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Weekend Predictions: Can Accountant be Counted On?

October 13th, 2016

The Accountant

Three wide releases are coming out this week, which is one more than expected. The Accountant is clearly the biggest of the three, but its reviews are falling into the danger zone. Kevin Hart: What Now? is hoping to be the biggest stand-up comedy movie since Eddie Murphy’s Raw. Finally there’s Max Steel, which I didn’t think was going to open truly wide. Then again, its theater count is 2,034, so it is opening barely wide. This weekend last year, Goosebumps led the way with $23.62 million. I really thought The Accountant would top that, but I no longer think that will be likely. Worse still, there were five films that earned more than $10 million last year, but there will only be three of them this week. 2016’s slump will continue.

In The Accountant, Ben Affleck plays a child prodigy whose dad trained him to shoot as a way of ... moving the plot forward. As an adult, he becomes an accountant who handles the books for a lot of shady characters. He tries to get a legitimate client, but even that results in people dying. I was really hoping this film would be one of the better films of the month. However, its reviews are below the 50% positive level and for a while it looked like it was going to fall below 40% positive. (It still could.) The film could have a chance of opening above $20 million, but $19 million seems more likely.

The previous Kevin Hart stand-up concert movie, Let Me Explain, opened with just over $10 million in 876 theaters during the three-day weekend and over $17 million from Wednesday through Sunday. What Now? is opening in 2,500 theaters and is earning better reviews, both of which will help it at the box office. It’s not going to earn the same per theater average as its predecessor did. In fact, it could see its average cut in half. That said, that would still give it between $14 million and $15 million during its opening weekend. I think it will top that figure, by a little bit, at $16 million. That’s a lot for this genre.

The Girl on the Train opened with $24.54 million last weekend, but its genre and its reviews suggest it will fall substantially more than 50% this weekend. However, its target audience will likely help it hold on a bit better than that. Look for a sophomore stint of just over $12 million.

Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children will be next with $8 million for a total of $65 million after three weeks of release. It will finish with $80 million domestically and $200 million worldwide. It will need help on the home market to break even.

Deepwater Horizon will round out the top five with $6 million. The film will earn just below $50 million after three weeks of release. It would be a midlevel hit, if it hadn't cost so much to make.

The final wide release of the week is Max Steel. We didn’t even talk about this film in the monthly preview, because we were convinced it wasn’t going to open truly wide. Unfortunately, opening wide might have been a mistake. There are still no reviews on Rotten Tomatoes and the buzz is really quiet, even for a smaller film based on a not terribly popular toy. Look for between $4 million and $5 million, which is barely above the Mendoza Line.

- The Accountant Comparisons
- Kevin Hart: What Now? Comparisons
- Max Steel Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children, Deepwater Horizon, The Accountant, Kevin Hart: What Now?, The Girl on the Train, Max Steel, Ben Affleck, Kevin Hart