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Weekend Estimates: Don’t Breathe Launches with Impressive $26.1 Million

August 28th, 2016

Don’t Breathe

Fall season begins in earnest this weekend with the low-budget suspense flick Don’t Breathe taking over at the top of the box office chart. Sony is predicting a $26.1 million debut for the film, which will be the best debut for a horror or suspense film since The Purge: Election Year’s $31.5 million in July, and the best for a non-sequel since Annabelle’s $37.1 million in October, 2014. Don’t Breathe has the advantage of really good reviews (currently running at 84% positive on Rotten Tomatoes), although it will have a lot of competition over the next few weeks, with films aimed at a broadly similar audience coming out every week for the next three weeks (not to mention a truckload more arriving in October).

Suicide Squad will drop to second this weekend in its fourth weekend in release. It’ll be down another 42% to $12.1 million, but has now amassed a respectable $282.9 million domestically.

Less than $700,000 separates the next five films on the chart, so their relative positions are likely to change one way or another when final results are reported on Monday. For now, Kubo and the Two Strings is in third place with $7.9 million, down 37% from its opening, which is a decent performance these days, but does suggest it’ll struggle to hold on to theaters—a major disappointment for those of us who hope to see more inventive fair in theaters. In spite of great reviews, the stop-animated feature will end the weekend with just $24.9 million to date.

Mechanic: Resurrection will pick up $7.5 million on its opening weekend, and is currently placed fifth on the chart (just behind Sausage Party). The Jason Statham actioner is performing in line with his other recent starring roles—Homefront, which opened with $6.9 million, being the most recent example. The first Mechanic opened with $11.4 million in 2011.

Outgunning The Mechanic, on a theater average basis at least, is Southside with You, which will earn a shade over $3 million this weekend from 813 theaters. That’s slightly disappointing for a well-reviewed film that unfortunately faces a reflexively hostile reaction from 40% of the US population, particularly during the height of election season. It is playing well in some cities though, and will most likely have a good run for an independent film. Just ahead of it in the chart, and already having a great run for an independent film is Hell or High Water, which will add another $3.7 million from 909 theaters this weekend for $8.6 million to date. With a theater average north of $4,000, it still has some room to expand.

The real disappointment this weekend is Hands of Stone, which is headed for a short theatrical run thanks to an opening weekend of $1.734 million from 810 theaters. Its average of $2,141 per theater, and 46% positive reviews, won’t be enough to stop it from sinking.

In limited release, just one film will break an average of $10,000 this weekend: The Hollars. It is expected to pick up $46,000 or so from four locations, which is a solid performance, but doesn’t suggest it’ll break out.

- Weekend estimates

- Don’t Breathe comparison chart
- Mechanic: Resurrection comparison chart
- Suicide Squad comparison chart
- Sausage Party comparison chart
- Kubo and the Two Strings comparison chart
- Ben-Hur Comparisons
- Bad Moms comparison chart
- DC Extended Universe at the box office

Bruce Nash,

Filed under: Weekend Box Office, Sausage Party, Suicide Squad, Mechanic: Resurrection, The Purge: Election Year, Kubo and the Two Strings, Hell or High Water, Southside with You, Hands of Stone, Don’t Breathe, The Hollars, DC Extended Universe, Jason Statham