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Weekend Estimates: Deadpool Enjoys Third Weekend Win

February 28th, 2016

Deadpool

This is shaping up to be a triumphant weekend for 20th Century Fox. The studio will take three out of the top five spots at the box office this weekend, with Deadpool claiming a third straight win with $31.5 million, taking it to a huge (for the time of year) $285.6 million by close of business on Sunday. The studio’s Kung Fu Panda 3 will be down just 28% to $9 million in third place, for $128.5 million to date, and their new release Eddie the Eagle will land in fifth with a slightly disappointing, but not horrible, $6.3 million. Oh, and The Revenant is still in the top ten in its tenth weekend in release, and is the hot favorite to win Best Picture at the Oscars this evening (more on that in a moment).

All of which is a roundabout way of saying that Gods of Egypt had a horrible opening weekend…

The sword and sandal epic will post a dismal $14 million opening, a figure that puts it in line with Pompeii’s $10.3 million debut two years ago. That film ended up with $23 million at the domestic box office, and Gods of Egypt looks set for no more than $30 million to $35 million in total—something close to its domestic marketing costs. The fact that these films do better overseas—Pompeii managed $85 internationally, and Exodus: Gods and Kings hit $203 million compared to $65 million domestically—does give Gods a ray of hope, but topping its $140 million production budget at the worldwide box office looks like it will be a challenge, and the film seems certain to suffer a heavy loss.

Also opening wide this weekend, Triple 9 will post about $6.1 million, according to Open Road’s Sunday morning projection. With a production budget of $20 million, and a relatively modest marketing spend, the film won’t be a financial triumph, but is performing decently enough. The same can be said of Eddie the Eagle, which was reportedly budgeted at $23 million.

The rest of the chart this weekend is peppered with Oscar nominees that are getting nice box office boosts ahead of the awards tonight.

Son of Saul is getting the biggest bump, up 85% ahead of an expected win as best foreign language film. Room is up 58%, and now has $13.5 million at the box office. Anomalisa is up 56%, although it is considered a rank outsider for animated feature (perhaps its boost is a clue that we might see a surprise in that category?). Spotlight is up 51% this weekend, and is nearing $40 million at the domestic box office—far behind The Revenant’s $170 million, but still a very solid performance. The final films in the plus column: Carol is up 23%, and The Big Short up 12%. In the negative column is The Revenant, down 2% (although this is probably an indication that most people interested in the Oscars have already seen it); Brooklyn, down 4%; The Danish Girl, down 10%; and The Hateful Eight, down 26%.

What does all this portend for the Oscars this evening? Well, moviegoers aren’t the Academy, so maybe nothing. But if people are tending to watch films they think have a good chance of winning, then the consensus seems to be that Brooklyn, The Danish Girl and The Hateful Eight are falling away from contention for major awards. We’ll have a full breakdown of predictions from readers of The Numbers when our Predict the Oscars contest closes at noon today, Pacific Time.

- Weekend estimates

- Deadpool comparisons
- Gods of Egypt comparisons
- Triple 9 comparisons
- Eddie the Eagle comparisons

Bruce Nash,

Filed under: Weekend Box Office, Deadpool, Kung Fu Panda 3, Gods of Egypt, The Revenant, The Hateful Eight, Triple 9, The Big Short, Anomalisa, Eddie the Eagle, Saul fia