2015 Preview: June
June 1, 2015
May turned out to be softer than anticipated with The Avengers: Age of Ultron missing expectations by about $100 million. Additionally, only Pitch Perfect 2 really topped expectations. May 2015 kept pace with May of 2014, more or less. June doesn't have any films as strong as Age of Ultron, but there are two films that should have no trouble getting to $200 million. Those two films are Jurassic World and Inside Out and I'm not sure which one will turn out to be the biggest hit of the month. Last June, the biggest hit was Transformers: Age of Extinction, but both Jurassic World and Inside Out should top that film, albeit by small margins. On the other hand, last June had four other films that reached $100 million, while this time around only Spy! and Ted 2 have a real shot at that milestone. 2015 is stronger at the top, but has weaker depth. It will be interesting to see if 2015 will keep pace with 2014 over the course of the full month.
The month begins with a trio of wide releases, starting with Entourage, which opens on Wednesday. The show lasted eight seasons before ending four years ago. On the other hand, critical opinion of the show soured well before the show ended and many people who were fans of the show early on gave up on the show before it ended. Insidious Chapter 3 is the third film of the franchise, but while there was a jump at the box office between the first and second installments, many think this one will return lower. Finally there is Spy!, which should be the biggest hit of the week. It has starpower and stunning early reviews. This weekend last year, The Fault in Our Stars opened with $48 million. I don't see any film this year matching that. I also don't think 2015 will keep up with 2014 overall, even with three wide releases vs. two for last year.
Entourage, the TV show, was on air for eight years before ending. Unfortunately, that was at least two years after it had jumped the shark. Additionally, while there are many, many films that are based on a TV Show, very few of them involve the original cast. That list is even smaller when you ignore animated films like The Simpsons Movie. Even many of the live action films are based on kids shows, like The Lizzie McGuire Movie and The Hannah Montana Movie. Live action TV shows aimed at adults are limited to stuff like Serenity, Trailer Park Boys, etc. Entourage is in the last group, which as you will notice, doesn't have a lot of major hits. This film cost $30 million to make and there is a chance it won't match that in theaters. Even if it does top its budget, it is unlikely to become even a midlevel hit.
The third film in the Insidious franchise is actually a prequel. Because of this, Insidious Chapter 3 doesn't have the stars of the previous two movies. We've seen that when a horror franchise loses its stars, the film tends to drop at the box office. (Although, in that case, the box office numbers were already in decline and the new installment had a much weaker release date.) Even so, I would be very surprised is the growth from the first two installments continued here. In fact, some think this will be the weakest film in the franchise, at least domestically. I'm a little more bullish than that, but not by a lot.
This film is written and directed by Paul Feig and stars Melissa McCarthy, among others. Up until 2011 and Bridesmaids, Paul Feig was best known for his TV work. Now he's one of the most in-demand comedy directors around. Likewise, Melissa McCarthy was mostly know for her TV work, but recently has starred in three $100 million hits (with a supporting role in another). On the other hand, her most recent film, Tammy, didn't reach that milestone. We also have some international numbers and they are mixed. Overall, they are good, but not great, and suggest Spy will earn between $80 million and $125 million here. That's a pretty big spread. At first I thought the lower end might be safer, but the film's reviews are just stunning. I think $100 million is more likely than not, while there's a chance the film could become a surprise $150 million hit.
Jurassic World is the only film opening this week. This is a great sign for this movie, as it shows other studios are convinced it will be such a large hit that they don't want to risk opening a film the same weekend. This isn't that surprising, as the franchise has been very lucrative so far. If the film can get close to $200 million domestically, it will help the franchise cross $1 billion domestically. $200 million is on the low end of expectations. This weekend last year, there was a strong one-two punch with 22 Jump Street and How to Train Your Dragon 2. Combined, those films opened with just over $100 million. Jurassic World could earn the third $100 million opening of the year. Even so, the depth from last year seems a lot better than the depth this year. Maybe 2015 will win in the year-over-year comparison, but I'm not bullish.
Jurassic Park came out more than 20 years ago and when it did, it broke records. It was the first film to open with more than $50 million... although this includes midnight showings and not every source includes those in the weekend numbers. By the time it finished its run, it had the record for highest worldwide gross. It is still in the top twenty on the All-time Chart. Four years after the first film came out, a sequel was released. It didn't live up to its predecessor, but it was still a monster hit. Four years after that, another installment came out and it isn't remembered fondly. It has been more than a decade since that movie came out, so there's some chance the moviegoing audience has moved on. Additionally, there was some talk of a troubled production for the movie. That said, the film has the best buzz of any film opening this month and there's close to a 50/50 chance that the movie will open with more than $100 million and could go as high as $300 million. This isn't as strong the original, even before you take into account inflation and population growth. However, it is strong enough to please the studio.
