Weekend Predictions: Will Spy Become McCarthy / Feig's Third Hit?
June 5, 2015
There are three wide releases this week, including one that is already in theaters. The biggest of these three releases is Spy, which is the latest film from Melissa McCarthy and Paul Feig. Both of their previous films crossed $100 million with ease. Insidious Chapter 3 is the third film in the Insidious franchise, but most think it won't be the best. Entourage started out ahead of expectations, but its reviews could cause a quick decline. This weekend last year, The Fault in Our Stars opened with nearly $50 million, while Maleficent landed in second place with more than $30 million. I don't think 2015 will be strong on top, but I think it will have better depth.
Spy is the latest film from Melissa McCarthy and Paul Feig. Their first two films together were Bridesmaids and The Heat, which earned more than $300 million domestically and $500 million worldwide. Originally, I didn't think Spy would match that and would instead barely get to $100 million. Its early reviews were stunning, but I was a little worried they wouldn't maintain that. However, at the moment, they are still 94% positive, or just one percentage point lower than the beginning of the month. Additionally, the buzz as continued to grow and some think a $40 million opening is likely. I'm not that bullish, but I think a $38 million opening is more likely.
The first Insidious earned more than $50 million on a $1.5 million production budget. The second film nearly broke the record for a September opening, but its reviews were weak and I was afraid that would hurt Insidious Chapter 3's box office chances. Fortunately, it appears the reviews are solid and just over the overall positive level. I don't think it will match it predecessor at the box office, but a $29 million opening will still impress the studio, even if it earns less than that during the rest of its run.
San Andreas will be pushed back to third place with $26 million during its second weekend of release. This is half of what it opened with last weekend, but almost enough to get it to $100 million after just ten days of release. Many analysts didn't think the film would get to $100 million in total, so this is great news for the studio and for Dwayne Johnson. It shows he can lead a film that is not part of an existing franchise.
Entourage opened on Wednesday earning first place with $5.37 million. This is more than anticipated at the beginning of the month. However, there's two main reasons to still be concerned. Firstly, midnight showings were reportedly responsible for $2 million of those numbers, so that means its opening day was very front-loaded. Secondly, its reviews have not gotten any better and there are many who think its success will be short-lived. In fact, it could fall more than 50% on Thursday, grow less than 50% on Friday and finish the weekend with just under $20 million. That's not even the worst-case scenario for the film. I'm going with just over $16 million over the weekend for a five-day opening of just under $25 million.
The same three films that were in a logjam for second place last weekend will be in a logjam for fifth place this weekend. Pitch Perfect 2 will likely come out on top with just under $8 million, although Melissa McCarthy and Spy could prove to be stronger than expected direct competition. Mad Max: Fury Road should be next with just over $7 million, while Tomorrowland will likely be right behind with $7 million.
Filed under: Weekend Preview, Mad Max: Fury Road, Entourage, Tomorrowland, Spy!, Insidious Chapter 3, San Andreas, Pitch Perfect 2, Insidious, Dwayne Johnson, Melissa McCarthy, Paul Feig