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Weekend Predictions: Dory Looks to Complete Threepeat, while BFG looks for a Big Opening

June 30th, 2016


It's the first weekend of July, which means I should probably start the monthly preview. (I'm kidding. Although, I did have a computer crash this morning and lost a few hours of work. Save early. Save often.) Like last week, Finding Dory should earn first place over the weekend, while there are a trio of wide releases hoping to take advantage of the holiday. The BFG is the biggest in terms of box office potential. The Legend of Tarzan is the biggest in terms of production budget. Finally, The Purge: Election Year is the biggest in terms of profitability. This weekend last year, Inside Out climbed over Jurassic World for first place, as both films earned just under $30 million, Finding Dory will make almost that much combined.

Finding Dory should have no trouble earning first place over the weekend. It might dominate the box office this weekend. The film topped $300 million on Tuesday, becoming the fastest animated film to get to that milestone. The previous record was 18 days, set by Shrek 2 and later matched by Toy Story 3. It earned more on Tuesday and Wednesday than Jurassic World earned during the same point in its run. Look for $42 million over the three-day weekend and $51 million including July 4th. This will push its running tally past $380 million, which is more than I thought the film would make in total. It will get to $400 million before next weekend and that might not be the last major milestone for the film.

The BFG is based on a book by Roald Dahl and directed by Steven Spielberg. I should be hearing more buzz about this movie. The reviews are good, but not great. One of the complaints is about the target demographic, as critics think it is aimed a little younger than it should be. The darker edge of the book is missing. Look for a $24 million / $29 million opening weekend, but upcoming direct competition will shorten its legs.

The Purge: Election Year is the third film in the franchise and it finally goes to where it makes the most sense, the presidential election. Some think the timely nature of the film will help it at the box office. This makes sense, but there's also a chance it will backfire and people are turned off by the more overt political nature. The reviews are good, but not great, so they will neither help nor hurt its box office chances. I'm going with $26 million over the four-day weekend, which is more than twice what it cost to make.

The final wide release of the week is The Legend of Tarzan, which reportedly cost $180 million to make. If this is accurate, then Warner Bros. could be in a bit of a panic, because the buzz here is really bad. There appears to be no real audience for this movie and the reviews are not going to convince those on the fence to rush to theaters. I'm going with $25 million over the four-day weekend and there's no way the studio will be happy with that result.

Independence Day: Resurgence will be pushed into fifth place with $23 million. That will lift its running tally to $79 million keeping it on pace to reach $100 million.

- The BFG Comparisons
- The Purge: Election Year Comparisons
- The Legend of Tarzan Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Finding Dory, Independence Day: Resurgence, The Legend of Tarzan, The BFG, The Purge: Election Year, The Purge, Steven Spielberg, Roald Dahl