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Friday Estimates: Will Slow and Steady Win in the End?

September 5th, 2015

A Walk in the Woods

As expected, The Transporter Refueled earned first place on Friday with $2.4 million. However, bad reviews will lead to a front-loaded weekend, so it won’t last there long. I think the best comparison is The Transporter 2, which was also released on Labor Day long weekend. That film opened with $5.57 million on the Friday, and earned $16.54 million / $20.10 million after three and four days respectively. If The Transporter Refueled had the same internal multiplier, it would make $7.1 million / $8.7 million. However, The Transporter 2 also earned better reviews, so it would be best to shave a few points off, to give The Transporter Refueled just under $7 million over the three day weekend and just over $8 million including Monday. That’s a disappointing start, even for a film that wasn’t expected to do well at the box office.

A Walk in the Woods was more in line with expectations on Friday. It fell 26% on Thursday to $863,000. This is nearly identical to No Escape’s performance on the same day of its run. This similarity continued on Friday, as A Walk in the Woods jumped 155% to $2.2 million, which is just slightly below No Escape’s pace. The holidays should help the film’s legs, giving it just over $8 million over three days and close to $11 million over four days for a six-day opening of $13 million.

Straight Outta Compton earned $2.23 million on Friday and is on pace to pull in just under $12 million over the four-day weekend. This will get be enough to reach the $150 million milestone on Monday. This actually put it slightly below War Room on Friday, so we could have a new number one film this weekend, just not either of the two new releases. It all depends on how well it holds up over the holiday. If so, Sony will have a real reason to celebrate.

- Friday Estimates

Filed under: Friday Night Box Office, A Walk in the Woods, No Escape, Straight Outta Compton, The Transporter Refueled, War Room