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2015 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Picture

February 27th, 2016

The Revenant

With our annual Oscar Prediction contest closing at noon tomorrow, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try to figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. This morning, we get to the final category, Best Picture. The film I think should win, Inside Out, wasn't even nominated. Of the movies on this list, I think The Martian is the best. If you look at the odds makers, it isn’t even in the top three. I’m going to be doubly disappointed tomorrow.

Best Picture

The Big Short
Tomatometer Score: 73% Positive
Total Oscar Nominations: Five
Golden Globe Nominations: Four
Golden Globe Wins: None
BAFTA Nominations: Five
BAFTA Wins: One
Guild Nominations: Five
Guild Wins: Two
Notes: This film is one of only three films that have a real chance at winning the Best Picture Oscar. Its win at the PGAs was arguably the biggest shock of Awards Season. I would love for it to win, but that’s not very likely.

Bridge of Spies
Tomatometer Score: 91% Positive
Total Oscar Nominations: Six
Golden Globe Nominations: One
Golden Globe Wins: None
BAFTA Nominations: Nine
BAFTA Wins: One
Guild Nominations: Three
Guild Wins: None
Notes: This film is Oscar-bait. There’s no real argument about that. It has done well when it comes to compiling a list of nominations. However, it hasn’t done so well when it comes to turning those nominations into wins. Its chances of winning the big prize on Oscar night are nearly zero.

Brooklyn
Tomatometer Score: 98% Positive
Total Oscar Nominations: Three
Golden Globe Nominations: One
Golden Globe Wins: None
BAFTA Nominations: Six
BAFTA Wins: One
Guild Nominations: Two
Guild Wins: None
Notes: Brooklyn has not done particularly well during Awards Season, at least for a film that earned 98% positive reviews. Those reviews suggest it has a shot at winning the big prize, but its lack of previous wins suggests it doesn’t. The latter is a bigger indicator.

Mad Max: Fury Road
Tomatometer Score: 97% Positive
Total Oscar Nominations: Ten
Golden Globe Nominations: Two
Golden Globe Wins: None
BAFTA Nominations: Seven
BAFTA Wins: Four
Guild Nominations: Three
Guild Wins: One
Notes: This film has better reviews that the favorite to win and the two others long shots that have a shot. I think is should win for directing, because this is a technical marvel. However, its strengths outside the technical realm are not as strong.

The Martian
Tomatometer Score: 92% Positive
Total Oscar Nominations: Seven
Golden Globe Nominations: Three
Golden Globe Wins: Two
BAFTA Nominations: Six
BAFTA Wins: None
Guild Nominations: Three
Guild Wins: None
Notes: Out of all of the films on this list, this is the one I like the most. It has no chance of winning.

The Revenant
Tomatometer Score: 83% Positive
Total Oscar Nominations: Twelve
Golden Globe Nominations: Four
Golden Globe Wins: Three
BAFTA Nominations: Eight
BAFTA Wins: Five
Guild Nominations: Three
Guild Wins: Two
Notes: It is my opinion that The Revenant is doing as well as it has during Awards Season because of how difficult the shoot was, not because of the quality of the final product. Obviously it isn’t a bad movie and its reviews are 83% positive, but I think in a decade people will wonder why it won the Best Picture Oscar.

Room
Tomatometer Score: 94% Positive
Total Oscar Nominations: Four
Golden Globe Nominations: Three
Golden Globe Wins: One
BAFTA Nominations: Two
BAFTA Wins: One
Guild Nominations: Two
Guild Wins: One
Notes: This film has not done particularly well during Awards Season, at least not compared to the average film on this year’s list of Best Picture nominees. On the other hand, there are a couple of other films on this list that will likely go home empty-handed on Oscar night, while this one is nearly guaranteed to win an Oscar for Best Lead Actress.

Spotlight
Tomatometer Score: 96% Positive
Total Oscar Nominations: Six
Golden Globe Nominations: Three
Golden Globe Wins: None
BAFTA Nominations: Three
BAFTA Wins: One
Guild Nominations: Five
Guild Wins: Two
Notes: This film has a shot at winning the Best Picture Oscar. It is one of only three that has a legitimate shot. That said, “legitimate” in this case means about a 10% chance of winning. I wouldn’t bet on it.

Conclusion: Inside Out should be the favorite to win, but it wasn’t even nominated. I really want The Martian to win, but The Revenant will very likely take home the top prize on Oscar night.


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Filed under: Awards Season, Mad Max: Fury Road, Inside Out, The Martian, Bridge of Spies, The Revenant, Spotlight, Room, Brooklyn, The Big Short