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Friday Estimates: Sully Breaks Bough

September 10th, 2016

When the Bough Breaks

Sully is the only new release not to disappoint this weekend, as it earned $12.21 million on Friday. This is well ahead of Tom Hanks’ recent trio of real-life movies. It tops Captain Philips’ opening day by nearly 50%, and that movie went on to earn more than $100 million domestically. Additionally, the film’s reviews improved and hit 84% positive. That’s on the low end of potential Awards Season buzz, but it isn’t impossible to get there. It also earned a solid A from CinemaScore, which suggests good word-of-mouth. As for its opening weekend chances, it is on pace for about $35 million over the weekend and I’m predicting $100 million domestically. There’s no way the studio isn’t happy with that.

Sony won’t be as happy with the opening of When the Bough Breaks, although they won’t be terribly broken up over it either. The film pulled in $5.28 million during its opening day, which is a great opening day for a film that cost just $10 million to make. Unfortunately, these thrillers tend to have poor legs, so a $14 million opening weekend is likely. Worse still, the film’s Tomatometer Score is currently 0% positive and its CinemaScore was a B. It won’t last in theaters long.

Further down the list we find The Wild Life, which managed only $729,000. Its theater average for the day was below $300. Combine this with abysmal reviews and a CinemaScore of B- and there’s no way it will have long legs. I think it will earn a theater average of less than $1,000 over the weekend for a $2.4 million opening weekend, while theater owners will drop it as soon as they are contractually able to.

The Disappointments Room had a similar opening with $475,000, but it was only playing in just over 1,500 theaters, so its theater average for the day was just over $300, and its simultaneous release on VOD gives it something of an excuse. It still only has seven reviews, but none of them are positive. Additionally, it managed to earn a D from CinemaScore. ... Even Fantastic Four managed a C-. On the positive side, no one will remember the film by the end of the month, so it won’t kill any careers.

- Friday Box Office Chart

- Sully Comparisons
- When the Bough Breaks Comparisons
- The Wild Life Comparisons
- The Disappointments Room Comparisons

Filed under: Friday Estimates, Tom Hanks