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Weekend Predictions: Throwing Shade on the New Releases

June 2nd, 2016

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows

It's one of those weekends where the bigger the release is, the worse its reviews are. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows is the only film expected to top $100 million domestically and its reviews are just 31% positive. Me Before You is expected to be a midlevel hit, but its reviews have slipped to 47% positive. Meanwhile, most analysts think Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping will bomb, but its reviews are by far the best at 81% positive. This weekend last year, Spy opened with just under $30 million. Out of the Shadows should top that, while both years have similar depth. Hopefully 2016 will win the year-over-year comparison.

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows is the sequel to Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles. That film earned nearly $200 million domestically, but only earned 22% positive reviews. Even the audience reaction was 51% positive on Rotten Tomatoes. Its box office virtually guaranteed a sequel, but its critical performance virtually guarantees the sequel won't do as well at the box office. There are some who think it will bomb opening with less than half of what TMNT opened with, but I think that's a little harsh. The reviews are better, but are still only 30% positive. That's not fatal for a mindless action flick, but that's hardly praise-worthy. I'm going with just over $40 million during its opening weekend, which is still lower than it needs to be. On the other hand, it should do well internationally.

X-Men: Apocalypse is a sequel and a comic book movie. That adds up to some serious Fanboy Effect. Furthermore, it opened on a holiday and its reviews are just 48% positive, which will further hurt its legs. A 60% drop-off is practically guaranteed, while a nearly 70% drop-off isn't out of the question. This puts the film's box office chances this weekend at between $26 million and just over $20 million. I'm going with $23 million. On a more positive note, it will hit $100 million on Friday, so there is some reason to celebrate.

For a few days, I thought Me Before You had a shot at a $20 million opening. Its reviews rose above the 60% positive level, which I was not expecting. However, since then it has slipped to 47% positive, which is what I was expecting. This is perfectly fine for a tearjerker. While critics tend to dislike films that are emotionally manipulative, this is practically a selling point for this film's target audience. That said, the target audience isn't known to rush out during the film's opening day, or even opening weekend. I'm predicting $17 million during its opening weekend and nearly $50 million in total.

Alice Through the Looking Glass should be next with roughly $12 million. This is a greater than 50% decline, which is very sharp for a family film; however, the reviews and the post-holiday weekend make that very likely.

The Angry Birds Movie should round out the top five with $10 million. Its running tally will rise to $88 million, putting it just over a week away from the century mark.

The final wide release of the week is Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping. The mockumentary is earning excellent reviews, but the buzz just isn't there. There are some who think it will make less than Hot Rod made back in 2007. I really hope that's not the case, but the negativity is hard to ignore. Look for an opening weekend of $8 million, which will leave the film just out of the top five.

- Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows Comparisons
- Me Before You Comparisons
- Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, The Angry Birds Movie, Alice Through the Looking Glass, X-Men: Apocalypse, Me Before You, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows, Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping