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Weekend Estimates: Rogue One Blasts Off with $155 Million

December 18th, 2016

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story is set for the second-biggest weekend in December, third-biggest weekend of 2016, and twelfth-biggest weekend of all time, with Disney predicting a weekend of $155 million, as of Sunday morning. Needless to say, that’s a great result for the Star Wars spin-off, beating the studio’s pre-release guidance, and hitting or exceeding the numbers that most in the industry were expecting. Our model predicted $151 million as of yesterday morning, so the film is maintaining its momentum through the weekend, and there are some reasons to believe that Rogue One may beat Disney’s Sunday projection.

It all comes down to school holidays. Last year, 77% of students were out of school on the Monday following the release of The Force Awakens. This year, just 48% of students will be out of school on Monday. That makes Sunday a less appealing day to go to movies for some people, and will drag down grosses. It’s hard to predict by how much. Disney is guessing Sunday will come in about 19% behind Saturday’s estimated $46,354,000, which is somewhat steeper than the 11% decline experienced by The Force Awakens ($68.3 million Saturday, $60.5 million Sunday). If the number ends up at 11% then Rogue One will end the weekend with $159 million, and be the tenth-biggest opener of all time. The difference is marginal in some ways, but we’re talking millions of dollars in revenue, as well as bragging rights. Overall, Disney’s tracking looks right in line with everything else I’m seeing though, so a weekend of $155 million seems like a safer bet.

Internationally, the United Kingdom leads the way for Rogue One with an opening weekend estimated at $21 million—the best opening of 2016. Germany will deliver about $12.5 million (also the best in 2016), Australia $10.8 million, and France is the fourth and final international territory to produce $10 million at the box office on opening weekend, hitting the mark exactly, and also the best weekend of the year in the country. Other international totals so far: Japan $7.9m, Russia $5.6m, Brazil $5.3m, Mexico $5.1m, Spain $4.5m (2016’s best weekend there), Sweden $3.5m (best of 2016), and Italy $3.1m. The film also had the best weekend of the year in Austria, Croatia, Denmark, Finland, Hungary and Switzerland, per the studio.

Domestically, this weekend is also noteworthy for the performance of a couple of Oscar hopefuls. La La Land expanded into 200 theaters on Friday and is set for $4.02 million for the weekend and an impressive $20,100 theater average. Fences debuted in four locations and will average $32,000 for a total of $128,000.

- Weekend estimates

- Rogue One: A Star Wars Story comparison chart
- Biggest weekends at the domestic box office
- Biggest weekends in December
- Star Wars franchise box office history

- Collateral Beauty comparison chart
- Manchester by the Sea comparison chart
- La La Land comparison chart
- Moana comparison chart
- Office Christmas Party comparison chart
- Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them comparison chart
- Arrival comparison chart
- Allied comparison chart
- Marvel Cinematic Universe at the box office

Disclosure: Manchester-by-the-Sea and Jackie were produced by clients of our research and analytical services.

Bruce Nash,

Filed under: Weekend Box Office, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, La La Land, Fences, Star Wars, Marvel Cinematic Universe