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Weekend Predictions: Will the New Releases get Busted?

July 14th, 2016

Ghostbusters

This weekend is rather sparse when it comes to wide releases. Ghostbusters opens this weekend and its buzz and reviews are better than expected and it could be a huge hit. On the other hand, The Secret Life of Pets opened with more than $100 million last weekend and unless it falls more than 50% this weekend, it will remain in first place. That doesn’t feel likely at this point. On the other hand, The Infiltrator opened on Wednesday, but in less than 2,000 theaters. Its reviews are barely in the overall positive range, so it likely won’t be a major factor over the weekend. This weekend last year, Ant-Man opened in first place, pushing Minions into second place. Meanwhile, Trainwreck was a solid midlevel hit. I just don’t see 2016 being able to top that depth.

The Secret Life of Pets opened with $104.35 million during its opening weekend. As a family film earning great reviews, and without direct competition from the new releases, the film shouldn’t fall more than 50%. It could be really close, on the other hand. Finding Dory opened better and had better reviews and it fell 46% during its sophomore stint. There is a chance that Pets will make more than $60 million over the weekend; however, I think $54 million is a more likely result, putting it on pace to top $200 million over the weekend. That’s a fantastic run so far.

Ghostbusters had to deal with a lot of hatred online, essentially from the first time the film was announced as a remake rather than a sequel to the 1984 classic. The vitriol was kicked into high gear when the cast was announced and it was revealed to be a gender-flipped remake. Add in a first trailer that wasn’t up to par, to be kind, and almost everyone thought this film would be a mess. However, the reviews are in and it has been certified fresh on Rotten Tomatoes. I was just hoping it would top the sequel’s reviews, so this is good news. Will this have a big impact on the box office? I’ve seen predictions based on the tracking ranging from the mid $30 million range to just over $60 million. ... That’s a wide range of predictions. I think the higher end is more likely than the lower end and I’m going with just under $50 million. It likely won’t match its $154 million production budget domestically, but it should top the original worldwide, meaning it will break even sometime on the home market.

There will be a close two-way race for third place between Finding Dory and The Legend of Tarzan at between $11 million and $12 million each. This will help Finding Dory extend its lead on top of the 2016 domestic chart. Meanwhile, it will help The Legend of Tarzan reach the century mark.

Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates should round out the top five with just under $9 million. It will fall less than 50% despite its mixed reviews, because there’s no direct competition to deal with.

Finally there’s The Infiltrator, which opened on Wednesday, but failed to make much of an impact, landing in ninth place with $770,000 in 1,600 theaters. Its reviews have been floating around the 60% positive mark for the past couple of days, so this will neither hurt nor help its word-of-mouth. Best case scenario, most people didn’t know the film opened on Wednesday and it shows serious growth over the weekend to earn close to $6 million from Friday through Sunday. Worst case, people didn’t care that it opened early and it makes less than $5 million over 5 days. I think the low end is more likely and I’m going with $4 million over the weekend and just over $5 million over five.

- Ghostbusters Comparisons
- The Infiltrator Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Ghostbusters, Finding Dory, The Secret Life of Pets, The Legend of Tarzan, The Infiltrator, Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates