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Weekend Predictions: Logan is set to Skewer the Competition

March 2nd, 2017

Logan

The first weekend of March has three wide releases, but the one everyone is talking about is Logan. It should become the biggest hit of the year so far. The other two releases are The Shack, a faith-based film, and Before I Fall, which is essentially Groundhog Day set in high school. Neither film is expected to compete for top spot. In fact, it would be a surprise if both landed in the top five. As far as holdovers are concerned, only Get Out has a shot at $20 million, while only The Lego Batman Movie will earn more than $10 million. This weekend last year, Zootopia led the way with just over $75 million, while the other two new releases earned less than $30 million combined. 2017 will be bigger on top, won’t have as strong new releases overall, but should have about the same depth.

Logan is the first comic book film made that is mimicking the R-rated success of Deadpool. There are some comic book characters that really need the freedom an R-rating gives filmmakers. Wolverine is one of them. Superman is not. Don’t make an R-rated Superman movie. Please. As for this film’s box office chances, they are very strong. The reviews remain over 90% positive and the buzz has grown at the perfect time. There is a slim chance the movie will earn $100 million this weekend, while anything less than $75 million will be seen as a disappointment. I do think the lower end is more likely than the higher end, so I’m predicting $85 million. That would be the fourth biggest opening weekend in March.

Get Out topped expectations last weekend and it should hold on better than most horror films do this weekend thanks to its nearly 100% positive reviews. However, it is still a horror film and it will share a substantial part of its target audience with Logan, so falling close to 50% isn’t out of the question. I think it will hold on better than that, but a 40% drop to $20 million is likely as good as it will get. That will still put its running tally at $70 million and out it on pace for over $100 million domestically.

The Lego Batman Movie should be next with just over $12 million during the weekend giving it a total of $150 million after four weeks of release. It is on pace to hit $180 million to $190 million domestically and already has enough worldwide to cover its entire production budget and much of its advertising budget.

The Shack is a faith-based film about a father whose young daughter went missing and was likely murdered. The film has an amazing cast compared to most faith-based films, but so far the early reviews on Rotten Tomatoes are mostly negative. The acting is good, the pace is not. Fortunately, faith-based films tend to be critic-proof so even if the rest of the reviews continue this negative start, it won’t have too much impact on the film’s box office chances. I think it will be in a close race for third place with just under $12 million.

John Wick: Chapter Two should round out the top five with between $5 million and $6 million for a total of $83 million after four weeks of release. This is more than the first film made worldwide and enough to pay for the film’s entire production budget. It might make enough worldwide to break even before it reaches the home market.

The final wide release of the week is Before I Fall. The film is about a high school student, played by Zoey Deutch, who gets trapped in a time loop and must relive the same day over and over again. For a lot of people reading this, that description will sound familiar, but so far the critics haven’t considered this to be a deal-breaker. In fact, the film’s Tomatometer has risen to 71% positive. That’s not enough to get a Certified Fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes, but it is enough to be considered a selling point. Unfortunately, the buzz is just too quiet. It might have a shot at the top five with $8 million, but there are many who think it will open below the Mendoza Line. I really hope that’s not the case, but I think it will be close with just over $5 million. If it beats expectations by just $1 million, it will be in the top five. It if misses expectations by $1 million, it will miss the Mendoza Line.

- Logan Comparisons
- The Shack Comparisons
- Before I Go Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Logan, The Lego Batman Movie, John Wick: Chapter Two, The Shack, Get Out, Before I Fall, Superman, Wolverine, Zoey Deutch