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Weekend Predictions: With Labor Day Comes the Fall

September 1st, 2016

Morgan

Summer officially ends this week with Labor Day long weekend. For a lot of families, this is the last long weekend before school starts. (For other families, school has already started.) There are two films opening wide-ish this weekend. I thought Morgan would open in 2,500 theaters, but it is only opening in 2,020. That will hurt its box office chances. The Light Between Oceans is only opening in 1,500 theaters, which might prevent it from reaching the top five over the weekend. Don’t Breathe will likely remain in first place over the weekend, but I think Morgan will be closer than most people expected it to be. This weekend last year there was not a single film to earn more than $10 million over the three-day weekend. I think Don’t Breathe will top that, while Morgan will be relatively close. This should give 2016 the advantage in the year-over-year competition.

Don’t Breathe opened with an outstanding $26.41 million. It also has excellent reviews and it is a holiday weekend, both of which should help its legs. On the other hand, it is a horror film and those rarely last a long time in theaters. Look for $13 million over the four-day weekend, including just a hair above $10 million over three days.

Morgan is the widest new release of the week, but with an opening theater count of just 2,020, it is barely truly wide. Its reviews are currently 42% positive, which is obviously not good, but it is also not bad compared to the average horror film. Labor Day long weekend is historically a good weekend to release a horror film, so I think this movie will do relatively well at the box office. Look for $11 million over the four-day weekend and over $8 million over three.

Suicide Squad will be pushed into third place with $7 million / $9 million over the weekend. It remains on pace to reach $300 million and that’s all the studio cares about at this point.

Kubo and the Two Strings is a family film and should get a boost from the holidays as a result. Its four-day weekend will be barely lower than its three-day weekend last time around. Look for close to $6 million from Friday through Sunday and just over $7 million including Monday.

Another family film, Pete’s Dragon, should round out the top five with $5 million over the three-day weekend and just over $6 million including Monday. It is closing in on its production budget domestically, so if it were to do as well internationally as it did domestically, it would break even. Unfortunately, it is struggling internationally.

The final film on this week’s list is The Light Between Oceans. The film is opening in only 1,500 theaters, which is really bad. Its reviews are good, but not good enough to compensate for its small theater count. However, it started out terribly. The first five reviews on Rotten Tomatoes were all negative. If the reviews continue to improve, so will its box office chances. I’m predicting just under $5 million over three-days and $6 million over four. That said, if its Tomatometer Score is 75% or higher by tomorrow, it will likely reach the top five.

- Morgan Comparisons
- The Light Between Oceans Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, The Light Between Oceans, Suicide Squad, Kubo and the Two Strings, Pete’s Dragon, Don’t Breathe, Morgan