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Weekend Predictions: Ultron vs. Loki

May 1st, 2015

The Avengers: Age of Ultron

The summer blockbuster season starts in earnest this weekend with the release of The Avengers: Age of Ultron. The film will open in first place, obviously, but the real question is whether or not it will top its predecessor. The first film opened with just over $207 million, which remains the record for an opening weekend. There is a better than 50/50 chance that the record will fall this weekend. If it doesn’t, you can expect a lot of film journalists writing stories about the end of the “Age of Marvel” / “Age of Super Heroes.” I have a funny feeling many of them are already written in anticipation of this possibility. The rest of the top five will be mostly an afterthought. This weekend last year, The Amazing Spider-Man 2 opened with $91.61 million over the weekend. Age of Ultron should make more than that opening day. 2015 is going to win the year-over-year comparison with ease.

Someday, super hero fatigue will set in and these movies will really struggle at the box office. That day isn’t today. Age of Ultron’s share of ticket sales on Fandango is 95%, while its early international numbers point to a potential $1 billion run internationally. Granted, the reviews are weaker than The Avengers' reviews were, but at 75% positive, it is still good for a summer blockbuster. It might be a sign that super hero fatigue has set in with critics. On the low end, this film will fail to match its predecessor and open with just over $200 million. On the high end, it will earn more than $230 million. I think $220 million is the most likely scenario.

Furious 7 will finally relinquish its hold on the top of the box office chart this weekend. However, its run has been so amazing that I don't think anyone at the studio is particularly troubled by being pushed into second place. Look for $8 million over the weekend for a total of $332 million after a month of release.

The Age of Adaline has climbed into second place on the daily chart and I think it will have a better hold than most films this weekend. The crossover audience between The Age of Adaline and Age of Ultron is not as large as with some of the other films in the top five. Look for just over $7 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $25 million. That’s not great, but it is not bad for a late April release.

Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 held on better than expected last week, but I think it will drop to fourth place with just under $7 million. It has already pulled in more than it cost to make, so assuming it can find an audience internationally, it will break even early in its home market run.

Home should round out the top five with $5 million, more or less. That film has made enough worldwide that it is probably close to breaking even, if not already in the black.


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Filed under: Weekend Preview, The Age of Adaline, Avengers: Age of Ultron, Home, Furious 7, Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2