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Weekend Predictions: Will Final Come in First? Or will Dog Find a Purpose?

January 26th, 2017

Resident Evil: The Final Chapter

It is not a good week at the box office. There are two films opening at saturation level theaters counts, 3,000 or more theaters, and both have a shot at first place. A Dog’s Purpose was expected to win with relative ease, but recent controversy, and weak reviews, have put that in doubt. This leaves an opening for Resident Evil: The Final Chapter to squeak out a win. However, it will be dealing with direct competition and that’s going to hurt. Finally there’s Gold, which is barely opening truly wide and is just hoping for a spot in the top ten. This weekend last year, Kung Fu Panda 3 opened with just over $40 million. This could be more than all three wide releases open with this weekend. 2017 does have better depth, but it won’t be enough to win in the year-over-year comparison.

Resident Evil: The Final Chapter is, possibly, the final installment in the Resident Evil franchise. This franchise was never a major hit in theaters; the biggest film was Afterlife, which earned barely more than $60 million domestically. Additionally, the films have never been big hits with critics, so the film’s early reviews are not going to be a major obstacle. At the moment, reviews range from “dumb but fun” to “only for fans of the franchise”. I think The Final Chapter will earn the worst opening in the franchise, but it should be close with just over $17 million.

Split dominated the box office last weekend with over $40 million; however, despite its 75% positive reviews, it will likely collapse this weekend, because horror movies historically have short legs. A drop-off of greater that 60% is not out of the question, which would leave the movie with just under $16 million this weekend. I’m not that pessimistic, but I think it will be close with just under $17 million. That could be enough to get to $100 million domestically, making it the first film released in 2017 to get to that milestone.

A Dog’s Purpose had a lot of potential to be a hit, especially with more mature women. However, two major incidents have really hurt its chances. Firstly, a video was released that appeared to show the filmmakers abusing a dog in order to get a shot. As soon as that video came out, there was talk of boycott. I no longer think that will be an issue, but its reviews are really bad. At the moment, its Tomatometer Score is just 27% and dropping. That said, it still has a shot at first place with close to $18 million. However, I think it will open in third with just over $16 million.

Going back to $100 million, both Hidden Figures and La La Land are set to hit the century mark this weekend. Hidden Figures should hold on well compared to last weekend, thanks in part to its handful of Oscar Nominations. The film should earn close to $12 million this weekend, which will be more than enough to top $100 million in total.

La La Land tied the record for most Oscar Nominations at 14. This should actually boost its box office compared to last weekend and it could earn as much as $10 million. That’s probably too bullish, but it should come close.

The final wide release of the week is Gold. This is the latest film released by Weinstein Co. and that is not good news. It has been over a year since they released a film that could be considered a midlevel hit. Last week, they released The Founder and it faltered. Will Gold do any better? Probably not. Its reviews are only 34% positive at the moment, which is sadly the best of the week. The film is opening in 2,200 theaters and there’s a good chance it will miss the Mendoza Line with just under $4 million during the weekend. Weinstein Co. doesn’t have another wide release until June when Amityville: The Awakening opens. Maybe.

- Resident Evil: The Final Chapter Comparisons
- A Dog’s Purpose Comparisons
- Gold Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Resident Evil: The Final Chapter, The Founder, Gold, La La Land, Split, Hidden Figures, A Dog’s Purpose, Resident Evil