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2015 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Supporting Actor

February 24th, 2016

Creed

With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Like the Best Supporting Actress, Best Supporting Actor is a two-horse race, making it one of the more competitive categories of the ones we are going to look at.

(Note: All previous awards listed are only for acting and not other categories. However, they are for supporting and lead acting. Previous awards and nominations are not for TV roles, on the other hand. )

Best Supporting Actor

Christian Bale for The Big Short
Tomatometer Score: 88% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Two SAGs, Golden Globe, and BAFTA
Movie's Previous Major Wins: None
Actor's Previous Major Nominations: Two Oscars, Two Golden Globes, Two BAFTAs, Four SAGs, and One Independent Spirit Awards
Actor's Previous Major Wins: One Oscar, One Golden Globe, Two SAG, and One Independent Spirit Awards
Notes: The Big Short is one of three films that have a legitimate shot at winning the Best Picture Oscar, so there's a chance Christian Bale will be carried in a wave. It is a very, very small chance.

Tom Hardy for The Revenant
Tomatometer Score: 82% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: None
Movie's Previous Major Wins: None
Actor's Previous Major Nominations: None
Actor's Previous Major Wins: None
Notes: At one point, it looked like The Revenant would dominate Oscar night. That's no longer the conventional wisdom. Because of this, awards where the film used to be a long shot are very likely out of reach. In fact, Tom Hardy might be the longest of the long shots in this category.

Mark Ruffalo for Spotlight
Tomatometer Score: 96% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: SAG, Golden Globe, and BAFTA
Movie's Previous Major Wins: BAFTA
Actor's Previous Major Nominations: Two Oscars, Three Golden Globes, Two BAFTAs, Three SAGs, and Three Independent Spirit Awards
Actor's Previous Major Wins: One Independent Spirit Awards
Notes: This is the second year in a row and the third time in his career that Mark Ruffalo has earned an Oscar nomination. He very likely won't win, but these nominations will likely help him win some time in the future.

Mark Rylance for Bridge of Spies
Tomatometer Score: 91% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: SAG, BAFTA, and Golden Globe
Movie's Previous Major Wins: None
Actor's Previous Major Nominations: None
Actor's Previous Major Wins: None
Notes: This is a two-way race between Mark Rylance and Sylvester Stallone. Stallone seems to be in the lead, but Bridge of Spies is more Oscar-friendly, so that might put Mark Rylance over the top. I still think he's an underdog, but it could be close.

Sylvester Stallone for Creed
Tomatometer Score: 95% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Golden Globes
Movie's Previous Major Wins: Golden Globes
Actor's Previous Major Nominations: One Oscar and One BAFTA
Actor's Previous Major Wins: None
Notes: Sylvester Stallone earned his first Oscar nearly 40 years ago. If he were to win this year, it would be a major feel-good story. Additionally, he did win the Golden Globe this year, so it is not like the Oscar would be out of left field. On the other hand, Creed is not your typical Oscar-bait movie.

Conclusion: Idris Elba should have been the favorite, but he wasn't even nominated. This leaves Mark Rylance and Sylvester Stallone in a close race. I'm going with Stallone as the favorite, but again, it is a close race.


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Filed under: Awards Season, Bridge of Spies, The Revenant, Spotlight, The Big Short, Creed, Christian Bale, Idris Elba, Tom Hardy, Mark Ruffalo, Mark Rylance, Sylvester Stallone