Weekend Predictions: Will Minions Top $100 Million?
July 9, 2015
Of the three wide releases this week, only Minions is dominating the box office tracking. Unfortunately, its reviews are nowhere near as strong as they were at the beginning of the month. Even worse, they are twice as good as the reviews for Self/Less and The Gallows. The Gallows should earn a spot in the top five during its opening weekend, but the prospects for Self/Less are not as good. This weekend last year, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes opened with $72.61 million. Minions should crush that number. Also, last year only three films earned more than $10 million over the weekend, while this year, the top five should do the same. 2015 should earn a solid win in the year-over-year comparison.
Minions is the spin-off to the Despicable Me franchise. There are many who think it will become the biggest hit and there are some signs that this will happen. The film has already opened in a number of international markets and has done very well so far. On the down side, the film's Tomatometer Score has fallen from 75% positive to just 54% positive. It seems many critics are saying the minions are better as side characters and can't carry a full film by themselves. That's a shame; however, it likely won't have a huge impact on the film's box office chances this weekend. In fact, it is on track for over $100 million over the weekend. Pie in the sky has the film topping Shrek the Third's animated opening weekend record with more than $120 million. I think $110 million is more likely. Anything less than $100 million will be seen as a little disappointing.
Jurassic World doesn't have to deal with direct competition, so that will allow it to remain in second place with $16 million over the weekend. Its running tally will rise to $590 million, more or less, keeping it on pace to hit $600 million next weekend.
Inside Out has direct competition, so it will likely fall to third place with $15 million over the weekend. The film has already hit $250 million domestically and is on pace to reach $300 million. That's more than enough to be a huge financial hit.
Terminator: Genisys should be next with $13 million. Weak reviews will hurt its legs, but at least the movie is performing better internationally. It could still break even.
The Gallows is a found footage horror movie, which is a genre that is overplayed. Its buzz is weak and its reviews are even worse. There is some good news, namely the lack of direct competition and its likely very low production budget. Look for fifth place with $11 million, which will be enough to cover its entire production budget. It will need to do well internationally if it is to cover its P&A budget.
Self/Less is directed by Tarsem Singh, who has never made a film that has earned overall positive reviews. The Fall did come the closest to that mark, but finished just short. Sadly, it appears Self/Less will be the worst movie in his career. It has a high concept, but delivers little more than standard action scenes. Worse still, the buzz hasn't picked up and there are some who think this will open below the Mendoza Line, which would result in a $4 million opening. Even the high end is barely above $8 million. I'm going with $7 million, which is still far from a good start.
On final note, Amy is expanding to over 300 theaters this weekend and some are saying it has a shot at the top ten. I guess technically that's true, but it would need to maintain a per theater average of over $10,000. Half of that is more likely. That would still be a great weekend for the film and for A24.
Filed under: Weekend Preview, Jurassic World, Minions, Self/Less, Inside Out, Terminator: Genisys, The Gallows, Amy, Despicable Me, Tarsem Singh