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Friday Estimates: Sausage Squad

August 13th, 2016

Sausage Party

Sausage Party actually earned first place on Friday with $13.5 million, putting it just ahead of Suicide Squad. That lead won’t last, as new releases almost never has an internal multiplier as big as holdovers do. The film does have excellent reviews, but only earned a B CinemaScore. This could mean critics liked the film more than its target audience and it will have short legs. Or it could mean it is a more niche market release and it will be a cult classic in a few years. Regardless, a $33 million opening is in the works, which is excellent for a film that cost $19 million to make.

Suicide Squad fell faster than expected on Friday, down all the way to $13.35 million, and off almost 80% from last Friday, which is just two percentage points better than Batman v Superman’s Friday-over-Friday decline. It should recover over the weekend, but we are still looking at a weekend haul of just over $43 million, which is barely more than Guardians of the Galaxy earned during its second weekend of release. Suicide Squad had a nearly $40 million lead over Guardians after one weekend and now its daily numbers are nearly identical. By next weekend, the two films’ running tallies will begin to converge and Suicide Squad might not come out ahead in the end, despite its massive early lead.

Pete’s Dragon struggled with $6.96 million over the weekend. It did earn amazing reviews and earned an A from CinemaScore. This, plus its target demographic, should help it earn long legs, both over the weekend and during its entire run. Look for an opening weekend of $21 million, which puts it on pace to match its $65 million production budget during its domestic box office run.

Florence Foster Jenkins couldn’t match its reviews, earning just $2.08 million on Friday on its way to a $6 million opening weekend. It should have better legs than most films, due in part to its reviews and its A- CinemaScore, but also due to its target audience. However, it going to need an Oscar nomination for Meryl Streep for Best Actress and in half-a-dozen other categories to make up for its box office performance.

One final note, Hell or High Water earned $194,000 in 32 theaters on Friday. That wouldn’t be a bad weekend total. It’s fantastic for an opening day.

- Pete’s Dragon Comparisons
- Sausage Party Comparisons
- Florence Foster Jenkins Comparisons

Filed under: Friday Estimates, Meryl Streep