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Weekend Wrap-Up: Only Girl isn’t a Train Wreck earning $24.54 million

October 11th, 2016

The Girl on the Train

Over the weekend was Columbus Day, or as it is known in more and more places, Indigenous People’s Day. It’s also Thanksgiving Day up here in Canada and it would make more sense for Americans to celebrate Canadian Thanksgiving than Columbus Day. Canadian Thanksgiving is where you give thanks to all the Canadians that make your life better. For example, both Ryan Gosling and Ryan Reynolds are Canadian. Anyhoo... The weekend box office numbers were not buoyed by the semi-holiday on Monday as none of the new releases matched expectations. The Girl on the Train led the way by a wide margin with $24.54 million compared to $15.14 million for Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children. Neither The Birth of a Nation nor Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life made it into the top five. The overall box office fell 9.5% from last weekend dropping to $103 million. That was 13% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2016 has earned $8.64 billion, putting it 4.4% / $370 million ahead of 2015. A couple of more weeks like this and we will have reason to hit the panic button.

The Girl on the Train opened in first place with $24.54 million, which is a good start for a film that cost $45 million to make. The film’s reviews and its B- CinemaScore won’t help its legs, but even weak legs will push the film past $60 million given this start. If it can get a standard 40/60 domestic / international box office then it will make enough money to break even on the home market.

Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children came within a rounding error of predictions with $15.14 million over the weekend for a ten-day total of $51.20 million. It should finish its run with between $80 million and $90 million domestically, while its international numbers are already stronger than its domestic numbers. Granted, the movie cost $110 million to make, which is a lot, but it could break even on the home market with its progress so far.

Deepwater Horizon held on better than expected down just 43% to $11.53 million over the weekend. Unfortunately, that means the film still only has $38.30 million after two weeks of release compared to a $156 million production budget. Unless Lionsgate makes a lot more money from international sales than anticipated, there’s almost no chance this movie will break even.

The Magnificent Seven was a surprise entry in the top five earning fourth place with $9.01 million over the weekend for a total of $75.78 million after three weeks of release. It will match its $90 million production budget domestically; it might even get to $100 million domestically, which would be a huge bonus for Sony. The studio hasn’t had a single monster hit this year, but they’ve had a number of $100 million hits with up to two more potential $100 million hits on the way.

Storks rounded out the top five with $8.29 million over the weekend for a total of $49.96 million after three weeks of release. The film cost $70 million to make and it should top that figure domestically. It will need to do well internationally and on the home market to break even, but that seems likely at this point. It won’t be a monster hit, so don’t expect a sequel, at least not one that gets a theatrical release.

The Birth of a Nation missed the top five landing in sixth place with $7.00 million. Its reviews have fallen to 78% positive, which is great for a wide release, but far below what an Awards Season contender needs, so it likely won’t get a boost from any Oscar buzz going forward.

Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life was right behind with $6.88 million. Its reviews are 61% positive, but that won’t matter, because even good legs won’t help this film become a hit. It only cost $8.5 million to make, but it very likely cost more than that to advertise and it won’t be able to cover that cost any time soon.

The only sophomore film not in the top five was Masterminds. Amazingly, the film fell only 38% to $4.08 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $12.77 million. Unfortunately for the movie, its theater average is just $1,341, so a lot of theater owners will be dropping the film on Friday.

- Weekend Box Office

- The Girl on the Train Comparisons
- The Birth of a Nation Comparisons
- Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Wrap-up, Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children, Masterminds, Deepwater Horizon, The Magnificent Seven, The Birth of a Nation, Storks, The Girl on the Train, Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life, Ryan Gosling, Ryan Reynolds