Follow us on

Weekend Predictions: Lucky Number Seven

April 3rd, 2015

Furious 7 poster

There's only one wide release this week, but it is expected to be a record-breaking debut. Furious 7 is widely expected to become the first film of 2015 to crack $100 million during its opening weekend. This would also give it the record for biggest April opening, topping the current record-owner, Captain America: The Winter Soldier. Additionally, Home should do well in a counter-programming role and that will also help the box office. This weekend last year was the weekend The Winter Soldier set the April record. Since nearly everyone thinks that record will fall and this year is expected to have better depth, 2015 should win in the year-over-year comparison with relative ease.

Furious 7 is the seventh film in the Fast and the Furious franchise. This is one of the most impressive franchises of all time. Not only is it very rare for a franchise to reach seven installments, but except for Tokyo Drift, every installment has grown at the worldwide box office. Furious 7 is expected to be the first film in the franchise to crack $100 million during its opening weekend, which would make it just the 30th film to reach the century market during its opening weekend. Expectations range from just over $100 million on the low end to significantly more than $130 million on the high end. I'm going with $121 million, which would be a tremendous boon to the yearly box office.

Home will be pushed to second place, but it should still do relatively well over the weekend. The mixed reviews won't help, while some families might decide to avoid theaters during Furious 7's debut, simply to avoid the crowds. A 50% drop-off isn't impossible, which would leave the film with just $26 million over the weekend. On the high end, it might avoid dropping 40%, which would give it just over $30 million over the weekend. Splitting the difference gets us a prediction of $28 million. Regardless, it will not quite reach $100 million over the weekend, but it will be close.

Get Hard will be in a distant third place with about $15 million. Its reviews are weak enough that the word-of-mouth will likely hurt, while the competition is so strong that it is unlikely to hold on very well. At this pace, it won't reach $100 million domestically, but it should come close enough to keep the studio happy.

Insurgent should earn fourth place with just over $10 million. This will be enough to push it past the century mark, while its goal is to match its predecessor's $110 million at the domestic box office. It should get there, but it could be really close.

Cinderella should round out the top five with just under $10 million. Despite earning amazing reviews, the film hasn't shown great legs.


Filed under: Weekend Preview, Home, Furious 7, Cinderella, The Divergent Series: Insurgent, Get Hard, Fast and the Furious