Week three has the film I'm most interested in seeing this month: Inside Out. Inside Out is the latest film from Pixar and their track record with critics and at the box office is nearly flawless. Only one of their films has not reached $200 million in the past 16 years and that's Cars 2, a film made mainly to support its billion dollar merchandising machine. If Inside Out doesn't at least get to $200 million, I will be personally disappointed. The other movie opening this week is DOPE, a much smaller film that I'm not 100% sure it opening truly wide. It has earned some Film Festival buzz and the early reviews are currently perfect. It still looks like it is too small of a film to even become a midlevel hit. By comparison, this weekend last year, the number one film was Think Like a Man 2, which opened with just under $30 million. If Inside Out doesn't at least double that, I would be shocked.
Shameik Moore plays an African-American high school student who is hoping to get into Harvard. His friends convince him to go to a drug dealer's wild birthday party and this gets him into a world of trouble. DOPE debuted at the Sundance Film Festival this January and was snapped up for $7 million (and a commitment to spend $20 million on marketing). I don't think it will earn $27 million domestically. The early reviews are Award-worthy, but its buzz is really quiet. It is so quiet that I'm not 100% sure that the film will open truly wide. If it does open wide, it has a slim shot at $50 million. On the other hand, if it opens in limited release, it likely won't get to $5 million.
We have four films called Inside Out in our database. The latest is Inside Out, a Pixar film about a young girl, Kaitlyn Dias, who is struggling to adapt to a new town. To make matters worse, her emotions (Joy, Sadness, Fear, Anger, and Disgust) are not working as a team, especially when Sadness and Joy get lost in Kaitlyn's mind. This is a high-concept film, but it has already played at Cannes and the reviews are stunning. At this point, it is the front-runner for the Best Feature-Length Animated Film Oscar. If the film's reviews continue to be this strong, it has a real shot at becoming the biggest hit of the month.
June ends with two wide releases. Ted 2 is a sequel to an R-rated comedy. This is not a rare event, but it is rare for films like this to match their predecessors. Additionally, Seth MacFarlane's most recent film missed expectations. The final film of the month is Max, an inspirational family film. These films almost never become $100 million hits, but perhaps it will become a midlevel hit. Then again, its buzz is quieter than several limited releases that are coming out in June. This weekend last year was the weekend Transformers: Age of Extinction opened with just over $100 million. There's no chance either of the two films opening this week will make that much over the weekend. Combined they won't make that much over the weekend. 2015 is going to get spanked in the year-over-year comparison.
Josh Wiggins stars as a teenage boy whose older brother, Robbie Amell, is fighting in Afghanistan. Robbie works with a canine Marine, Max, but when Robbie is killed in action, Max returns to the United States and refuses to work with any other Marine. Josh decides to take Max in and the pair bond. The buzz for this movie is terrible. Or to be more specific, the buzz isn't bad, it is just truly quiet. Granted, the film has a month to turn things around and things will get better. They have to get better. That said, I really doubt the movie will become a midlevel hit.
Ted marries his girlfriend and wants to have a kid. However, in order to have custody, he has to be declared human by a court of law. Sequels to comedies rarely do as well as their predecessors performed. We've seen a number of examples of this, including Hot Tub Time Machine 2, which came out earlier this year. There are exceptions, like 22 Jump Street. That said, the original Ted earned more than $200 million domestically and more than $500 million worldwide. Even if Ted 2 only earns half of that, it will still be massively profitable. I don't think Ted 2 will drop that far, but there are some who believe this will happen. Failing to reach $100 million isn't out of the question, but I'm not that pessimistic.
Weekend of June 5th, 2015
Entourage
Official Site: EntourageMovie.com
Distributor: Warner Bros.
Release Date: June 3rd, 2015
MPAA Rating: R for pervasive language, strong sexual content, nudity and some drug use.
Source: Based on a TV Show
Major Genre: Comedy
Keywords: Movie Business, Gratuitous Cameos, and more
Directed By: Doug Ellin
Written By: Doug Ellin
Starring: Kevin Connolly, Adrian Grenier, Kevin Dillon, Jerry Ferrara, Jeremy Piven, and others
Production Budget: Reported at $30 million
Box Office Potential: $35 million
Insidious Chapter 3
Official Site: InsidiousMovies.com
Distributor: Focus Features
Release Date: June 5th, 2015
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for violence, frightening images, some language and thematic elements.
Source: Original Screenplay / Sequel
Major Genre: Horror
Keywords: Prequel, Young Child Dealing with the Death of their Parents, Possession, Paranormal Investigator, Sequel Without Stars, Directing Yourself, Screenplay Written by the Star, and more
Directed By: Leigh Whannell
Written By: Leigh Whannell
Starring: Stefanie Scott, Dermot Mulroney, Leigh Whannell, and others
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $10 million
Box Office Potential: $65 million
Spy!
