Oscar Predictions: La La Land Favorite to Win Nine Oscars Tonight
February 26, 2017
Voting in our annual Predict the Academy Awards contest is now closed, and we can reveal the final vote totals in each category, along with the rough probability for which film will win each award. This year’s award nominations have been dominated by La La Land, and it is expected to pick up the most Oscars tonight, with Best Picture among them. It has already equalled the record for most nominations, with 14, but it’s not favored to equal or set the record for most wins, with our poll suggesting it will pick up nine awards. Read on for details of our poll.
- Predicted winners in each category
La La Land is the overwhelming favorite in virtually all categories in which it is expected to win. 89% of contest entrants expect it to win Best Picture, 93% give Damien Chazelle the nod for best director, 88% think Emma Stone will win best actress, and the film’s other wins come with similarly high expectations, going (from highest to lowest probability) 95% for Original Score, 85% for Cinematography, 85% for Production Design, 82% for Film Editing, 81% for City of Stars to win best original song (and another 9% of voters picking Audition from the movie to win that award), and 74% for Sound Mixing.
In one case—best song—La La Land is up against itself, so its theoretical maximum number of wins would be 13. The four other cases where it isn’t favored is for Best Supporting Actor, where Ryan Gosling is a rank outsider; Original Screenplay, where Kenneth Lonergan’s work on Manchester by the Sea is favored by 61% of voters; and in two technical categories, Costume Design and Sound Editing, where it is the second favorite in each case.
The closest category of all is for Best Actor, with Denzel Washington expected to win by 49% of entrants, just a shade ahead of Casey Affleck’s 44% score. Affleck led in the polls until the last couple of days, and this category is really too close to call.
With La La Land dominant, people are expecting the remaining categories to be split between the several other films worthy of awards this year. While the Best Actor award will probably go to either Fences or Manchester by the Sea, each film has a favorite in another category: Manchester is favored for Best Original Screenplay, as noted above, and Viola Davis is considered a huge favorite for Best Actress with 91% of the votes.
Moonlight is the other non-La-La-Land film that is widely expected to get some consolation prizes. Mahershala Ali gets 88% of the votes for Best Actor, and Barry Jenkins and Tarell McCraney score 82% for Best Adapted Screenplay.
Once all those prizes have been shared out, there’s not a huge amount left for the other nominees. Arrival, Lion, Hell or High Water, and Hidden Figures are projected to be the big losers on the night. In spite of combining for 21 nominations, they aren’t expected to win any. In fact, they are long shots in every category in which they have nominations, with the best bet being an Adapted Screenplay award for Hidden Figures, and it’s only scoring 9% in that category.
Other major films that are expected to win awards are Zootopia, the big favorite for Animated Feature, with 85% of votes; Jackie, with 50% of votes in the hotly-contested Costume Design category (where La La Land’s best chance at a 10th win lies); Star Trek Beyond scores 77% of the vote for Make-Up and Hairstyling; Hacksaw Ridge gets 60% for Sound Editing; and finally The Jungle Book has an 81% chance of picking up the Visual Effects award.
The two other closely-watched categories have two potentially divisive predicted winners. Forushande (The Salesman) is expected to win Best Foreign Language Film, and O.J.: Made in America is an overwhelming favorite to win Best Documentary, in spite of being made as a seven-part TV series.
- Predicted winners in each category
- Total votes in each category
- Predicted and actual winners in each category
- Total votes in each category
- Predicted and actual winners in each category
Filed under: Denzel Washington, Casey Affleck, Viola Davis, Ryan Gosling, Emma Stone, Damien Chazelle, Mahershala Ali, Kenneth Lonergan, Barry Jenkins, Tarell McCraney