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Weekend Estimates: Hot Pursuit No Match for Ultron

May 10th, 2015

The Avengers: Age of Ultron

Hot Pursuit is utterly failing to live up to its name this weekend, with an anaemic $13.3 million opening—the worst for Reese Witherspoon since Cruel Intentions in 1999, and her worst ever for a wide-release movie, when adjusted for inflation. The Avengers: Age of Ultron wasn't really expected to be threatened in first place, and is actually doing quite well for a movie that opened with close to $200 million. It will be down about 60% this weekend to $77.2 million, per Disney, the second-best second weekend ever, just ahead of Avatar, and some way behind The Avengers.

Looking at Ultron’s overall tracking, the film is trending a little higher than Iron Man 3 at this stage, and a final box office in the $400 million–$450 million range looks likely. That can only be described as a spectacular success, and with more than $500 million so far at the international box office the film will cruise past $1 billion worldwide.

Back on the domestic weekend chart, Ex Machina becomes A24’s most successful movie at the box office this weekend. It will earn $3.5 million this time around for a total to date of $15.7 million.

In limited release, Janus Films’ re-release of the Apu Trilogy will have the best theater average of the weekend with $16,333 at the Film Forum in New York. I Am Big Bird: The Caroll Spinney Story is looking like it will have the best theater average among new releases, with TriBeca Films projecting $10,150 from a single New York theater. Arguably making a stronger debut is Saint Laurent, with $36,136 projected by Sony Classics from four venues. Arguably topping a lot is Far from the Madding Crowd, which will generate around $760,000 in ticket sales from 99 theaters in its second weekend, for an average of $7,684.

Two films are making disappointing debuts in semi-wide release and limited release. The D Train is an out-and-out flop for IFC Films, with just $469,185 projected from 1,009 theaters, the distributor’s widest-ever opening. Maggie will make about $125,000 for Roadside Attractions from 79 venues—less of a disaster, but still disappointing.

Finally, 5 Flights Up is hitting a middle ground with $234,000 projected for the weekend from 87 theaters. Its theater average, $2,690, suggests it won’t expand enormously, but its pitch to an older demographic suggests it might hang around in theaters for a while.

- Weekend Estimates

Bruce Nash,

Filed under: Weekend Box Office, Limited Releases, Avengers: Age of Ultron, Far from the Madding Crowd, Hot Pursuit, Saint Laurent, 5 Flights Up, Ex Machina, Maggie, The D Train, I Am Big Bird: The Caroll Spinney Story, Pather Panchali, Marvel Cinematic Universe, Reese Witherspoon