Friday Estimates: Batman Beats Up Competition with $7.6 million
February 18, 2017
It is a disappointing weekend for new releases, as only The Great Wall managed to match low expectations. This left The Lego Batman Movie cruising to first place on Friday with $7.6 million. It is on pace for $42 million over the four-day weekend and will crack $100 million sometime on Monday, which matches our predictions almost perfectly. If the film can make $150 million domestically and $200 million internationally, then it will break even before it reaches the home market.
Fifty Shades Darker remained in second place with $6.8 million on Friday. This is almost 69% lower than its opening day last Friday, which is appropriate, I guess. The film should earn close to $25 million over the four-day weekend for a total of $95 million on Monday. Like the Lego Batman, this is almost exactly as we predicted. Additionally, this might be enough that Universal’s share is higher than the film’s $55 million production budget. Add in the film’s international numbers so far and it might already be profitable after just 8 days of release.
The Great Wall opened in third place with $5.9 million on Friday, putting it on pace for $19 million over the four-day weekend. Again, this is almost exactly as we predicted, so it is reason for us to celebrate. On the other hand, Universal was likely hoping for more, especially given its $150 million price-tag. The reviews won’t help its legs, nor will its B from CinemaScore, so a final domestic run of about $50 million is likely. Since the film needs approximately $400 million worldwide just to pay for its production budget and over $600 million to break even any time soon, this opening is not a good omen.
John Wick: Chapter Two fell faster than expected to land in fourth place with $4.1 million on Friday. This is 63% drop-off from last Friday, but the film will bounce back thanks to its reviews and the holidays. It won’t bounce back enough to claim third place, but fourth place with $17 million isn’t a bad second weekend. It likely won’t be enough to get to $100 million domestically, but even $75 million at home will be enough to pay for its production budget.
Fist Fight opened in fifth place with $3.9 million, which puts it on pace for just $13 million over four days. Like the other films that opened this weekend, this one had weak reviews, and it earned just a B from CinemaScore. Anything below a B plus usually results in shorter legs, so this is bad, but not terrible. I really thought the lack of direct competition would help the film at the box office, but perhaps moviegoers are just not interested in seeing a comedy at the moment.
The final wide release of the week was A Cure for Wellness, which bombed with just $1.6 million on Friday. It does have the best reviews of the week, but they are still mixed, while its CinemaScore was just a C plus. This will hurt its legs enough to put it below the Mendoza Line over the three-day weekend and limit its four-day weekend to just under $6 million.
- The Great Wall Comparisons
- Fist Fight Comparisons
- A Cure for Wellness Comparisons
Filed under: Friday Estimates, A Cure for Wellness, The Lego Batman Movie, The Great Wall, Fifty Shades Darker, John Wick: Chapter Two, Fist Fight