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Friday Estimates: Dory Finds Success with $54.95 Million

June 18th, 2016


Finding Dory led the way on Friday with $54.95 million. This is the best opening day for a Pixar film and the best opening day for an animated film. Simply, a fantastic start. Our prediction of $129 million seems woefully inadequate. It is a family-friendly film with 95% positive reviews and a CinemaScore of A, so it should have good legs, meaning a $140 million is the new target. This would also be a record for an animated film and put it in the top twenty opening weekends. If this calculation holds true, then getting to $400 million domestically will be an easy feat. Hitting $500 million isn’t out of the question.

Central Intelligence opened in second place with $13.01 million, which is in line with expectations, more or less. The film’s reviews returned to 67% positive, after a slight dip on Thursday night, while its CinemaScore was a solid A-. If the film can have a similar internal multiplier to Ride Along 2 had earlier this year or San Andreas earned last year, then it should earn between $36 million and $39 million. There’s not a lot of direct competition over the coming weeks, so the film has a shot at $100 million, if it opens within the high end of that range. Since its audience reaction is good and it isn’t a sequel, I’m cautiously optimistic it will get there.

The Conjuring 2: The Enfield Poltergeist fell 67% from last Friday, earning $5.43 million last night, which will give it about $17 million over the weekend. This is perfectly fine for the average horror movie, but it clearly won’t have the same legs as its predecessor, but getting to $100 million is still well within reach. On a side note, Warner Bros. is already working on another spin-off, this time based on The Nun.

Now You See Me 2 also fell 67% to $2.81 million, putting it on pace for a $9 million weekend. This movie needed long legs to break even, but that’s not going to happen. If it can recover over the coming weeks, then perhaps it can reach $70 million domestically, but that’s not great for a film that reportedly cost $90 million to make. It its international numbers can’t save it, then it will be another money-loser for Lionsgate and they can’t afford another dud this year.

Warcraft was just destroyed on Friday, earning a mere $1.93 million. That's down 81% from its opening Friday. It will bounce back a little over the weekend, but not by enough to really matter. It should earn about $6 million during the full weekend for a ten-day total of $37 million. However, it will be out of theaters before it hits $50 million. Universal’s share of this figure will be less than they spent on advertising.

Friday Box Office

- Finding Dory Comparisons
- Central Intelligence Comparisons

Filed under: Friday Estimates