Follow us on

Weekend Predictions: Will Fifth Wave Open in the Top Five?

January 21st, 2016

The Fifth Wave

Three wide releases are coming out this week, all of which are expected to earn similar openings. None of which are expected to compete for the top five. The 5th Wave is the latest Young Adult Adaptation and as I'm writing this at about 10 am on Thursday, it is still the only new release with any reviews. Dirty Grandpa is the widest release of the week, but with no reviews, it is hard to judge how well it will do. Finally there's The Boy. If it can match The Forest, I'm sure STX Entertainment will be happy. The weakness in the new releases doesn't mean we won't have a new number one film, as The Revenant seems poised to climb to first place over the weekend. This weekend last year, American Sniper remained dominant with nearly $65 million. It's a near certainty that all three new releases won't make that much this year. There's a chance the top five combined won't make that much this year. 2016 is going to lose in the year-over-year comparison.

The Revenant has climbed into first place on the daily chart and it is very unlikely the new releases will be able to knock it out of top spot. In fact, it might earn double the best of the new releases. Unfortunately, this still means the film will only make a hair over $20 million this weekend. It did crack $100 million on Wednesday, so it is closing in on its production budget.

Poor reviews and the Sequel Effect should result in a somewhat steep decline for Ride Along 2. The first film fell just shy of 50% during its sophomore stint and if the second did the same, it would earn just under $18 million. That is the high end of expectations here. Just over $16 million is probably more likely.

Star Wars: The Force Awakens should be close behind with just under $16 million. The film remains on pace to get to $900 million domestically, but it will likely have to wait till after it drops out of the top five to get there.

All three new releases should earn between $10 million and $12 million. I think The 5th Wave will start the fastest, but that's not saying much. The film's Tomatometer Score has fluctuated from a low of 20% to a high of 40% over the course of the past couple of days. It's currently sitting at 31% positive, which is sadly typical for a January release. The film has already opened internationally, so we have more information to look at than with most new releases. The film didn't perform particularly well in the two major markets it debuted in. If it does as well here as it did in Germany, the film will make about $10 million. If it does as well here as it did in Australia, it will bring in about $15 million this weekend. The low end seems more likely. I'm going with just under $12 million.

It seems likely that The Boy will start out the best on Friday, but will fade the fastest, as horror films tend to be more front-loaded than most movies. The first couple of reviews have trickled in and they are negative. Not only are they negative, they are strongly negative. Both critics complain that the movie is not scary and is too predictable. That's a deadly combination for a horror film. Look for $11 million, which isn't quite as much as The Forest opened with, but is enough for a low-budget horror film to be considered a success.

Dirty Grandpa is the widest new release of the week, but it doesn't have much in the way of buzz, while there are still no reviews on Rotten Tomatoes to judge the movie. The film's two leading actors have had a number of hits, but they have also had a number of misses. Inconsistent is the best way to describe their recent box office performances. Maybe it will be the best of the three new releases, but I think it will finish outside of the top five with just under $11 million.

- The 5th Wave Comparisons
- The Boy Comparisons
- Dirty Grandpa Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Star Wars Ep. VII: The Force Awakens, Ride Along 2, The Forest, The Revenant, The 5th Wave, Dirty Grandpa, The Boy, Robert De Niro, Zac Efron