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Friday Estimates: Inside Out On Top as New Releases are Not Magical

July 4th, 2015

Inside Out

Inside Out earned first place on the Friday chart, just ahead of Jurassic World $12.5 million to $11.8 million. This is bad news, as the new releases will be well behind films that are three and four weeks old respectively. At this pace, Inside Out should top $30 million over the weekend, but barely. Jurassic World will earn about $28 million. This is roughly in line with Friday's predictions. On the other hand...

Terminator: Genisys fell 27% on Thursday and dropped to third place. It did bounce back on Friday up 66%, but that still only gave the film $10.8 million. When July 4th lands on a Saturday, it usually results in significant declines for new releases and holdovers alike. Additionally, this film's Tomatometer Score is just 27% positive. It could lose 40% on Saturday to just $6.6 million and even a 33% increase on Sunday wouldn't be enough to save the weekend. Fortunately, I think it will do a little better than that, down 33% today to $7.2 million and up to $8.7 million on Sunday for a three-day opening of $27 million. There was talk that this film was going to be the first of a trilogy, but unless Genisys is a much bigger hit internationally, this will be the final film in the franchise.

Magic Mike XXL opened in first place on Wednesday with $9.31 million. Things looked great for the film, even if its reviews were merely good. However, it had the worst decline in the top ten on Thursay, falling to fourth place with $5.73 million. It also had the smallest increase on Friday at just 10% to $6.3 million. If this poor performance continues, then the film might not earn $15 million over the three-day weekend. Even at the high end, the film will finish with less than $17 million. On the plus side, it didn't cost a lot to make.


Filed under: Friday Night Box Office, Jurassic World, Inside Out, Terminator: Genisys, Magic Mike XXL, Terminator