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Friday Estimates: Martian Can’t Quite Escape Gravity’s Pull

October 3rd, 2015

The Martian

The Martian earned $2.5 million during its Thursday midnight showings and Fox is estimating a total of $18 million on Friday to easily win at the box office. By comparison, Gravity opened with $1.4 million during its midnight showings and $17.48 million on opening day. Gravity went on to earn $55.79 million opening weekend. Should The Martian have the same internal multiplier, it would pull in $57 million over the weekend, which is just ahead of the record for Biggest October Weekend. However, The Martian’s higher midnight showings and lower Friday-proper numbers likely means it will be a little more front-loaded, and it should pull in $53 million over the weekend. This is almost exactly what was predicted on Friday and it also means Gravity’s October record is likely safe for at least one more year.

Sicario earned $4.28 million on Friday. Its limited release should help its internal multiplier beat industry averages, as will its reviews. On the high end, it might earn close to $15 million over the weekend, but $13 million is a safer bet.

The final new release of the week is The Walk. The best way to describe its box office run before the weekend is “I don't want to talk about it.” Any hope it would bounce back over the weekend ended on Friday, as the film pulled in just $380,000. So far, the film has made about $800,000. I was expecting it to pull in at least that much during its opening day. Even with impressive reviews, there’s almost no chance the film will recover from this point. Its five-day opening will be less than $2 million. That’s not enough to justify a wide expansion next weekend, although those plans are already locked in place—we’ll have to see if any theaters decide not to run the movie based on its dismal start.

On a more positive note, Hotel Transylvania 2 fell 43% Friday-over-Friday to earn $7.5 million for the day. The original film fell 41% Friday-over-Friday on its way to a 36% sophomore decline. This means this film will do a little better than expected and earning around $30 million over the weekend.

- Friday Box Office
- The Martian vs. Gravity comparison chart
- Hotel Transylvania vs. Hotel Transylvania 2

Filed under: Friday Night Box Office, Hotel Transylvania 2, The Martian, The Walk, Sicario