Weekend Predictions: Will New Releases be the Boss of the Beast?

March 30, 2017

The Boss Baby

Two new wide releases attempt to dethrone Beauty and the Beast this weekend, but I wouldn’t bet on either of them doing it. Earlier this week, it looked like Ghost in the Shell was a potential $100 million hit. Then its reviews collapsed. The Boss Baby, on the other hand, started with terrible reviews, but its buzz is growing despite this. This weekend last year, the best new release was God’s Not Dead 2, which opened with $7.6 million, and 2017 is in an excellent position to gain ground as a result. Granted, the top film that weekend was Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice with over $50 million and no film this week will match that, but the top three films last year earned just over $80 million, while the top three films this year should earn more than $100 million.

Beauty and the Beast fell just 48% during its sophomore stint and films tend to hold on better during their third weekend of release. If this turns out to be true this time around, then Beauty and the Beast will earn $48 million. However, The Boss Baby is more or less direct competition and this new release is seeing its box office potential grow at the perfect time. This should steal a couple of million dollars away from Beauty, resulting in a $46 million weekend. This will still be enough to top the box office chart and will leave the movie just shy of $400 million after three weeks of release.

The Boss Baby’s reviews are terrible, but that hasn’t stopped its buzz from growing. It has been a month and a half since The Lego Batman Movie came out, so there is a lot of demand for a big digitally-animated movie. At the high end, Boss Baby could open with more than $40 million, but $34 million seems more likely at this point. This should be enough to get to $100 million domestically, even with Smurfs: The Lost Village opening next weekend.

Ghost in the Shell’s early review Tomatometer average was in the high 60s and then started growing. At that point, I though it would open in second place and finish with $100 million. Then its reviews cratered, falling more than 20 points in less than 24 hours to just 50% positive. This isn’t a disaster, but the buzz has dropped with its Tomatometer Score. At the moment, opening with under $30 million is more likely that coming close to $40 million. I think it will avoid that fate, but it will be really close, with more than $31 million.

Power Rangers opened with just over $40 million last weekend and it is a family film of sorts, so it should hold on better than its mixed reviews would suggest. On the other hand, there is somewhat direct competition with The Boss Baby. On the high end, it will earn just over $20 million. On the low end, it will earned a little under $17 million. Splitting the difference gets us between $18 million and $19 million.

Kong: Skull Island will earn another $8 million last weekend, putting it a week away from $150 million domestically. Its international numbers are even better and the film will break even sooner rather than later.

- Ghost in the Shell Comparisons
- The Boss Baby Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, The Boss Baby, Kong: Skull Island, Power Rangers, The Lego Batman Movie, Ghost in the Shell, Beauty and the Beast