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Friday Estimates: Riding High...ish

January 16th, 2016

Ride Along 2

As expected, Ride Along 2 earned first place on Friday, but it was a little softer than anticipated. The film earned $12 million during its first day of release, which is 17% less than Ride Along opened with back in 2014. Because this film is a sequel and the reviews are so weak, it will likely have a smaller internal multiplier. Additionally, Ride Along 2 cost more than the first film cost to make. That said, it still only cost $40 million and it looks like it will earn close to that much during its four-day weekend. There will be a part three of the franchise. They are just too profitable not to make another.

It's a good week for The Revenant, as it picked up 12 Oscars Nominations and then held strong on Friday. The film earned $9.3 million on Friday, which represents a 35% drop-off from last Friday. It should bounce back on Saturday and with the holidays earn $35 million over four days. This is close enough to Ride Along 2's estimates that it could come out on top over the weekend. It is on pace to hit $100 million with ease, but it cost $135 million to make, so $100 million domestically won't be enough. A few Oscar wins will make $150 million likely, while riding an Oscar wave could lift the film to $200 million.

Star Wars: The Force Awakens was pushed into third place with $6.3 million, but will still top $30 million during the four-day weekend. It will reach $850 million over the weekend, very likely early tomorrow. If we assume it gets there on Sunday, it will have taken just 31 days to reach that milestone. By comparison, before this movie came out, the record for Fastest to $600 million was 36 days. The Force Awakens hit $850 million faster than any other film hit $600 million. Wow.

13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi only managed $5.9 million on Friday putting it on pace to earn close to $20 million over the four-day weekend. The film cost $50 million to make, so unless it has long legs or a better than expected international run, it will struggle to break even.

The final new wide release of the week was Norm of the North, which only manged 6th place with $1.58 million. It won't miss the Mendoza Line during the weekend, but a four-day opening of $8 million is still a bomb. We are talking nearly a Strange Magic level bomb.

- Friday Box Office

- Ride Along 2 Comparisons
- 13 Hours Comparisons
- Norm of the North Comparisons

Filed under: Friday Estimates, Ride Along