached that milestone in 2007. Unfortunately, it seems that streak is over. The buzz for this film isn't good, nor are its reviews. Look for an opening weekend haul of close to $30 million, but I don't think it will have great legs at the box office.

Insurgent is going to be hurt really hard this weekend, because of weak reviews and the Sequel Effect. Sequels tend to start faster than their predecessors do, but fall faster as well. Unfortunately Insurgent didn't open as well as Divergent did and it could fall 60% at the box office. Further evidence of this comes from the midweek numbers, which have been weaker than expected. Look for $23 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $86 million. It will still get to $100 million, but it won't match the first film in the franchise.

Cinderella should be close behind. It won't drop nearly as much as Insurgent will, thanks in part to its reviews and its family-friendly nature. It might fall below $20 million, but I think it will avoid that.

The final film of note is It Follows, which is expanding to over 1,000 theaters. This horror film opened in limited release, which is really hard path for this genre. It opened with great reviews and opened with the second best per theater average this year and held on better than expected. As a result, it is expanding semi-wide and has a great shot at grabbing fifth place. At the high end, it could manage $5 million over the weekend, but on the low end, it will struggle to get past $2 million. I think the high end is a little more likely and I'm predicting just under $4 million. That won't be enough to expand further, but it should be enough to ensure it breaks even sometime on the home market.


Filed under: Weekend Preview, Home, Home, Cinderella, The Divergent Series: Insurgent, Get Hard, It Follows, The Divergent Series, Will Ferrell, Kevin Hart