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Weekend Predictions: Is the Age of Furious 7 Over?

April 23rd, 2015

The Age of Adaline poster

The Age of Adaline is the only true wide release this week, and that could give it a boost at the box office. However, I seriously doubt that will give it a large enough boost to top Furious 7, which is looking to sweep the month of April. There is one other new release, Little Boy, that has a shot at the top ten. Finally, Ex Machina is expanding “nationwide.” I don't have a theater count for the film, but many think it will be truly wide, which would give it a shot at the top five. The Other Woman opened in first place this weekend last year, earning nearly $25 million. There’s no chance any film will match that figure this year. The top two films combined might not match that figure this year, so April will end on a losing note in the year-over-year comparison. That’s disappointing, but we will make up for the loss next week.

Furious 7 cracked $300 million on Wednesday, its 20th day of release. This isn’t the fastest a film has reached this milestone (The Avengers holds that record, along with many others), but it is still an amazing run. The film should add about $15 million to its running tally this weekend. Next weekend, Age of Ultron opens and will absolutely destroy the competition, including this film.

Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2’s weekday numbers have been among the worst in the top ten. This suggests the word-of-mouth is killing the film, which is not surprising given its reviews. (On a side note, the film finally received its first positive review.) Comedies generally hold up better than action or horror, so a 60% drop-off isn’t likely. A 50% drop-off is, on the other hand, which would leave the film with just $11 million during its second weekend of release.

Earlier this week, The Age of Adaline was earning 84% positive reviews on Rotten Tomatoes. At the moment, they are 55% positive. That’s a really sharp decline, but still better than many of the other wide releases that have come out this month. The most obvious comparison is The Longest Ride, which earned worse reviews, but has Nicholas Sparks’ name to help sell tickets. There is a chance the film will earn second place with about $13 million, but I think $10 million is more likely.

Unfriended and Home will likely be neck and neck with between $6 million and $7 million each, and it is a coin toss for which one will come out ahead. For Unfriended, this would be an okay decline for a horror film, while it would remain on pace to break even early in its home market run. For Home, this would push it to $150 million domestically.

Up next is Ex Machina, which is expanding nationwide and with its reviews and word-of-mouth it could do well. Depending on theater count, it could fight for fifth place with about $6 million. On the low end, it will struggle to get into the top ten, while playing in less than 1,000 theaters.

Little Boy is opening this weekend in just over 1,000 theaters. So far, its reviews are among the worst the year has to offer; however, it is a faith-based film and these films have proven themselves to be critic-proof in the past. That low theater count does suggest the studio doesn’t have a lot of, errr, hope in the movie, which could be a bigger problem than the weak reviews. Expectations range from $5 million to less than $2 million. The film will need to earn just over $3 million to reach the top ten and I think it will get there, barely.


Filed under: Weekend Preview, The Age of Adaline, Home, The Longest Ride, Furious 7, Little Boy, Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2, Ex Machina, Unfriended, Nicholas Sparks