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2016 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Supporting Actress

February 15th, 2017

Fences

With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at the Supporting Roles categories, starting with Best Supporting Actress. In this category, we have one overwhelming favorite, a long shot with a shot, and then everyone else.

(Note: All previous awards listed are only for acting and not other categories. However, they are for supporting and lead acting. Previous awards and nominations are not for TV roles, on the other hand. )

Best Supporting Actress

Viola Davis for Fences
Tomatometer Score: 94% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Two SAGs, Golden Globe, and BAFTA
Movie's Previous Major Wins: SAG, Golden Globe, and BAFTA
Actress's Previous Major Nominations: Two Oscars, One BAFTA, Two Golden Globes, Four SAGS, One Independent Spirit Award
Actress's Previous Major Wins: Two SAGs
Notes: Viola Davis has won all three previous major awards this year and has two Oscars without a win. That’s good news for her chances this year.

Naomie Harris for Moonlight
Tomatometer Score: 98% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Two SAGs, Golden Globe, and BAFTA
Movie's Previous Major Wins: None
Actress's Previous Major Nominations: None
Actress's Previous Major Wins: None
Notes: Naomie Harris has lost to Viola Davis at every awards ceremony so far and I think Oscar night will be no different.

Nicole Kidman for Lion
Tomatometer Score: 86% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: SAGs, Golden Globe, and BAFTA
Movie's Previous Major Wins: None
Actress's Previous Major Nominations: Three Oscars, Three BAFTAs, Nine Golden Globes, and Independent Spirit Award
Actress's Previous Major Wins: One Oscar, One BAFTA, and Three Golden Globes
Notes: Nicole Kidman has lost to Viola Davis at every awards ceremony so far and has already won an Oscar. She might be the longest of the long shots this year.

Octavia Spencer for Hidden Figures
Tomatometer Score: 92% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Two SAGs and Golden Globe
Movie's Previous Major Wins: SAG
Actress's Previous Major Nominations: One Oscar, One BAFTA, One Golden Globe and Two SAGs.
Actress's Previous Major Wins: Two SAGs
Notes: The only major award Octavia Spencer has won so far this year is the SAG for ensemble cast. I think this will hurt her chances of earning the Oscar, because she is part of an ensemble and doesn’t stand out enough to win the Oscar.

Michelle Williams for Manchester by the Sea
Tomatometer Score: 96% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Two SAGs, Golden Globe, and BAFTA
Movie's Previous Major Wins: None
Actress's Previous Major Nominations: Three Oscars, Three Golden Globes, Two BAFTAs, Four SAGs, and Six Independent Spirit Awards
Actress's Previous Major Wins: One Golden Globe and Two Independent Spirit Awards
Notes: Michelle Williams will win an Oscar. This is her fourth shot and so far she’s zero for three. She might get a “Career Achievement” Oscar, but she’s only 36, so that seems unlikely, at least this year. If she still doesn’t have an Oscar a decade from now, then she be the favorite the next time she is nominated.

Conclusion: Viola Davis has won every major award she’s been nominated for. I think it is a safe bet that this trend will continue on Oscar night. However, if there is an upset, it will likely be Michelle Williams, as some voters might say she’s due for a win after three losses.


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Filed under: Awards Season, Lion, Manchester by the Sea, Hidden Figures, Moonlight, Fences, Nicole Kidman, Viola Davis, Naomie Harris, Michelle Williams, Octavia Spencer