Analysis: Fate of the Furious Headed for $103m–$110m Opening

April 15, 2017

The Fate of the Furious

Universal just officially announced a $45.6 million estimated opening day for The Fate of the Furious. While that doesn’t put it in the top 50 days all-time, it will be the third-best day in April, behind the Friday and Saturday numbers for Furious 7, and sets the film up for a domestic opening over $100 million. Remarkably, the studio now has the film breaking Star Wars: The Force Awakens’ all-time record global weekend total of $529 million, with a projection of $534.2 million as of Saturday morning. We’ll have more on that as the weekend progresses, but for now here is how the domestic weekend might break down.

Universal is predicting a total of $103.8 million for the weekend at the moment. Our model, based on Thursday’s preview numbers, Friday’s daily box office, and reviews for the film, predicts a slightly higher number: $111.3 million. There’s a broad band of uncertainty in our model, with a minimum weekend of $97.4 million, and a maximum of $126.7 million. Given that Universal has more data to work on (in particular Saturday and Sunday pre-sales), we would expect their prediction to be a little more accurate, but it does look as though they are erring on the side of caution at this point. A good guess at the final weekend box office is something between $103 million and $110 million.

- Fate of the Furious comparison chart