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Weekend Predictions: Will the New Releases do Good, or is There More Grief for the Box Office?

November 5th, 2015

Spectre

I've been working at The Numbers for 13 years. The past two weekends were worst back-to-back weekends that I can recall and the numbers back that up. So thank goodness October is over and November has officially begun and with that, the Holiday Box Office season has begun. There are two potential monster hits opening wide this week: Spectre and The Peanuts Movie. Both are the latest installments of long running franchises. Spectre is the 26th Bond movie (not all of which are part of the official Bond franchise). The Peanuts Movie is based on a comic strip that started officially in the 1950s and has been turned into countless TV cartoons and a handful of TV specials over the years, but it hasn't had a theatrical release for decades. These two films should dominate the market and combined they might earn twice as much as all of the films last weekend earned. There should be huge growth compared to last year, when Big Hero 6 and Interstellar earned just over $100 million combined. We've had a really bad couple of weeks, but things should really turn around this weekend.

Spectre is the 26th Bond film, but some of the films are not part of the official franchise. The most recent release was Skyfall, which earned more than 93% positive reviews and pulled in more than $1 billion worldwide. Most people think Spectre has no shot at matching those numbers. This is certainly true with the reviews, as the film's Tomatometer Score is 62% positive. That's still good for a wide release, but a major decline from the previous film. On the other hand, Spectre has already opened internationally and it topped Skyfall's opening in the U.K. If it can do the same here, we are looking at a greater than $90 million opening. Most people think that's overly optimistic, but I'm going with $91 million.

The Peanuts Movie is a movie that is going to be sold nearly entirely on nostalgia. As long as the movie didn't mess with the characters from the comic strip, it is likely to be loved by a lot of moviegoers. Fortunately, all the reports say they didn't mess with the formula at all and most critics love the film as a result. I have seen a few critics complain that they stick to the formula too much and by not trying to do more, the movie is merely good and not great. However, after the last two weeks, merely good sounds amazing to me. Additionally, it has been more than a month since Hotel Transylvania 2 and even if Goosebumps helped elevate some of the demand, families will really want to see something new. Because of this, there's a chance the film will open with $55 million, but $50 million is more likely. That's still an excellent result and the reviews and target audience should give it long legs.

The Martian will be in a distant third place with just over $6 million this weekend. It will get to $200 million and could get there before falling out of the top five.

Goosebumps will be next with just over $5 million. It should earn a solid profit, if it does well internationally. So far it hasn't appeared in most major markets, so it is hard to tell how it will do in the end.

Bridge of Spies will round out the top five with just under $5 million. It too is on pace to earn a profit, if it can do well internationally. And again, it is too soon to tell.

Filed under: Weekend Preview, The Peanuts Movie, Hotel Transylvania 2, Spectre, Goosebumps, The Martian, Bridge of Spies, James Bond