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Friday Estimates: Fantastic Dominates Charts, but with just $29.7 million

November 19th, 2016

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

As expected, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them easily earned first place on Friday. However, it only managed $29.7 million, which was well below expectations. This is the worst opening day in the Harry Potter franchise since The Chamber of Secrets. (The two films are so close that the final figure for Fantastic Beasts could be the worst in the franchise.) The reviews are weaker than the franchise as a whole, but its CinemaScore is an A and that’s roughly average for the previous 8 Harry Potter films. The film should still earn between $70 million and $75 million over the weekend, depending on if the high CinemaScore can overcome the Fanboy Effect. I would choose to be optimistic, but that hasn’t worked out this weekend.

The next best new release was The Edge of Seventeen, but it only managed 7th place with $1.7 million, putting it on pace to earn less than $5 million over the weekend. It failed to find an audience despite earning 95% positive reviews, while its CinemaScore was a solid A minus. There’s a chance Hailee Steinfeld and Woody Harrelson could pick up nominations for the Independent Spirit Awards this week and if they do, then the film could have a relatively good Thanksgiving weekend. If not, the film could be all but forgotten by the time the other awards start announcing their nominees.

Bleed for This was right behind in 8th place with $895,000. It will finish the weekend with just over $2 million, putting it below the Mendoza Line. Its reviews are barely above the overall positive level, while it too earned an A minus from CinemaScore. I can’t imagine it will bounce back from this. Worse still, Miles Teller could develop a reputation for being box office poison.

The final “new” release of the week was Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk, which missed the top ten with just $350,000. Its reviews continue to drop and it wasn’t even tracked by CinemaScore. It could be nearly out of theaters by the second weekend of December.

The holdovers fared only a little better with Doctor Strange earning second place with $4.78 million, while Trolls was in third place with $3.85 million. Since Trolls is a family film, it will likely bounce back significantly on Saturday, which will allow it to reach second place over the weekend with between $17 million and $18 million. Doctor Strange will be right behind with just over $17 million.

- Friday Box Office

- Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them Comparisons
- The Edge of Seventeen Comparisons
- Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk Comparisons
- Bleed for This Comparisons

Filed under: Friday Estimates, Harry Potter, Woody Harrelson, Miles Teller, Hailee Steinfeld