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Friday Estimates: Bourne doesn’t have the Ultimate Opening Friday, but still on Pace for $60 million Weekend

July 30th, 2016

Jason Bourne

Jason Bourne dominated the Friday box office chart, earning $22.71 million. I’ve seen reports that this is the biggest opening day for a Matt Damon movie, but The Bourne Ultimatum did better with $24.67 million. That film also earned much better reviews than this film did, so it likely won’t have the same legs. It did earn an A- with CinemaScore, so that will help a little. It will likely have similar legs to Star Trek Beyond. Beyond did earn better reviews, but Star Trek has a bigger fanboy factor, which hurt its legs. That will give the film $60 million over the weekend, more or less.

Bad Moms did better than expected with $9.6 million, which is the biggest opening day for the STX Entertainment. It is the only wide release of the week to earn overall positive reviews and the only film to earn an A with CinemaScore. This isn’t quite a Trainwreck-level performance, but it will easily become the biggest hit in the studio’s short history and everyone involved should be happy with its performance.

Star Trek Beyond was pushed into third place with $6.75 million. Its Friday-over-Friday decline was just shy of 70%, which is troubling, especially for a film with 83% positive reviews. It will bounce back over the weekend, but even so, it will fall more than 60% to just under $23 million. That will be enough to reach $100 million on Sunday, while it will finish its domestic run with close to $150 million. Assuming it can do as well internationally, it will break even on the home market. It also has the task of Brand Management, as there is a new Star Trek TV show coming out, so there are more ways than just ticket / DVD sales for this film to earn a profit.

The Secret Life of Pets held on better than expected with $5.53 million on Friday and close to $19 million over the weekend. It won’t quite get to $300 million by the end of business on Sunday, but it will get there soon. In fact, it looks like it will top Batman v Superman on the domestic yearly chart.

Lights Out held on better than horror films usually do, earning $3.54 million on Friday, and the film is on pace for $11 million over the weekend. There is already a sequel in the works. This should surprise no one.

Ice Age: Collision Course should also earn $11 million over the weekend, or come very close to it, after earning $3.23 million on Friday. This will likely be the end of the franchise.

Nerve placed seventh on Friday with $3.2 million putting it on pace for $10 million over the weekend. Its reviews slipped below the overall positive level, but it did earn an A- from CinemaScore. Its five-day opening will be over $15 million, which is great for a film that cost just $20 million to make.

Ghostbusters landed in eighth place on Friday with $2.91 million, giving it a 15-day total of $99.28 million. It will earn close to $10 million over the weekend and will finish with $125 million, which is more than we predicted at the beginning of the month.

- Friday Box Office Chart

- Jason Bourne Comparisons
- Bad Moms Comparisons
- Nerve Comparisons

Filed under: Friday Estimates, Matt Damon