Official Site: FoxMovies.com/Movies/Spy
Distributor: Fox
Release Date: June 5th, 2015
MPAA Rating: R for language throughout, violence, and some sexual content including brief graphic nudity.
Source: Original Screenplay
Major Genre: Comedy
Keywords: Secret Agent, Undercover, Big Break, False Identity, Slow Motion Scene, Surprise Twist, and more
Directed By: Paul Feig
Written By: Paul Feig
Starring: Melissa McCarthy, Jude Law, Jason Statham, Rose Byrne, Allison Janney, Miranda Hart, and others
Production Budget: Reported at $65 million
Box Office Potential: $105 million
Weekend of June 12th, 2015
Jurassic World
Official Site: JurassicWorldMovie.com
Distributor: Universal
Release Date: June 12th, 2015
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for intense sequences of science -fiction violence and peril.
Source: Based on a Book / Sequel
Major Genre: Action
Keywords: Animals Gone Wild, Dinosaurs, Cloning, Development Hell, Delayed Sequel, and more
Directed By: Colin Trevorow
Written By: Colin Trevorow, Derek Connolly, Rick Jaffa, and Amanda Silver, and John Quaintance
Starring: Chris Pratt, Bryce Dallas Howard, Vincent D'Onofrio, and others
Production Budget: Estimated at $150 million to $180 million
Box Office Potential: $250 million
Weekend of June 19th, 2015
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DOPE
Official Site: YouAreDope.com
Distributor: Open Road
Release Date: June 19th, 2014
MPAA Rating: R for language, drug content, sexuality/nudity, and some violence - all involving teens.
Source: Original Screenplay
Major Genre: Comedy
Keywords: Narcotics, Los Angeles, Gangs, Graduation, African-Americans, On the Run, and more
Directed By: Rick Famuyliwa
Written By: Rick Famuyliwa
Starring: Shameik Moore, Tony Revolori, Kiersey Clemons, Blake Anderson, and others
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at under $10 million
Box Office Potential: $20 million
Inside Out
Official Site: Movies.Disney.com/Inside-Out
Distributor: Disney
Release Date: June 19th, 2015
MPAA Rating: PG for mild thematic elements and some action.
Source: Original Screenplay
Major Genre: Adventure
Keywords: New Girl At School, and more
Directed By: Pete Docter
Written By: Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve, and Josh Cooley
Starring: Lewis Black, Mindy Kaling, Bill Hader, Amy Poehler, Phyllis Smith, Kaitlyn Dias, and others
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $200 million
Box Office Potential: $255 million
Weekend of June 26th, 2015
Max
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Official Site: Max-TheMovie.com
Distributor: Warner Bros.
Release Date: June 29th, 2015
MPAA Rating: PG for action violence, peril, brief language and some thematic elements.
Source: Original Screenplay
Major Genre: Adventure
Keywords: War, Afghanistan War, Animal Lead, Death of a Sibling, and more
Directed By: Boaz Yakin
Written By: Boaz Yakin
Starring: Josh Wiggins, Thomas Haden Church, Lauren Graham, Robbie Amell, and others
Production Budget: Estimated at $30 million to $40 million
Box Office Potential: $35 million
Ted 2
Official Site: TedIsReal.com
Distributor: Universal
Release Date: June 29th, 2015
MPAA Rating: R for crude and sexual content, pervasive language, and some drug use.
Source: Original Screenplay / Sequel
Major Genre: Comedy
Keywords: Living Toy, Romance, Unconventional Pregnancies, Courtroom Drama, and more
Directed By: Seth MacFarlane
Written By: Seth MacFarlane
Starring: Mark Wahlberg, Seth MacFarlane, Jessica Barth, and others
Production Budget: Estimated at $50 million to $70 million
Box Office Potential: $150 million
- C.S.Strowbridge
Filed under: Monthly Preview, Jurassic World, Entourage, Inside Out, Ted 2, Spy!, Insidious Chapter 3, Max, Dope, Jurassic Park, Paranormal Activity, Insidious, Jude Law, Mark Wahlberg, Lewis Black, Rose Byrne, Thomas Haden Church, Kevin Connolly, Vincent D'Onofrio, Kevin Dillon, Pete Docter, Jerry Ferrara, Lauren Graham, Adrian Grenier, Bill Hader, Bryce Dallas Howard, Allison Janney, Seth MacFarlane, Melissa McCarthy, Dermot Mulroney, Jeremy Piven, Amy Poehler, Chris Pratt, Jason Statham, Leigh Whannell, Boaz Yakin, Mindy Kaling, Paul Feig, Phyllis Smith, Rick Jaffa, Amanda Silver, Blake Anderson, Colin Trevorrow, Derek Connolly, Jessica Barth, Stefanie Scott, Tony Revolori, Doug Ellin, Kiersey Clemons, Josh Wiggins, Robbie Amell, Rick Famuyliwa, Shameik Moore, Miranda Hart