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Weekend Predictions: Will Split Be Separated from the Top Spot?

February 2nd, 2017

Rings

The new releases this week are not strong, so we could see Split remain on top for the third weekend in a row. Rings should at least be in a fight for first place, if it just does as well as Resident Evil: The Final Chapter did last weekend. On the other hand, The Space Between Us is being eviscerated by the critics and it really needed good word of mouth to thrive. If it opens in the top five, I will be impressed. This weekend last year, Hail, Caesar! was the number one new release and it earned just $11.36 million. Rings should top that. Unfortunately, the number one film was Kung Fu Panda 3, which earned more than than $20 million. There’s no way Split will match that, so 2017 is going to lose in the year-over-year competition.

Split is a slight favorite to win the weekend with just under $15 million giving it a running tally of close to $99 million. It will get to $100 million, likely on Tuesday. While 2017 isn’t keeping pace with 2016, having a $100 million hit this early in the year is great news.

Rings is the latest installment in the Rings franchise. It has been 12 years since the previous installment in this franchise came out, which is way too many to think this film will be a major hit. At least with Resident Evil: The Final Chapter, it had the video games to keep the franchise in the public’s mind. There are still no reviews, which is sadly common for horror films. I don’t expect the film to earn good reviews. A Tomatometer Score of just 40% positive would be good news. Look for an opening weekend of just under $13 million, which puts it within striking distance of first place.

A Dog’s Purpose is earning bad reviews, but it has found an audience with families, so that should help its legs, until better competition comes along. It might fall less than 40%, but I think that’s overly optimistic. A sub-50% drop-off is likely and that would give the film nearly $10 million over the weekend.

Hidden Figures should earn fourth place with just over $9 million over the weekend. The film has already topped $100 million domestically, so the film has covered its entire production budget and probably nearly all of its advertising budget. (I’m assuming Fox is spending close to $10 million on Awards Season promotion.) There’s no question this movie will generate a lot of profit for the studio. The only question is what similar movie is made next. May I suggest Marie Maynard Daly. Or for female scientists in general, Pearl Kendrick and Grace Eldering is begging to be made into a movie.

La La Land will be right behind with just under $8 million. It too has broken even by now, even with a likely heftier Awards Season budget.

The Space Between Us will likely miss the top five. It’s a smaller film being released by a smaller distributor. In these cases, they don’t have a major advertising budget to work with, so they need strong word-of-mouth to thrive. Sadly, this film’s reviews are abysmal. Its box office potential takes a massive hit as a result. There’s a chance the film will open below the Mendoza Line with just over $5 million, but just over $6 million is more likely.

- Rings Comparisons
- The Space Between Us Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Resident Evil: The Final Chapter, Rings, La La Land, Split, The Space Between Us, Hidden Figures, A Dog’s Purpose, Ring