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Weekend Predictions: Furious is Fated to Outrace the Competition

April 13th, 2017

The Fate of the Furious

The headline isn’t 100% accurate, because let’s face it, there is no competition this week. The Fate of the Furious is the only wide release of the week (Spark was dropped to select cities.) and it will beat the nearest competition likely by over $100 million. It will likely earn more than the rest of the box office combined will earn. There could be a close race for second place between The Boss Baby and Beauty and the Beast, but for the most part, there will be no mystery at the box office this weekend. As for this weekend last year, it was also really one-sided. The Jungle Book opened with $103.26 million, while Barbershop: The Next Cut was a distant second with $20.24 million. The Fate of the Furious will need to match this one-two punch, or at least come close, for 2017 to continue building on its lead over 2016. I’m cautiously optimistic.

The Fate of the Furious is the latest, but not the last, installment in the Fast and the Furious franchise. The franchise didn’t earn overall positive reviews until the fifth film. Currently, the film’s reviews are 65% positive, which is lower than the five through seven earned. Some of the problems I’ve had with the franchise are coming up in a lot of the reviews, namely it has reached the point of self-parody and it looks like it could be running out of steam. This is really bad, because they are already working on the next two installments of the franchise. Fortunately for the studio, it is unlikely that the box office numbers will collapse and most expect The Fate of the Furious to open with at least $100 million. Very few people think it will compete with Furious 7’s April weekend record either. I do think the lower end is more likely than the higher end and I’m predicting $116 million over the weekend.

The Boss Baby will get knocked out of the top spot, but should still do relatively well. The film will hit $100 million on Thursday, or come very close to that mark, while I think it will earn $15 million over the weekend. There isn’t another big animated film coming out until June, so it should remain in theaters for quite some time.

Beauty and the Beast should be right behind with $14 million. This is likely the film’s last weekend in the top five, unless most of next week’s new releases bomb, but it it should stick around in theaters for a long time. The Jungle Book was playing in over 1,000 theaters for two full months.

Going in Style will remain in fourth place with between $7 million and $8 million. Its reviews are mixed, so that won’t help its legs, but its target audience rarely rushes out to see a movie opening weekend and that will help. The film could match its $25 million production budget as early as Sunday, which bodes well for its chances to eventually break even.

Smurfs: The Lost Village will fall to fifth pace with just under $7 million. The film is doing better internationally, but not by enough to help it break even. At this point, it is all about mitigating losses.

- Fate of the Furious Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Smurfs: The Lost Village, The Boss Baby, Beauty and the Beast, The Fate of the Furious, Spark: A Space Tail, Fast and the Furious
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