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Weekend Predictions: Will the New Releases get any Love?

November 11th, 2015

Love the Coopers

Last week the box office bounced back in an impressive fashion. However, this week it will very likely slump back down again. There are only two truly wide releases coming out this week, The 33 and Love the Coopers, neither of which are expected to be hits. In fact, there's a good chance neither of them will top $10 million over the weekend. This will leave Spectre and The Peanuts Movie on top of the charts once again, while we will have a one or two other holdovers in the top five, depending on how well the new wide releases match low expectations. This weekend last year Dumb and Dumber To opened with $36.11 million. This is more than either new release will earn this weekend, or in total. This might be more than both new releases will finish with combined. Unless the holdovers hold on really well, 2015 will lose in the year-over-year comparison, but it should be close.

Spectre should have a relatively easy time remaining in first place during its second weekend of release. It had a huge lead last weekend and there's no direct competition coming out this week. It will likely fall a little faster than Skyfall did, which fell 53%. Lets go with 55%. That will still leave it with close to $32 million over the weekend pushing its running tally well past $100 million.

The Peanuts Movie is a family film, it has stellar reviews, and it has no direct competition. That should add up to a very small decline this coming weekend. A sub-40% sophomore stint drop-off would give the film $27 million over the weekend and this seems likely. It might fall to $25 million, or it could challenge Spectre for first place with $30 million. Regardless, it is doing well so far.

The 33 is a disaster movie based on real-life events. This is the kind of film that Award Season voters usually love; however, its reviews are weak and have been getting weaker. Despite this, it appears to be the stronger of the two wide releases and should land in third place with $8 million. There are some who are more bullish than this and are predicting an opening north of $10 million, but that's too optimistic for me.

Love the Coopers is harder to judge, as there are still no reviews. The buzz is no louder than The 33's buzz is, nor do I think its Tomatometer Score will be any better. There is a chance it will earn third place, if the film turns out to be better than the buzz, or if audiences here don't feel a connection to the Chilean miners portrayed in The 33. However, I think fourth place with $7 million is a safer bet.

The Martian should round out the top five with $6 million over the weekend pushing it past $200 million in the process.

There is one other new release that should reach the top ten: My All-American. This is the latest release by Clarius Entertainment, which hasn't had a hit so far and I don't think this film will end the slump. The film has no reviews, no buzz, and almost no chance of being a box office hit. In fact, it appears to be headed below the Mendoza Line at just under $3 million in 1,500 theaters.

Filed under: Weekend Preview, My All-American, The Peanuts Movie, Spectre, The Martian, Love the Coopers, The 33